Virt's Mafia [Night 1]

Author: David

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warren42
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@Speedrace
Noted.

I personally usually think it's more townie when people do it but feel like that's something people are split on.

warren42
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That said I still think he's scum
David
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Vote Count


Ragnar (2/6): speed, warren <-- L4
Warren (1/6): drafterman
Speed (1/6): Grey
Supa (1/6): oro
Disc (1/6): Ragnar 


Speedrace
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@warren42
That said I still think he's scum
Ditto
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@David
Don't think Supa is on ragnar
David
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@warren42
He's still on there as far as I can tell
Vader
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@David
had a vote on Speed then unvoted him off so I am unvoted
David
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@Vader
Fixed
Vader
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@David
Gracias my good sir
David
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@Vader
De nada 
Barney
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@Speedrace
Someone uses a random number generator to do it lol, it doesn't have to be every single user
Personally, I would not trust that player to accurately share the results, nor the randomization of how they're selected in the first place.

Neatly, for future games I do have a solution!


Each player already has their signup order listed, so we'll use that for their corresponding numbers.

For the seed, plug in the date and time of the first post (1203190425), and we get the number 10 every time (Oro). Use just the date (120319), 10 (Oro) again. Use the time of that post (0425), you get 3 every time (Warren). Use the post number (139015), and we get 1 (Speed) every time. Or course, for future games one of the numbers from the page would need to be selected ahead of time.
Speedrace
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@Barney
Fair, that sounds cool to me

However mafia could decide ahead of time who they want to lynch, find a seed for that on the page, and suggest it
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@Barney
What are the benefits of random lynching?

If we lynch randomly, then the odds of hitting scum will be (at most) 40%.

Doesn't seem like a good strategy at all from an analytical perspective. 

Can you explain why we should random lynch?
Barney
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@Speedrace
Which their insistence on one over the what every other game is using, could be revealing... Granted, to showcase how this works, I did cycle in more numbers until yours came up (wasn't assured to from that post, but it makes a better example).

Plus, as with the example we're seeing today, there's other reasons to lynch someone becomes the number generator (or lunch them, as this is a village of cannibals in service to Siri).
Speedrace
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@Barney
The "other" in that first sentence might well be the chosen Target though...
warren42
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Can we not have this discussion of meta now? Feels pointless.
Barney
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@PressF4Respect
What are the benefits of random lynching?
Honestly, I could ask you or any of the experienced players that. I'm very much still learning, but if it is to be done (as I saw people randomly VTLing each other at the start), and killing the dead weight is off limits, than I proposed for future games the most random way to do it in which everyone can check the results.

Personally, I think my SOP will be to VTL the dead weight in the first day, at least if they take too long to show up (say more than 16 hours?). Even chance to get a scum as anyone else, plus if they're a townie, they're a useless townie who truly cannot be read or otherwise contribute their voice.


If we lynch randomly, then the odds of hitting scum will be (at most) 40%.
Today they would be 18%. So I am leaning toward as my SOP if not trimming the fat, then doing a no kill on the first day. But again, I'm still learning the theory.
Speedrace
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@Barney
Posting last /= dead weight

If everyone posts within 5 minutes, the last person to post is obviously not dead weight

Barney
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@Speedrace
I think my SOP will be to VTL the dead weight in the first day, at least if they take too long to show up (say more than 16 hours?).
Posting last /= dead weight

If everyone posts within 5 minutes, the last person to post is obviously not dead weight
How are you bridging the difference between 960 minutes and 5?
Speedrace
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@Barney
I'm showing the flaw in your logic. For it to be true, it must apply to every situation.
Barney
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@Speedrace
I think my SOP will be to VTL the dead weight in the first day, at least if they take too long to show up (say more than 16 hours?).
Posting last /= dead weight
If everyone posts within 5 minutes, the last person to post is obviously not dead weight
How are you bridging the difference between 960 minutes and 5?
I'm showing the flaw in your logic. For it to be true, it must apply to every situation.
You're basically insisting showing up within 5 minutes is somehow not showing up any time within the first 960 minutes.

My logic for VTLing someone for not showing up within about 960 (16 hours), isn't flawed if it doesn't also mean we must VTL for not showing up within the first 5. While you can twist what I said to mean everyone is dead weight for not showing up spontaneously right away (first 5 minutes), the context of my message only calls them being dead weight to be trimmed after 16 hours should be clear.
Barney
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Slight typo on the above, "Posting last /= dead weight" and "If everyone posts within 5 minutes, the last person to post is obviously not dead weight" should be in the same quotation line.

Speedrace
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@Barney
You're basically insisting showing up within 5 minutes is somehow not showing up any time within the first 960 minutes.
How?

My logic for VTLing someone for not showing up within about 960 (16 hours), isn't flawed if it doesn't also mean we must VTL for not showing up within the first 5. While you can twist what I said to mean everyone is dead weight for not showing up spontaneously right away (first 5 minutes), the context of my message only calls them being dead weight to be trimmed after 16 hours should be clear.
No, that's not what I'm saying. Your logic says that the last person to post is dead weight. Therefore, if everyone posts within 5 minutes, the last person to must be dead weight; however we know that isn't true, meaning the last person to post isn't (necessarily) dead weight
Barney
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@Speedrace
You're basically insisting showing up within 5 minutes is somehow not showing up any time within the first 960 minutes.
How?
Scroll up to the part where I said "more than 16 hours."

What possible situation in which it took them more than 16 hours (960 minutes) to make their first post, did they also make that first post "within 5 minutes"?


Your logic says that the last person to post is dead weight
Again, in context I gave a 16 hour qualifier. You can check for yourself.
oromagi
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@David

Vote Count


Ragnar (2/6): speed, warren <-- L4
Warren (1/6): drafterman
Speed (1/6): Grey
Supa (1/6): oro
Disc (1/6): Ragnar 

in fact, my vote is on WaterP. (post #100)
oromagi
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I have an math professor uncle who is fond of talking about how humans don't do random, that we can't really be random even when we try.

I am on Ragnar's side regarding this "last to join" policy lynch.  I agree with Draft  & W42 that such behavior is not a particularly effective scum tell (although scum does tend to participate slower & less, generally) but more active participation is a boon to town and (in the absence of more convincing data) a policy lynch on last to joiners encourages participation.

In practice, I have never seen a player lynched for being last to join but I find the discussion of such policy improves participation so I persist in the face of drafter's derision.

speed is way too smart to accept his Vig claim prima facie but  whatever his intended gambit, I predict a low chance of success.

I wish greyparrot would just admit that he is scum so we could move on to NP.
Barney
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@oromagi
I have an math professor uncle who is fond of talking about how humans don't do random, that we can't really be random even when we try.
Not even computers can be truly random, they're just good enough at approximating it to suite our purposes.


I wish greyparrot would just admit that he is scum so we could move on to NP.
Has he done anything to imply that he's scum? ... Either way, I doubt he'd pull a Cog "I am Ironman."
Speedrace
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@Barney
Ok, but even with that qualifier, that doesn't mean anything. What of the DP was posted right before I went to bed? I'm not dead weight, but you would consider me so because of my sleep schedule? Or school in Water's case

drafterman
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Lynching speed is dumb. Even if he's lying, vig wouldn't CC, he'd just NK him. It's a problem that solves itself.
drafterman
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That said it was dumb to claim Vig in any event. Either the real vig kills you or mafia does.