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@warren42
It's possible speed is vanilla trying to draw the NK
Virt's Mafia [Night 1]
Posts
Read-only
Total:
358
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@Greyparrot
But he's just going to get NKd by the vig
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@warren42
Post #255. I think we are all in proximate agreement
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@drafterman
Not if you are the vig.
Hypothetically if Speed is not the vig but is town, I'd say he has about a 25% chance of surviving the night...
- Mafia might not trust his claim, and assume the real vig would kill him.
- The real vig likely assumes he's scum, but can get him lynched for lying.
If he's really the vig, about a 50% of surviving the night.
If he's scum, again about a 50% of surviving the night.
To not risk a mislynch tomorrow, he's got to kill a town agreed target. Technically on this were he scum, he could tell everyone who the scum kill is, but then the real vig would get him tomorrow night.
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@Greyparrot
If I was the vig I would definitely kill him
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@Barney
Sin instead of VTL we do VFV? (vote for Vig)
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@Greyparrot
Would you mind clarifying those terms, just in case I'm confused...
I mean VTL (vote to lynch) is clear, I assume the VTV revers to us voting and trusting the vig to obey, but what about the Sin? (might be a typo...)
If Speed is really the vig, let him kill me tonight as he is planning (which avoids him being mislynched tomorrow). If anyone else is, they would have the choice between him, or anyone else... So maybe we should do two-tier voting? By which I mean we have our formal VTL which Virt will enact, but we have a second one (the VTG unless I'm mistaken) for the vig to take under advisement. Of course they'll have up to 24 hours to think things through, so they might do a better analysis in hindsight than we do in the moment.
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@Barney
If he really is the vig then he dies tonight. Mafia have no reason not to kill him, theres no protective, or investigative roles to implicate them. The vigilante is the only role that's actually harmful to mafia. They will be on him tonight, there's no reason for mafia to believe he is a vanilla fake claiming vig. There's too much risk in that ploy, if he was actually lying as town. Only reason I could think of him to do that would be to try and bait the mafia nk, and he would have to risk letting the actual vig CC him to do that. As mafia he simply wouldn't do something this brash, it's out of character for him. He played so careful and conservative in the office mafia, he literally let me (a potential mis-lynch) stay alive for like 4 DP's instead of going for the easy lynch, because he was careful and patient.
His plan is only to kill you if you aren't lynched, it wasn't his "original plan" it was his back up plan. I get you are just defending yourself but that is dishonest to frame it that way.
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@Barney
Granted, the last game I played (and only forum game) had a lot of MIA scum.
Link please?
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@warren42
Yes. Though I'm always in favor of D1 lynches.
D1 lynches are a must. Speeds up POE so towards the end it’s easier to identify scum
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@PressF4Respect
Well I guess we should lunch Water because he hasn’t gotten a chance to be online during this game.
This and post 84 seem like a half a** attempt to lynch Water.
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@Barney
Hypothetically if Speed is not the vig but is town, I'd say he has about a 25% chance of surviving the night...
- Mafia might not trust his claim, and assume the real vig would kill him.
- The real vig likely assumes he's scum, but can get him lynched for lying.
If he's really the vig, about a 50% of surviving the night.If he's scum, again about a 50% of surviving the night.To not risk a mislynch tomorrow, he's got to kill a town agreed target. Technically on this were he scum, he could tell everyone who the scum kill is, but then the real vig would get him tomorrow night.
All of these percentages are made up, there's no statistical probability that favors those numbers.
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@Lunatic
When did I call killing me tonight his "original plan" as you have quoted me?
You're a good debater, lying about direct quotations is beneath you.
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@oromagi
Why isn’t last to show sufficiently random?
Premise was established a long time ago when people were already active, therefore not random
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@Barney
"If Speed is really the vig, let him kill me tonight as he is planning "
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@warren42
It's confirmed that there is a vig, so no, he could theoretically lying and we still have two deaths.
Speed can’t lie. If he kills Ragnar he’s town. If Ragnar does not die, he’s not town and we lynch. Plain and simple.
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@warren42
Why not both?
I’m fine with that as long we as town establish who he shoots. Either Ragnar gets lynched and someone dies or someone else gets lynched and Ragnar dies. Either can confirm Speed.
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@warren42
That said I still think he's scum
Which is irrelevant since Ragnar is going to die.
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@ILikePie5
Granted, the last game I played (and only forum game) had a lot of MIA scum.Link please?
MCU Mafia, multiple replacements were needed (which got analyzed a lot), we even had a Mafia member need to leave so basically confess at the end of DP1 to get out early. I was Mafia that game, and when not all Mafia members even joined the scum chat, it's a problem.
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@Greyparrot
@drafterman
@oromagi
@Speedrace
@PressF4Respect
What are the benefits of random lynching?If we lynch randomly, then the odds of hitting scum will be (at most) 40%.Doesn't seem like a good strategy at all from an analytical perspective.Can you explain why we should random lynch?
This directly goes against what Press said in Post 84
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@oromagi
I wish greyparrot would just admit that he is scum so we could move on to NP.
Can you please elaborate?
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@Lunatic
ive got my vote down, lets lynch rag today and continue activity tomorrow.
No, let Speed kill him and confirm his town status
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@oromagi
we seem to be assuming that he made some kind of rookie mistake by outing as vig but my read of speed is that he is much smarter and more careful than that kind of move. I strongly doubt that speed is vig but that does not inform the question of scum.
Either way, he’s dead. If he’s lying he gets lynched or shot by the real vig himself or mafia.
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@Lunatic
If Speed is really the vig, let him kill me tonight as he is planning (which avoids him being mislynched tomorrow).it wasn't his "original plan" it was his back up plan. I get you are just defending yourself but that is dishonest to frame it that way.When did I call killing me tonight his "original plan" as you have quoted me?You're a good debater, lying about direct quotations is beneath you."If Speed is really the vig, let him kill me tonight as he is planning "
You're now repeatedly insisting the quotation is there, rather than just apologizing for a obviously dishonest misquotation... So again, if you're not full of shit, where did I say "original plan" as you directly quoted me?
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@Barney
I was Mafia that game, and when not all Mafia members even joined the scum chat, it's a problem.
They weren’t inactive tho...
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@David
VTL Press
His contradiction is scummy
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@ILikePie5
I was Mafia that game, and when not all Mafia members even joined the scum chat, it's a problem.They weren’t inactive tho...
Reviewing just one of them who was not replaced... How many pages in did Cogent_Cognizer make his first post? How many posts total?
He posted nothing for a couple days, only to make 6 posts total, starting at 309, ending at 314 (with basically his suicide).
So if that is not inactive, what is?
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@Barney
Club was a bit of a chum for quitting mid game
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@ILikePie5
He can't lie he just played this so idiotically