---Lucid Dreamers Mafia: DP 2---

above

My take on all of this is that scum has to be either supa or sa cause Lunatic's been playing wayy to pro-town so he can't be scum. 

Why do you guys think press visited supa?

i visited you, and nothing came out... press did not visit me. we tracked you, not deathproof

Post #5...

And what do you mean I wasn't deathproof?

There was no reason for you to be sealed when all I did was track you

What's sealed mean

Deathproof used

I used it cause I thought I was gonna get nk'd not cause I thought you were tracking me??

Here is my analysis of how likely it is each of us is the mafia.

Lunatic: I'll start with him because he is the easiest. Firstly, his behavior has been very pro-town. Secondly, it makes almost no sense if he is mafia. Starting with the whole "I was a sensor" thing before any of us had the chance to post would be an incredibly risky bluff. No matter what action he took during the night, there would be no way for him to prevent us from finding out something about him and proving that he's lying. Consequently, if he was mafia, he would not have done something that could so easily have blown up in his face.

WaterPhoenix: WP is also easy simply because there is so little evidence about him. If Lunatic is correct that either himself, me, or Supa is mafia, then WP must be town. Since there is no reason for Lunatic to lie, this is almost certain. Almost. The only way WP could be mafia is if he used a bus on Lunatic during the night, thereby switching any results anyone would get from acting on them. This would mean that Lunatic did not sensor himself, me, and Supa, but instead censored me, Supa, and WP, giving a mafia result where it didn't belong. The reason that WP would have had to switch with Lunatic is Supa's result that WP didn't visit anyone in the night, and the only person who WP could switch with that didn't visit anyone in the night was Lunatic. This scenario seems highly contrived to me, and there is no evidence to support it. It is purely speculative.

SirAnonymous: If Lunatic is telling the truth and WP did not use a bus to switch himself with Lunatic, both of which are reasonably safe assumptions, then I am one of two suspects and must be inspected very closely. The best evidence against me is that I admitted to tracking PressF during the night. On its face, this is neither scummy or towny, as anyone could have visited PressF. Theoretically speaking, however, I could have said this to preempt anyone who might have tracked me and found that I visited PressF, making me a likely suspect. The only other evidence against me that I can think of at the moment is that, in DP1, it looked a lot like I was buddying up with Lunatic. Put together, these two pieces of evidence make a plausible case, so it is necessary to defend myself. Firstly, if I was mafia, I would not have done nearly so much analysis that could be useful for the town. Secondly, and this is a far better defense, at least in my opinion, I am not mafia because, if I am, I am hopelessly bungling the job. Assuming I'm mafia, let's examine what ScumAnonymous did. I began by buddying with Lunatic so that, if he died, I would look town. I also acted very pro-town in DP1 to trick people. Then, I - what? Fail to kill Lunatic, completely spoiling the whole point of buddying with him? Instead, I kill PressF for reasons unknown, leaving Lunatic, the most active and analytical, and therefore the most dangerous, DP1 towny, alive. Apparently regaining my senses, I claim to have tracked PressF so that anyone who tracked me would think I visited him for innocent reasons. But why would I do that when there were better options? If I wanted to avoid detection, I should have used the bus so that anyone tracking me would get results for someone else and then claimed something that no one could contradict, like making myself bulletproof. Simply put, I'm not mafia because I would not have played that stupidly. Of course, this could be a WIFOM strategy to make myself look innocent. But consider what you would have done as mafia:

1. Deliberately play a sub-optimal style in the hopes of convincing people that it makes no sense for me to be mafia

2. Play optimally so I don't have to convince people in the first place.

SupaDudz: Now we come to it. Firstly, SupaDudz was almost silent in DP1. He did no analysis, and the only thing he did that was pro-town was VTNL, which could just as easily be a mafia trying to look town. Thanks to Lunatic, he is one of the two prime suspects. Most importantly, I know I'm town, so he is almost certainly mafia (which is useless to the rest of you, since you have no way to tell if I'm lying). On the other hand, his claim that he tracked WP without first knowing what WP said is not indicative of being mafia. If he did not actually track WP, that would be an incredibly risky thing to say. But on the other hand, it provides a perfect alibi as a mafia. Think of it: Supa gambles that he is more likely to be caught by saying something about his night actions that is provably false than by being tracked or copped. He rolls the dice and decides to actually do what he will claim: track WP. That way, no one would catch him lying because he was actually telling the truth. Luckily for him, the only person who decides to track him is also the person that he decided to kill. In the end, the only person who could prove that Supa is mafia is dead.

After writing this, I am actually less convinced that Supa did it than I was before. While I think he would be the type to make such a gamble, the odds of him randomly killing the one person who randomly decided to track him are pretty low. In contrast, the odds of WP bussing over other options don't seem so bad. The only thing that would have led to a contradiction is if he bussed someone who visited him, giving Supa the result that WP visited WP during the night. 

Overall, I'm not sure whether Supa or WP did it. I'm almost wondering if we should VTNL so the next round is 2-1 and we have more info.

One thing that I don't understand is why the mafia killed PressF. What's the motivation? Wouldn't it have made more sense to kill a highly active player like Lunatic or me?

This is really sad, but if I was Lunatic and I had to choose, I think I would lynch me. Of course, I am also highly inexperienced and unfamiliar with scum-tells, so I'm sure he's seen things I've missed.

Maybe, supa made his role a PGO, I mean that would make sense right? Just forgot since it has to be either supa or me...

I forgot to tag you in my above comments.

VTNLing seems like a better and better option but I'm like 99.99% sure supa's the mafia. I'll vtnl if we're running out of time, but for now, my vote's staying.

Why him and not me? I'm curious to know your reasoning. It may help me figure it out.

Why do you think it's water? At this point, it's important to know exactly why we think someone is guilty. You may have caught something I missed.

Let's try a thought experiment. Based purely on behavior and not logic, who would you say is town and who is mafia?

I would say that Lunatic is definitely town, supra seems a little scummy, and WP is somewhere in between.

Supa why would you vote water? You tracked him and saw him visit no one... Also if you think there is any chance that he is lying then your pegging me as a liar since my results peg him as town. It can only be one mafia.

I think supa just scum slipped

Why not you? Is this reverse psychology to get me to believe you're town? Or is it you being mafia and making me think you're town? halpppppp. Whatever the case is I think your town cause, well I mean you're playing very pro-town and are as active as Lunatic is.

And by behavior alone:

Town: WaterPhoenix (me)- I know I'm town

Town: Lunatic- All the stuff he's done is pro-town

Lean town: Sir Anonymous- Pretty sure he's town I mean he's posting enough

Scum: Supa- Process of deduction says he's scum, and he wasn't very active first dp either

You could be right. While there is one way WP could be mafia, Supa gave no indication of knowing what it was. He provided no reasoning for his decision to vote for water. There is still one reason for his vote: immediately before he changed his vote, water voted to lynch him. It's not proof by any means, but it makes things look really bad for Supa.

I messed up with my memory. Supa vtl'ed water before water vtl'ed Supa.

I second Lunatic's question: why did you vtl water?

I third it

I'm leaning supadudz

Vtl supa for the scum slip

Incorrect, I did not say that. I got a “no result” meaning it was blocked, am right?