Perhaps what is also telling above, is that Pie never once suggested VTL'ing Oro/Speed2, and even defended them. I think this coupled with Wylted's theory that it was more experienced players who tried to scumread him(and later being killed by Mafia, perhaps as a way to silence him to make sure he doesn't provide further reason to suspect exp players, which killing Wylted is also a new-player mistake, further making us suspect new players, which xp players would want us to do)
---Celebrity Mafia: DP3---
Posts
Total:
197
So, here are my reads given the above info:
Definitely Scum:
Speed2(oro)
Likely Scum:
Mharman - tried to make us believe new players were behind the NK, also fits with Wylted's theory of scum being xp players.
Assuming three scum players, everyone else is by POE, likely town.
Definitely Scum:
Speed2(oro)
Likely Scum:
Mharman - tried to make us believe new players were behind the NK, also fits with Wylted's theory of scum being xp players.
Assuming three scum players, everyone else is by POE, likely town.
To cast reason to doubt that Supa is scum as others have claimed:
We already made the mistake of assuming a new player giving off scum reads was scum(PressF), furthermore, Wylted, me, PressF, all pretty much confirmed town, all could have decided to give obvious scumreads in order for scum to jump on lynching them so we can figure out who is scum. And, ofc, Supa doesn't fit with Wylted's theory of xp players.
We already made the mistake of assuming a new player giving off scum reads was scum(PressF), furthermore, Wylted, me, PressF, all pretty much confirmed town, all could have decided to give obvious scumreads in order for scum to jump on lynching them so we can figure out who is scum. And, ofc, Supa doesn't fit with Wylted's theory of xp players.
NVM, not sure why I thought Supa was new(looked at members in previous games, Supa has been in quite a few), so I suppose I can't determine right now he is scum or town.
That being the case, I think I will replace Mhar with Supa as being likely scum:
So my adjusted one is:
Scum:
Definetely:
Speed2(oro)
Likely:
Supa
Everyone else likely town.
So my adjusted one is:
Scum:
Definetely:
Speed2(oro)
Likely:
Supa
Everyone else likely town.
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@Mharman
Sorry for the likely scum accusation. For some reason I thought Supa was new.
There are no other new players besides me and Press right?
There are no other new players besides me and Press right?
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@Mharman
So being visited disturbs your sleep? Good to know, I will avoid visiting you then.
I don't like it when people try to draw reads based on who died in the night. There are several reasons I can think of why the scum team would want Wylted dead over CC, and possibly several reasons that I can't think of because of information the scum have access to that I don't.
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@Cogent_Cognizer
I ask for everyone to do a full role/character claim right now.
I second this and will repost my role and character now.
I am Theo James, compulsive visitor.
I am not loving this focus on how experienced players are. It carries with it the implied assumption that newer players play more poorly just because they are newer, which is not an assumption that has much in the way of historical supporting evidence.
I am not loving this focus on how experienced players are. It carries with it the implied assumption that newer players play more poorly just because they are newer, which is not an assumption that has much in the way of historical supporting evidence.
Well, it stems to Wylted's theory in DP2 about the likely mafia being the ones who were experienced that scum-claimed him for those scum-slips. I'm not making this theory myself, but I think I trust Wylted's later theories in DP2, given I don't think he would want to be wrong a second time since he was for Dp1 lynch,
Might be me overthinking again, but why wasn't Pie's role "Actress" but ninja instead? Given the person they were, they were a real-life actress. Seems to be the most obvious role to give her. Given what the role Actress says though,
"you will appear, upon...death, to have that role and affiliation."
So, a possibility that happened was that pie could have taken on the role and affiliation(mafia v town), of a Mafia member. But this wouldn't change the description that BSH1 would give him of being that real-life actress.
Anyone else consider this possibillity? Shoot, I wonder if we did just lynch yet another town member.
For that matter, Wylted was James Dean(yet another actor).
Are we to believe BSH1, in a Celebrity Mafia wouldn't have the actor/actress role In it?
If we assume the worst and Pie was somehow town and used the actress power and got the affiliation and role of a mafia member, this means we likely still have 3 scum alive.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
If you're being truthful about being Theo James, it seems you also are a real-life actor, and thus justification to have the actor/actress role.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Also, what you said:
...are town, probably Grey and Speed as well.
F**k I have to admit, the possibility of an actor role would totally blow away most of my theory so far.
Unvote
Wish I heard from other people. Seems everyone is quiet right now except Disc.
Unvote
Wish I heard from other people. Seems everyone is quiet right now except Disc.
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@Cogent_Cognizer
Wish I heard from other people. Seems everyone is quiet right now except Disc.
It is 5 AM so just be patient. People will come on.
I am driving home now. As promised I will explain my scum read on Supa when I get home.
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@Mharman
@Cogent_Cognizer
Can I remind y'all that I whipped both of you last game? Give me some credit at least lol xD
That's genuine scum hunting though so it's cool, I am confused as to why Wylted was NKd over CC although I could offer theories as to why
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@Cogent_Cognizer
What's your time zone? Getting ready for school so I'll try to reply later because I haven't caught up yet
Okay so, Supa... Right.
He was on my scum list as far back as DP 1 due to POE and general bad vibes. Since then he has remained a good POE lynch but the more specific and firm reasons for scum reading him begin to form in DP 2 when the wagon on pie started picking up steam.
At first there were two main wagons, one on me and one on Pie. Because of this I decided to role claim to get attention focused off me and on to pie because I was convinced he was scum. It was not until after I claimed that Supa voted for me "to see my response" (post 176)
Is it a scum tell that he voted for me? No. Obviously not. Voting for townies is a thing that townies do all the time. It is the reasoning that he gave for the vote that caught my eye. "to see his response"... I had already claimed at that point, what response was he expecting to elicit? This feels like a vague excuse given to desperately try to remove attention from a scum partner.
This is supported later on in page ten where as Warren points out supa was verbally saying that he was opposed to the pie wagon (post 224 he says pie is definitely town) but when asked to list his reads Supa lists pie as scum. Again, is it suspicious to town read someone that is scum? No. Townies do that all the time. The fact that Supa simultaneously town read him but listed him as scum in his list though... That feels like scum trying to save their partner but also preparing a defense to cover their ass in case their partner does get lynched.
Actually I like that Warren pointed this out last DP. I had Warren as a lynch candidate purely by POE but if Supa flips as scum Warren is town confirmed in my eyes. Still very likely town even if Supa is town actually... I will have to revisit my POE accordingly.
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@Cogent_Cognizer
F**k I have to admit, the possibility of an actor role would totally blow away most of my theory so far.
As Wylted and I already tried to explain, you are way too focused on roles and night actions etc. and not focused enough on behavior during the DP. Behavior analysis is what caught us our first scum when we lynched pie, and behavior analysis such as what I just posted about Supa is what will catch the rest of them as well.
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@Speedrace
Have you or Oro full claimed yet? I think we have our second scum but we still need to find our third. I think a mass claim like CC suggested will help with this.
There is no reason to worry about hiding power roles any more now that we have 2 claimed power roles already.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
I'm about to claim as soon as bsh answers a question I sent him, I might be able to confirm your theory though once he does because I think I might've been a little dumb recently xD
Heading out for school so I'll be back on in between periods when I can
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@Speedrace
What's your time zone?
Pacific
I tend to be a night owl loll. If you've noticed I make most of my posts between like 6 pm and 6 am pacific time.
I tend to be a night owl loll. If you've noticed I make most of my posts between like 6 pm and 6 am pacific time.
All town visitors should visit CD from now on in order to avoid unintentionally disrupting any power roles the way CC unintentionally disrupted Mharman last night.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Yeah, a lot of what you're saying makes sense. I definitely tend to overthink things too much. I should just stick to analyzing player behavior and not try to make it fit a potential role like I've been doing.
But yeah, I'm going to keep a no vote until we get more full claims. I suggest doing the same, or perhaps we VTNL for the time being. We don't want the day to end before we get everyone to claim.
But yeah, I'm going to keep a no vote until we get more full claims. I suggest doing the same, or perhaps we VTNL for the time being. We don't want the day to end before we get everyone to claim.
Just to remind everyone:
I'm Pita Taufatofua, Tracker.
I'm Pita Taufatofua, Tracker.