Running Primary Poll Thread

I doubt it, but there's different sides to the guy and he's been doing what he does for a long time, so he's been able to get away with things other's couldn't swing.  The "Trump was right" effect only worked because people got hung up on the way he says lots of little lies in more informal settings that people didn't take seriously, and made his embellishments obvious.  I think its more important that he have a professional side that his adversaries may look over but that honest observers will see.  He needs to project work ethic, and that energizer bunny attitude. 

If I had a choice, it'd be Sanders. 

However reality is often disappointing and either Biden or Trump will win. 

Out of the two, I'd like Biden better. 

He's still a shit choice but Trump is 100 times worse. 

Nice Orangemanbad synopsis.

A Pew research poll put out recently, asking more then just a quick 'which candidate do you like the most' has revealed what may be the BIGGEST piece of information that could decide who wins the nomination. 

About halfway down on page 1 of the article, shown here: https://www.people-press.org/2019/08/16/most-democrats-are-excited-by-several-2020-candidates-not-just-their-top-choice/ there is a table showing which candidate that certain candidates would support if their current number one candidate dropped out for whatever reason. 

Some of the info is quite surprising. While Sanders supporters would flip towards Warren the most (23%) is not that far fetched, just about every other scenario DOES go against initial expectations. 

1 - If Biden dropped out, Harris would benefit the most and get the most of his voter base (24%), a ten point difference between any other candidate

2 - If Warren dropped out, her voter base would be split up somewhat evenly. Sanders would get 29%, Harris 31%, Biden 22%

3 - If Sanders dropped out, Warren would get 23% of her base, but Biden would get almost just as much at 16%

However, the biggest one is what happens with Harris. 

4 - If Harris dropped out, 39% of her voter base would flip to Warren, 20% higher than the number that would go to Biden at second place

I've believed up to this point that if Sanders and Warren keep splitting the very liberal voter base while the more centrist and moderate wing coalesces around Biden, he will get the nomination before either Sanders or Warren drops out and the other gets their base.... However, Kamala Harris is now the possible king maker here. If Harris were to drop out very early in the primary season for whatever reason, Warren would far and away benefit the most from it and gain in the polls afterwards.... If that were to happen, it could lead to a domino effect where Warren emerges as the candidate for the very liberal part of the base, which could siphon off support that Sanders has, which could put Warren into a position to beat Biden or at least go toe-to-toe with him in the second half of the race.... It would all depend on how early Harris drops out, and whether or not she still has enough of a base to give Warren a noticeable bump in support to sway Sanders supporters to jump ship. 

There are two other notes of interest from the poll that can be easily missed, but is critical in deciding who the nominee will become. Right before and then after the discussion about second choice candidates, the article notes  that:

"A relatively large proportion of black Democrats (45%) express no preference in the open-ended question"

and

"30% of Democratic women voters express no preference for the nomination."

HALF of black voters who are Democrats do not have a current preference of a candidate and are undecided, as well as 30% of female voters. Thats HUGE..... If one half of all black voters have not picked a candidate they would prefer, and one third of female voters also havent picked a candidate to back, then whoever is the candidate that makes the strongest appeals to those two voter blocs could lock down the nomination entirely. 

Just about every major candidate can pull this off..... Kamala Harris, as a black woman, could easily appeal to both of these factions equally just by showing that she knows what its like to be black and a woman, yet Biden already enjoys a massive lead in black support (29% total compared to 10% for Harris) since he was Vice President during the Obama administration, and polls very strongly with women as well.... Warren has the second most support of women (14%, Biden in first with 24%) but she struggles hard with black support (4%) and could enormously benefit from their support if they start to pick a side (more on that later).... Sanders does below average with women and black voters, the only category he leads in is youth voters (24%) who can be notoriously unreliable when it comes to actually voting. 

But while women and black voters could decide who becomes the nominee, there is another part of the article that indicates who they might support in the end. 

Its also in this last bit of info may be Biden's big secret. His ace in the hole for why his numbers have always been so high. 

"Biden draws more support among Democrats who are Protestants and Catholics – 38% of Catholics name him as their first choice – than among religiously unaffiliated Democrats (18%)."

The religious wing of the Democratic Party MASSIVELY backs Biden over all of the other major candidates in the race right now. Catholics support Biden 38% while all other candidates COMBINED only get supported by Catholics 37%. (24% undecided)... This number gets MORE massive when examining white Catholics, then it goes up to 45% for Biden, 38% for everyone else combined, just 17% undecided

Similar results also happen with Protestants. 29% of all protestants back Biden, all other candidates get 8% at best, with 36% undecided.... This number grows in favor of Biden even more when examining BLACK protestants amazingly. Biden gets 34% of their support while all other candidates combined only get 21% (although a massive 46% are still undecided) 

While Warren's route to the nomination may depend on Harris and Sanders dropping out early in the race to position herself as the strongest alternative to Biden, Biden's path to the nomination could already be decided if he can simply manage to retain the base he already has, and keeps appealing to religious and black voters who are still undecided, since those two back Biden's campaign more than any other candidate by a wide margin..... Given his history as Obama's VP while also being able to campaign on legislation he worked on as a Senator in defense of women, he could very well pull this off and lock up the nomination before anyone else has a chance to position themselves as his prime rival. 

WARREN! WARREN! OOH ah OOH ah OOOOOOOOH!

Is Biden still winning? 

Joe Biden is still polling higher than the other candidates.

Fuckin figures that the day after I post an update that RCP uploads THREE new polls onto their site that shifts the whole field. Ill try to keep things short and to the point 

BIGGEST DEVELOPMENTS:  

1 - Sanders supplants Warren as the #2 candidate

2 - Pete Buttigieg is effectively a major candidate

3 - Sanders collapsing in Nevada

4 - Biden pretty much has South Carolina locked up 

Lets dive into this. 

#1

In the three most recent polls to be uploaded onto the site, Sanders polled ahead of Warren in all three of them, and in the 5 of the last 7 polls taken nationally he has also been ahead of Warren. This is not the end of Warren's campaign though by any stretch, because Warren only trails Sanders by 1 point in two of the polls, and the two have routinely swapped positions in the race throughout the primaries. The two candidates have been 2nd or 3rd place dating back to May, except for one stretch where Kamala Harris leapfrogged both of them following a strong initial debate performance, but she has now slid back into fourth place. 

Bidens numbers on average hover around the low 30's to high 20's, while Sanders and Warren are usually in the high teens.... Harris meanwhile, as I pointed out earlier, has lost just about all the support she had gained following her first debate performance, and is now in danger of dropping into 5th place, which brings us to the Pete Buttigieg story. 

#2 

In 2 of the 3 most recent polls, Sanders beat out Warren by one point. In those same two polls, Kamala Harris is shown at a tie with Pete Buttigieg, both getting 5% in one poll and 8% in another poll.... With Beto O Rourke's campaign continually imploding as well as other moderates like Hickenlooper beginning to withdraw, Pete Buttigieg may be trying to position himself as the more moderate candidate after Biden. If Buttigieg manages to sway some undecided female and black voters to support his campaign, he could very well push into the top tier of the top candidates and have a solid ability to last long in the primary race. 

#3

The last thing to note is that in some of the individual state races, not many polls have been uploaded. A large number of polling information we see is usually taken at a nation-wide level, rather than within a specific state that has an early primary. Iowa and New Hampshire havent had new poll information in about two to three weeks now, but Nevada and South Carolina have (in the past week), and the numbers are in Bidens favor.

For now. 

In Nevada, the 3rd state that will hold a primary this year behind Iowa and New Hampshire, Biden's lead has dropped from a 15 point margin to a 10 point margin. Still a big lead, but a concerning regression nonetheless. While Billionaire candidate Bob Steyer managed to swing an impressive 6 points in the most recent Nevada poll, Sanders regressed from a 23% performance down to 10%, almost putting him behind Harris at 9% whose numbers havent shifted much. No other candidate appears to have absorbed this 13 point dropoff from Sanders (Though Warren did get boosted 3 points compared to the last poll) and an answer for what might have happened appears in the poll itself 

Page 2 of the poll results show that the biggest chunk of undecided voters are Asian voters and Hispanic voters, both groups currently at about 16.5% undecided. Of Asian voters who do have a preference though, who they back is a bit of a surprise 

1st = Biden at 19% (He wins nearly every demographic minus the youngest age bloc) 

2nd and 3rd = Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang, at 14.6% each.... Both candidates are Asian which partially explains this 

4th and 5th = Bernie Sanders and Tom Steyer, at 11.8%

Tom Steyer is a billionaire businessman who only recently entered the race for the Democratic Nomination (July 7th), and polled 1% in the Nevada poll taken around the time he announced his campaign. His surge in the state and large number of Hispanic backers may be the reason why Sanders numbers have effectively collapsed in the state of Nevada... Steyers 5 point gain and Warrens 3 point gain combined could represent over half of the support Bernie lose since the last poll to come out of the state (he dropped 13 points).... If Steyer is playing people in Nevada well enough, he could very well spoil Bernie's chances of a top 3 candidate finish behind Biden, Warren, and Harris. 

#4

The last state with somewhat recent polling info is South Carolina, where a poll from the second week of August shows Biden at 36%, Warren at 17%, and Sanders at 16% https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/biden-keeps-large-lead-in-sc-s-democratic-presidential-primary/article_d5064164-be11-11e9-8de3-03c1577ccfa6.html

While Biden's lead has shrunk from almost 30 points overall to 20 points, a 20% difference between first and second place is basically not even a contest anymore. In fact, his lead in South Carolina is the largest of any candidate in any early primary state as of right now, and that doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon.... This is because black voters account for more than 60 percent of all ballots cast in South Carolina Democratic presidential primaries, and Biden does incredibly well with black voters thanks to the fact that he was Obama's Vice President for 8 years. 

Even when I used to be a trendy anti-SJW conservative in middle school I still hated him as a person and I hated a lot of his policies.  

Nowadays I hate him as a person and I hate his policies so overall to me he's a bad choice. 

Joe Biden. Wooo.

Thanks for putting in the time. Don't really see the worth in it but oh well. Cool anyway.

Its just one of the many oddly specific hobbies I like to pour three hours of my life into every once in a while :P 

- Extensive poll analysis 

- Mobile Airline simulation games 

- Miscellaneous tv show Fanfiction writing 

- General manager mode in Madden 19 

CALLED IT 

Jay Inslee recently announced he is suspending his presidential campaign and instead will shift gears to running for a third term as Governor of Washington state, per the Associated Press: https://news.yahoo.com/washington-gov-jay-inslee-says-011311347.html

He is declining to endorse anyone but to the surprise of no one said he will support whoever is the eventual nominee. 

It was a synopsis, chill.

And what was the point of the synopsis if it wasn't being used to poke fun at my comment? After all orange man bad is a common joke amongst conservatives since it's poking fun at trendy hipsters hating on Trump for no reason. 

lol

Any news to report?

I heard Biden was doing bad but in other polls he wasn't.

So....

Thank in advance mister I know how to read poll and I am going to make a DA forum topic and discuss it.

He may have just shit the bed actually, there are two polls that came out recently showing him tied with Warren and Sanders but im still going through the data and all cause im tryna figure out shit

Ima just do a regular update because I swear I was about 80% through a heavy analysis of two polls that showed Biden tied with Warren and Sanders, took a two day break, and when I checked again there were SIX MORE POLLS uploaded in that time and also a candidate dropped out of the race

So lets get into it

After getting axed from the next debate for failing to do well enough in the polls to qualify (10 others have qualified, the main threshold to qualify being getting at least 2% support in polls a couple times), Gillibrand decided to end her candidacy for president. She is still early on in her term as a senator for New York (She was re-elected in 2018 just a year ago) so she had no pressure in terms of future career in politics to drop out, unlike Inslee who is up for re-election as governor of Washington. 

Gillibrand has said she will instead use what resources she has left to try to help more women get elected to Congress, and has declined to endorse anyone. 

Of the 10 polls that have come out after the 18th, four of them have had Sanders polling at 20%, four more have him down near 15%, and one has him almost as high as 25%. No other candidate in the race, by far, has shown this kind of randomness in support in polls, and my best guess for why this is for Sanders is because his support is built heavily around the youth vote, the most sporadic and erratic voter base in the population when it comes to actual turnout....

Sanders is also seeing some of his support being poached by Warren and Biden. 

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/b17i8aeg5p/econTabReport.pdf = Pg 163 for this week

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u4gcv1suy6/econTabReport.pdf = Pg 75 for last week

When analyzing candidates people would consider supporting, Biden went up from 45% to 47%, while Warren, who actually leads in this category, went from 50% to 53% as well. This could be a sign that people are just more open to them then before as possible nominees if just looking at those numbers, but Sanders shows him LOSING consideration with voters. The percentage of people who would vote for him dropped from 44% to 41%. 

While that doesnt sound like much, losing 3% of your support when the two other main candidates both gain 3% opens up a sizable gap between Sanders and Warren + Biden 

No other candidate had as big of a swing in either direction compared to Sanders in terms of negativity, or Biden + Warren in terms of positivity. With no other candidate really getting voters attention outside of the big 3*, Warren and Biden gaining attention from voters while Sanders loses attention indicates that bit by bit, he may be losing his supporters to the other two campaigns. 

(* There was actually a candidate who went from 7% to 11% in consideration, but it was Gillibrand who just dropped out)

The poll I trust the most, Economist/YouGov, for the past several weeks showed Biden slowly hemorrhaging voters over time. From 8/3 up to 8/17, Biden slowly and steadily lost support based on the very same polls taken at regular intervals. Its not just one particular segment of his base that just dropped through the floor though, his numbers shrank across the board whether it be older voters, black voters, or female voters. 

This week though, Biden looks like he may have recovered some ground. His favorability is up among white voters (35% up to 38%), Male voters (39% to 43%), and his biggest gain was among black voters (62% increased to 68%) 

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/b17i8aeg5p/econTabReport.pdf = Page 117 this week

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/u4gcv1suy6/econTabReport.pdf = Page 25 for last week

In the month of August, four polls prior to this week had her at 20% or higher, while 9 polls had her closer to 15%, with two polls having her almost in single digits at 10%.... Based on the ultra-analytical Economist/YouGov polls that I favor though, Warren has been holding on around the 18% to 20% since late July and hasnt budged..... In the short term this means that her base is very hard to poach by other candidates such as Sanders or Harris, and that in the long run her campaign is built to last barring some sort of crazy meltdown or tremendous gaffe. 

However, this fact can be lost when looking at other polls that have her much higher or (usually) much lower then that. If these other polls push the idea that Warren is doing worse then she actually is, thats a massive fuckin problem for her campaign. One look at certain polls could convince people that Sanders is still the candidate to represent the far-left faction of the Democratic base against the more Centrist/moderate Biden, and could also convince people against Biden at all costs that Sanders is their best bet to denying him the nomination. 

Biden woo.

Hope he wins. 

Havent updated in a while since polls havent been coming out and Dorian is sporadically knocking out my internet connection here in Jacksonville, but the new polls that have come out have basically reiterated the same points from before 

1 - Bernies support is damn near impossible to hammer down (polls have him anywhere from 12 to 20%, and im certain this is because his support is driven by young voters who are incredibly volatile in terms of turnout and representation) 

2 - Harris and Buttigieg are no longer major candidates (Harris hit 5% in recent polls that I believe are the most accurate, Buttigieg now hasnt been above 5% since 8/25 when he hit 6%)

A resposnse that people didnt get that a was a joke! YEAH

Oh, so you are a democrat pretending to be a republican making stupidcomments to make republicans look dumb?

No just, sign nevermind

Just perpetuating the stereotype?