Pokemon Mafia DP 3

Author: warren42

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#121
WaterPhoenix
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@bsh1
Alright

Bsh1: probably scum but is yet to be decided because he VtTL'd me to "get me active"
oromagi: Didn't read enough of his posts for a read
mharman: Town helped town and has done nothign suspicious
Phione: Scum not very active and everyone thinks he's scum if I hadn't voted you I'd have voted him.
Wylted: Town, seems like he's done nothign suspicous, but Wylted if you're reading this whyd you vote me???????? Are you ok?
Pie: Town, people think he's scum but he seems like he's genuinely trying to help I'd say and is fairly active.
Club: Town, he's doctor
Supa: Same as oro
Speedrace: Town, contributing to town efforts.

#122
WaterPhoenix
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Oh, and I'm going on vaca for 2 weeks so don't expect me to be active, and you guys are was too paranoid about how much I'm active I have a life outside of playing mafia games on online debate forums ya know.
#123
ILikePie5
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@bsh1
This is important, because Club claims to be an "even-day poison doctor." Given Warren's reply to me, Club's claim can only be true if and only if there are either (a) two poisoners in the game or (b) one poisoner who can fake poison someone. This information opens up some permutations of reality.

If Club’s claim of PD is true then B cannot happen cause there would be no need of a PD.


Club could be mafia lying about his role and there is no PD in this game; instead, there is only a poisoner who can fake poison, thus allowing Club to get his mafia fake claim role-confirmed.

So what you’re saying is that Club could be a Fake Poisoner and would Claim Poison Doctor just to get confirmed. If this is true then that’s some wack mod bs.

Club could be town telling the truth about his role and did not save Wylted because Wylted was fake-poisoned

If this is true he wouldn’t be playing to his win condition.
#124
ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
SO MUCH stuff to do before school starts do I'm gonna get back to you tomorrow with more analysis

What grade u goin to bud
#125
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@WaterPhoenix
Did you VTL me? that's very very very suspicious gotta go with Mharman on this one.

Stop OMGUSING
#126
Speedrace
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@ILikePie5
I'm a senior boi :D
#127
Speedrace
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I noticed some stuff but I'll analyze tomorrow because I'm sleepy so bye
#128
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@ILikePie5
You know I love tunneling ;). Last time I was being an idiot, this time Club is a moron. 
I think there are different ways to tunnel. A townie tunnels because they genuinely believe a player is scum. You tunneled despite admitting that you didn't care if Club was town or not.
#129
bsh1
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I want to repeat something I said earlier.

I am going to remove known townies and suspected townies from the count. I am including Club in the suspected townies group, because unless something really weird is going on balance/role-wise, I don't think he can be scum. I think Wylted not dying is evidence of a poison doctor. I also know that I am town. With that in mind, here is the revised list:

Mharman: 3/7 (Phione)
Disc: 4/7 (Mharman, Water)
Club: 2/7 (Pie)
I think that this is a better list of suspects to consider. If we buy the argument that scum would want to be mostly on the same page, in order to increase the likelihood that a lynch was secured, then Mhar and Water look the most suspicious. Then we have Phione and Pie, and, of them, I think Pie is the most suspicious.

It is also possible, of course, that Supa and Oro are scum. Neither of them voted, which would have handicapped mafia's ability to drive the lynch. I could see Supa or Oro in a team with Pie, because Pie was clearly trying to drive the lynch a specific way, but didn't have back up really from anyone else. It's possible that a large portion of the scum team was AWOL, inhibiting Pie's ability to direct the lynch to mafia's preferred target. I'd be interested in other people's thoughts.
Examine the bolded portions of the above analysis, and compare it to the quotes from Water below:

Did you VTL me? that's very very very suspicious gotta go with Mharman on this one.
mharman: Town helped town and has done nothign suspicious
I could see Water as noob scum with Mhar. Water's flagrant buddying seems the kind of thing he'd do as inexperienced scum.
#130
bsh1
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Unvote.

VTL Oro for a character claim and reads.
#131
bsh1
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@oromagi
See above.
#132
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@ILikePie5
We should make a lynch decision somewhere between there being 18 and 24 hours left in the DP, because we don't want a fragmented lynch effort like DP2 (which risks unwanted lynches) or a no lynch like DP1. That doesn't mean we necessarily need to secure the lynch at that time, but we should decide on a game plan around that timeframe. If you think about it, last DP it was hard to track which wagon town was pushing at any given moment--was it Club? Mhar? Disc?--and that allowed a lynch that I, for one, wasn't  on board with, and which hurt town. We cannot rush the DPs--we have to use all the time we can to probe and investigate--but we can't be disorganized either.

Right now, I am townreading Speed, Club, and Wylted. I would welcome their input on the lynch. I have the biggest doubts about Pie and Mhar. And then, of course, there are the less-than-actives like Phione, Oro, Water, and Supa. I think there are two potential options that we have as town: (1) lynch someone that is suspicious, or (2) lynch an inactive at random. I already stated the risks and benefits of the latter strategy, which will be important to weigh moving forward. I favor the former option atm.

All of this is, of course, preliminary. I still intend to pressure inactives for reads and character claims until the timeframe I identified arrives, and something might turn up as a result of the pressure. Also, Pie should claim, and I am willing to pressure him if he doesn't. I think we should also reflect on what has already been said this DP and see if we notice anything significant. Communication, as always, is key.

Anyway, I am definitely off for the night now. TTYL. I'll be back online tomorrow afternoon/evening.
#133
Mharman
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@bsh1

Okay. So warren actually did answer that question.

unvote
#134
Mharman
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@bsh1
@ILikePie5
@oromagi
@Speedrace
@WaterPhoenix
I have a massive bombshell. Look at my next post.
#135
Speedrace
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@bsh1
DUDE I JUST HAD A BREAKTHROUGH I THINK

What if Wylted is scum...and Club fake poisoned him to make it otherwise? Then they both look like town after Club claims poison doctor! Read Water's analysis, he asks if Wylted is ok, like he knows Wylted is doing something wrong

Also UNVOTE

#136
Mharman
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@Club
@Phione
When I got no message saying I had inherited Disc's role, I was confused. So I asked warren if I had inherited Disc role.

He told that I did not because I only inherit active roles.
 
This means that Disc's bulletproof is no longer active, which means he used it.

When?

NP1, the only night when there was no NK. Instead there was a poisoning.

This means that scum can use their NK and their poison at the same night.
#137
Mharman
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...continues from my last post

at the same time, warren confirmed we either have two poisoners, or a poisoner that can fake poison. I think it's the latter, because we've had the longstanding theory that poisoner was scum; if we had a town poisoner, he would've stepped forward and debunked that theory.

Which means we have a poisoner who could fake poisoning... and that would be Wylted.

VTL Wylted
#138
Speedrace
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@Mharman
I was thinking the exact same thing, but why would the poisoner be Wylted? I don’t think he can poison himself...

#139
Speedrace
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@bsh1
@Mharman
Just reposting for y'all to see:

What if Wylted is scum...and Club fake poisoned him to make it otherwise? Then they both look like town after Club claims poison doctor! Read Water's analysis, he asks if Wylted is ok, like he knows Wylted is doing something wrong

So Club, Wylted, and Water? I'm gonna analyze all of them in relation to each other


#140
Speedrace
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@Vader
Claim please

VTL Supadudz
#141
Speedrace
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VTL SupaDudz oops
#142
Speedrace
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@bsh1
@Mharman
Ok, so I asked Warren if, hypothetically, if he would feel the need to balance a fake poisoner with a poison doctor, or not to since the doctor wouldn't really do anything... he said, and I quote, "that's not an answer I'm willing to give." You can ask him yourself to confirm. Notice that he didn't even try to be vague, he straight up didn't answer. That's because saying he didn't feel the need to put the poison doctor would instantly out Club as Mafia! But saying he MIGHT feel the need wouldn't... so why didn't he say that? I think he feels it would put undue suspicion on Club, plus, if Club was fake poisoner, why would he risk claiming poison doctor if he didn't know whether there was actually a poison doctor in town to counter claim him?

BUT ALSO, Club said that he was a day poison bdoctor BEFORE Warren told bsh anything about day doctors, and that fact isn't exactly readily available to three public. So how would he know that a day poison doctor could even exist?

I think this confirms Club as town

#143
Mharman
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@Speedrace
I think it's more likely that Wylted knew the town poison doc would save him. I think Club is still town- fake claiming a poison doctor in this game would be way too risky for scum.
#144
Mharman
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@Speedrace
I think this confirms Club as town
Then let's lynch Wylted.
#145
Speedrace
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@Mharman
Wait, I have like 5 questions that I need warren to answer, I’ll get back to you

But, if wylted was the poisoner, why didn’t he poison anyone else last night? We already know that they can do both a kill and poison
#146
Mharman
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@Speedrace
Likely a 1x, since infinite-shot would be OP.
#147
bsh1
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@Mharman
He told that I did not because I only inherit active roles.
 
This means that Disc's bulletproof is no longer active, which means he used it. 
I don't think you understand what an active role is. An active role is like a vig, because they choose when and on whom to use their role. A bulletproof is NOT active, even when their shot is unused, because they do not choose when and on whom to use their role. Bulletproof is a great example of a passive role.

So, while it's possible that mafia attempted to NK Disc, there is no proof of that yet. Having played mafia for awhile, you should know the difference between active and passive roles and how those terms fit into common mafia parlance.

#148
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@Speedrace
What if Wylted is scum...and Club fake poisoned him to make it otherwise? Then they both look like town after Club claims poison doctor! Read Water's analysis, he asks if Wylted is ok, like he knows Wylted is doing something wrong
Explain how Water's analysis fits in here?
#149
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@Speedrace
I was thinking the exact same thing, but why would the poisoner be Wylted?
This. Behaviorally--and this feels odd to say given it's Wylted I am talking about--he hasn't appeared scummy to me. This is something I will want to cogitate on.
#150
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@warren42
Time check?