Pokemon Mafia DP 3

Author: warren42

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#31
Speedrace
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@bsh1
My other question would be why the Poisoner didn't poison one more person last night?

Also, the lack of killing Club makes me think that at least one inactive person is mafia, and the others are noobs

I don't see how Wylted could've survived without Club being poison doctor
#32
Speedrace
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@bsh1
Well, for one, we'd know if he is scum or not, obviously lol

But two, I think it sheds light on those tunneling him, if he's mafia then anyone tunneling him is likely not mafia, and three, it will help us determine if Club is mafia or not

And he's really the only lead we've got besides Pie
#33
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@bsh1
If not them, I'd suggest that we randomly choose an inactive and take them out and hope that they're mafia
#34
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@ILikePie5
So you think scum were on Disc’s wagon correct? 
Let's consider that question. Here's yesterday's vote count.

Mharman: 3/7 (Phione, Wylted, GP)
Disc: 4/7 (Club, Mharman, Water, Speed)
Club: 2/7 (Disc, Pie)
If we operate under the hypothesis that Disc's lynch was scum-led, then our scumpool would be narrowed to Club, Mhar, Water, and Speed. We know there is a three person scum team. But numerically, not everyone on Disc's lynchwagon can be scum.

I am going to remove known townies and suspected townies from the count. I am including Club in the suspected townies group, because unless something really weird is going on balance/role-wise, I don't think he can be scum. I think Wylted not dying is evidence of a poison doctor. I also know that I am town. With that in mind, here is the revised list:

Mharman: 3/7 (Phione)
Disc: 4/7 (Mharman, Water)
Club: 2/7 (Pie)
I think that this is a better list of suspects to consider. If we buy the argument that scum would want to be mostly on the same page, in order to increase the likelihood that a lynch was secured, then Mhar and Water look the most suspicious. Then we have Phione and Pie, and, of them, I think Pie is the most suspicious.

It is also possible, of course, that Supa and Oro are scum. Neither of them voted, which would have handicapped mafia's ability to drive the lynch. I could see Supa or Oro in a team with Pie, because Pie was clearly trying to drive the lynch a specific way, but didn't have back up really from anyone else. It's possible that a large portion of the scum team was AWOL, inhibiting Pie's ability to direct the lynch to mafia's preferred target. I'd be interested in other people's thoughts.
#35
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@Speedrace
My other question would be why the Poisoner didn't poison one more person last night?
That's on my mind, too.

But two, I think it sheds light on those tunneling him, if he's mafia then anyone tunneling him is likely not mafia, and three, it will help us determine if Club is mafia or not
Who is tunneling him, IYO?
#36
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@bsh1
I just looked and aha

It was Grey, Wylted, and Phione who voted for him, Disc was going to as well at the last minute to save himself

All people who have been confirmed town or are suspected of being town

So never mind, lynching him to discover he's mafia would just tell us something we already know :/     
#37
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@Speedrace
If not them, I'd suggest that we randomly choose an inactive and take them out and hope that they're mafia
We have to weigh the risks against the rewards if that's what we opt to do. If town mislynches twice--not even factoring in anything with regard to a poisoner--town loses. With 10 players and a 9-vs.-3 set up, this is what the sequence would look like in that scenario:

DP3: 7-3
DP4: 5-3
DP5: 3-3

Mafia would win by DP5. The pro's of such a strategy are that it would help with POE and give town an extra NP, assuming that there are investigative roles to help us out. The con's of such a strategy are that town would be at MYLO next DP and that we might be back to where we started: still searching among the inactives for scum, with no useful results. The risks mean that this strategy could only be a last resort move, IMHO.

#38
Speedrace
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@bsh1
What if the poisoner is oromagi? He was pretty active at first, but then he just randomly stopped...and it would explain why no one was poisoned last night
#39
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@bsh1
The risks mean that this strategy could only be a last resort move, IMHO.
I agree
#40
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@Speedrace
Yeah, that's why I asked you. I can't think of anyone who really tunneled Mhar who wasn't town. But that doesn't mean an Mhar lynch wouldn't help us with POE.

You said: "if he's mafia then anyone tunneling him is likely not mafia." So wouldn't it work in the converse: "if everyone tunneling him is not mafia, then he's likely mafia"? If anything, the fact that everyone tunneling him is dead is reason not to eliminate him from lynch consideration.
#41
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@Speedrace
What if the poisoner is oromagi? He was pretty active at first, but then he just randomly stopped...and it would explain why no one was poisoned last night
Do we know if he was on over the NP? 
#42
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@Vader
@WaterPhoenix
Activity prompt.
#43
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@oromagi
You too, please.
#44
Speedrace
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If anything, the fact that everyone tunneling him is dead is reason not to eliminate him from lynch consideration.
Yeah, ok

Do we know if he was on over the NP?
What time did the NP start? He did like 3 forum posts in that time, otherwise no, so maybe not...
#45
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@Speedrace
IDK when it started.

I'll be back online later tonight. 
#46
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@bsh1
See above, forgot to tag you
#47
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@bsh1
Ok, I'll continue my digging
#48
WaterPhoenix
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@bsh1
What, ya I'm active
#49
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@bsh1
@WaterPhoenix
@Water

Thoughts pls

@bsh

Scratch the inactivity idea, he was on all yesterday
#50
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@bsh1
Ultimately, then, I think the NK offers us two plausible narratives: noob scum or Mhar/Club scum. I think it is time to begin to pressure inactives for activity, and to continue to consider the possibility of an Mhar-Club team.

Amen
#51
ILikePie5
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@Speedrace
Mharman and Pie are the people for me this DP, I hate Pie's tunneling on Club, but a Mharman lynch would also give us a lot of information

Dude was anti town - something Disc agreed. And you ended up voting Disc. If anything I should be exonerated not be suspected. 

Either its a Club Mharman WIFOM or Scum has 3 noobs which I find unlikely.
#52
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@bsh1
Yeah, Pie is in my scumpile. It's not so much that he hammered, it's that he tunneled. He was overeager to secure the lynch of the likely (and then claimed) poison doctor, which does not strike me as pro-town at all.

Post 51
#53
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@bsh1
It is also possible, of course, that Supa and Oro are scum. Neither of them voted, which would have handicapped mafia's ability to drive the lynch. I could see Supa or Oro in a team with Pie, because Pie was clearly trying to drive the lynch a specific way, but didn't have back up really from anyone else. It's possible that a large portion of the scum team was AWOL, inhibiting Pie's ability to direct the lynch to mafia's preferred target. I'd be interested in other people's thoughts.

Post 51.
#54
Speedrace
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@bsh1
Everyone not on yesterday were Phione, Club, and Wylted, although he doesn't really count since he was banned, but it wouldn't matter anyway unless he poisoned himself lol

Pie was on yesterday, but very briefly

So fingers pointing at Phione now?

#55
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What was Pie's claim again?
#56
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VTL Pie
#57
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@ILikePie5
Amen
After reconsideration, I moved on from the Mhar/Club theory. It doesn't fit the facts. My latest thoughts are in post 34, 37, and 40.
#58
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@Club
You have to bold votes. Also, two questions:

What were your actions last night? What are you hoping to achieve with a vote on Pie at this stage in the DP?
#59
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@WaterPhoenix
Your thoughts on the DPs so far and reads, please.
#60
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@ILikePie5
Dude was anti town - something Disc agreed. And you ended up voting Disc. If anything I should be exonerated not be suspected. 
Yeah, I think we all agree that Club's play was/is anti-town. You're also pretty transparently trying to use Disc as a shield against scrutiny. Townies can get things wrong. The fact that Disc's vote was on Club in no way exonerate's you at all. The big difference between you and Disc was that Disc was trying to scumhunt, whereas you weren't trying to hunt for anything, you were just trying to secure a lynch. Do townies tunnel occasionally? Sure. But is your behavior suspect? Absolutely. You are in my scumpile until there is some very good reason that you shouldn't be.