Arthropoda Mafia DP2

Author: Mharman

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#1
Mharman
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LYNCHED LAST DP

WaterPhoenix - You are a centipede. You charge at your prey with ferocity. Thus, you are a Strongman. When carrying out the night kill, you will break through anything that would normally save the victim. You win with Mafia.

DIED IN THE NIGHT

Wylted - You are a Crab. When people think Arthropoda, they think bugs. Few people think of crustaceans. Thus, you are a vanilla. You win with Town.

  1. oromagi
  2. SupaDudz
  3. ILikePie5
  4. K_Michael
  5. Disciplus_Didicit 
  6. Greyparrot
  7. warren42
  8. Bsh1
With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch. The DP ends in 96 hours.

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#2
Mharman
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
@oromagi
@Discipulus_Didicit
@K_Michael
mafiuhhhhh tim
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#3
Mharman
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@Greyparrot
@bsh1
@warren42
mafiuhhhh
#4
oromagi
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@K_Michael
K_Mike is the only player who hasn't at least popped in.  Last online 18 hrs ago.  therefore

VTL K_Michael
#5
Discipulus_Didicit
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@oromagi
K_Mike is the only player who hasn't at least popped in.  Last online 18 hrs ago.  therefore

Do you not have any thoughts about last DP and who might be mafia based on what happened?
#6
Discipulus_Didicit
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I am still of the opinion that supa ought to be the next lynch like wylted I said before. On the other hand I did not read much of the game after WP confessed so maybe I missed something... I will go back and re-read but for now

VTL Supa
#7
Discipulus_Didicit
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like wylted I said before. 

Wylted and I*
#8
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@oromagi
Dont scum have to ba active to submit their NK?
#9
warren42
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Honestly thought Wylted had gone for the hard bus based solely on the first page and a half. Mafia clearly believed his day cop claim.
#10
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The existence of a strongman implies a doctor. I would urge whoever is the doctor not to claim.

The choice of NK was interesting. Mafia had to have inferred that a doctor was in this game. The choice to target Wylted in spite of the likelihood that a doctor existed was a curious calculation. To me, this suggests either some kind of WIFOM-esque logic, inexperience, or willingness to take risks. As things stand then, players who are inexperienced or who are known risk-takers should be examined more closely.
#11
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@warren42
You didn't post last DP, if I recall correctly. Reads and thoughts pls.
#12
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@ILikePie5
Dont scum have to ba active to submit their NK?
Yes. But only one team-member needs to be active. It's possible that 3 mafia began the game, and thus that only one was active to submit the NK. I haven't checked, but was any player not online for the whole NP?
#13
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Explain the Supa read.

#14
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@bsh1
Explain the Supa read.

Re-read supas posts in the first few pages of DP1 up to the part where WP resigned, keeping in mind two things:

  • WPs scum buddy knew WP was scum (obviously)
  • WP almost certainly had no communication with his scum buddy. (also incredibly obvious but if you really need it explained to you I can)

Supa is one of the first to post in the game but says little of consequence until Wylted begins his attack on WP. His initial reaction is an immediate counterattack on Wylted accusing him of being scum with no justification.

His comment about Wylted "just trying to get a noob player to confess" strikes me on several levels. Firstly I think Supa has been playing this game long enough to know that pressuring players during the DP is obviously a good thing for town. Why should he object to that? That is without even mentioning the fact that Wylted pointed out about the wording itself... How would Supa know that WP had something to confess to? This was before WP actually did confess.

After WP did confess Supa had nothing more to say but to change his vote to WP. The fact that he voted for a confessed mafioso is a null tell and really the fact that he stopped posting should also be considered a null tell but the rest of his actions last DP were suspicious for the reasons stated above.

To top it all there were (iirc) only two players last DP that said they wanted to lynch Supa today. Those players were Wyled and myself. Out of those two Wylted was very obviously baiting the NK. It was incredibly obvious that he was not actually a cop (as I pointed out several times last DP) so the only good reasons to kill Wylted would be for fear of what he might say/do or because he was widely town read.

There were several other players that were widely town read last DP so my gut tells me that the motivation for killing Wylted was fear of what he would do during DP 2, and I think Wylted made it pretty obvious who he was going to try to lynch during DP 2.

I don't see anyone else with as much reason to be lynched as supa right now.
#15
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@ILikePie5
VTL Oro for going after an inactive
#16
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@Discipulus_Didicit
After rereading DP1 and Wylted/DDs analysis on Supa, I agree...How tf did Supa know WP had something to confess. Only way for him to know is if he has inside knowledge making him scum. We should all have our votes on Supa cause he clearly knows something we don’t.

VTL Supa
#17
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@Greyparrot
boi vote for Supa, it’s obvious he’s scum
#18
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@bsh1
As a person who’s created a ton of games, are 3 mafia logical in a 10 player game given that one of the mafia is a strongarm?
#19
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@oromagi
boi vote Supa, it’s hella obvious that he’s scum
#20
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@ILikePie5
@Discipulus_Didicit
supa used the verb admit not confess which seems a little ess damning. However, I’m still amazed that Wylted’s random attack & WP’s instant confession now seem real enough, so right now Disc is looking like the expert to me. 

Im ok with lynching Sup....would he like to say anything in his defense ?
#21
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Also - this boi iz sleepytimes
#22
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Why does your post just scream scum to me?
#23
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@ILikePie5
I would not put 3 scum in a 10 player game. A good rule of thumb when balancing games is that, in a worst case scenario, town should get three mislynches before they lose. Imagine a worse case scenario for town with a 7-3 set-up:

DP1: 7-3
DP2: 5-3
DP3: 3-3

Town loses after just 2 mislynches. That's not a well-balanced set-up, because, ultimately, it denies town enough time to gather information to be genuinely competitive. I was taught that by both Khaos and FT, and, while this is a really rudimentary rule (and not a full consideration of what goes into balancing a game), it is an important rule.

But none of what I just said answers your question. You're asking about likelihood. I don't know much about Mhar's modding style, but as he seems to have less experience than say, Warren, I am not confident that there are not three mafia. I'd put the odds at 50-50 for the game having three scum.

#24
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@Discipulus_Didicit
It was incredibly obvious that he was not actually a cop

#25
Discipulus_Didicit
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@bsh1

Lmao a single post where I remark - with surprise - that Wylted may have been telling the truth? Let's give the audience some context so they can see why I seemed so surprised by that in the first place...




And of course the post I made just four minutes after the one you link...


That's cool though, why bother actually reading what happened when you can just tunnel vision on to some single zinger to 'prove' your preconceived notions? You should be a TV reporter.
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#26
Mharman
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VOTE COUNT
SupaDudz (2/5) - Disciplus_Didicit, ILikePie5
oromagi (1/5) - Greyparrot
K_Michael (1/5) - oromagi




#27
Discipulus_Didicit
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@oromagi
supa used the verb admit not confess which seems a little ess damning.

I admit/confess that I was technically a bit inaccurate in that regard.
#28
Discipulus_Didicit
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No guaranteed town or scum but I would list the probabilities like so:

(Most likely town)
oromagi
Bsh1
ILikePie5
Greyparrot
K_Michael
warren42
SupaDudz
(least likely town)
#29
Greyparrot
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@Discipulus_Didicit
k Michael wasn't online to do the night action....so hes probably town.
#30
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@Greyparrot
gp- I checked before vtl- K_michael was adding comments to debates during NP. About 12 hrs before DP2 started & he replied to a comment I made after the vtl so he’s around