Experiment

Author: keithprosser

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#1
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Suppose there are 600 people with fatal disease A.  You have to choose between
treatment 1 - 200 people will be saved
treatment 2 - there is a 1/3 chance everyone is saved, a 2/3 chance everyone dies



Now suppose there are 600 people with fatal disease B.  You have to choose between
treatment 3 - 400 people will certainly die
treatment 4 - there is a 1/3 chance everyone is saved, a 2/3 chance everyone dies.

What choices do you make?

#2
oromagi
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My tendencies fall certainly within the majority- T1 and T4.

#3
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@keithprosser
Question: Treatment 4 - what happens to the other 200 people.
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#4
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@Ramshutu
Question: Treatment 4 - what happens to the other 200 people.

1/3 of the time all 600 will survive, 2/3 of the time all 600 will die.  (Do nothing everyone dies)

#5
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@keithprosser
sorry, I meant treatment 3! Typo.
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#6
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@Ramshutu
They are cured.

#7
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I'd ask the patients what they wanted, and it'd be put up to a majority vote. If they went with the "only some people survive" route then they'd cast lots to figure out who those survivors would be. After that, I'd simply be the person administering the treatment so I'd go home at night with a clear conscience.
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#8
keithprosser
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@Swagnarok
Sorry - the rules of the game say you gotta make a choice for each disease!
Oromagi chose 1 and 4 - do you think he was right?
 

#9
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@keithprosser
The answer is 1 and 3.

Theoretically the numbers saved are the same in all examples over enough attempts, but a gauranteed outcome is always preferable.
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#10
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@Ramshutu
There isn't a right or wrong answer.   Cases A and B are actually identical, but the wording results in many people choosing 1 in case A and 4 in case B.   The link in post #2 goes into the detail.
#11
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@keithprosser
It doesn't seem like a real life scenario in which such choices would have to be made that risked the lives of so many.

My choice would be 1 and 3, notwithstanding.
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#12
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@Goldtop
It's not meant to be realistic - its about how the wording can effect the decision people make.


I wonder if a differently worded brexit referendum might have gone the other way!

#13
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I would choose 2 and 4 so to wash my hands of it (if there is such expression in English).
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#14
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@IlDiavolo
It's not meant to be realistic - its about how the wording can effect the decision people make.


10 days later

#15
Goldtop
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bump

8 days later

#16
Vader
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@keithprosser
Treatment 1- What happens to the 400 people not cured?

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#17
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@Vader
Treatment 1- What happens to the 400 people not cured?
From the OP:

"Suppose there are 600 people with fatal disease A."

So 'they die'.

#18
Vader
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1 and 3 are the same then, so I would go with 2 and 4
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#19
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@Vader
This pdf is about how the different wording can affect the choices people make.


#20
Deb-8-a-bull
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Tell all the people involved what the deal is  Keeping in mind it has to be treatment 1,2,3,4 ask them what they want then they will tell me and then I'll tell you what my decision is. 
I could make money from them in doing this, but to be put in a spot like this , its like going to be on the news and shlt so I'll do whatever they want. 
Because i soooooooooo love people. 
Then I could make much moneys from this alone. 
But i just ask them what they decide then I'll decide what they decide.
Thats in the rules of the game hey? 





#21
Deb-8-a-bull
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Treatment 1 and 3 can be sold. $$$$$$$$$$$. 
.
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#22
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@Vader
@Goldtop
@Deb-8-a-bull
@IlDiavolo
The actual set up was to ask two separate groups.

It turned out the group asked A overwhemingly chose 1, most of the group asked B chose 4.

#23
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@keithprosser
Suppose there are 600 people with fatal disease A.  You have to choose between
treatment 1 - 200 people will be saved - [there is a natural presumption that the other 400 may or may not live but at least have a fighting chance.]
treatment 2 - there is a 1/3 chance everyone is saved, a 2/3 chance everyone dies

Now suppose there are 600 people with fatal disease B.  You have to choose between
treatment 3 - 400 people will certainly die - [there is a natural presumption that the other 200 may or may not live but at least have a fighting chance.]
treatment 4 - there is a 1/3 chance everyone is saved, a 2/3 chance everyone dies.

What choices do you make?
Fixed.
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#24
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@3RU7AL
No worries!
#25
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@keithprosser
Your right there is no correct answer. On an individual level the chances of survival remain one third but in cases 1 and 3 there is a better chance of saving some. I believe Spock would therefore choose 1 and 3 concluding that it is logical to guarantee the survival of some. Of course that doesn't make it right.
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#26
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@secularmerlin
it's not about ethics this time!

The point is that the two scenarios A and B are identical but are worded differently.

It was found that if you ask a group of people question A then most choose 1 and if you ask a different group question B most choose 4.

It shows that the way options are presented affects what people are likely to choose. 




#27
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@keithprosser
However they are worded the scenarios are identical. 
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#28
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@secularmerlin
#26 The point is that the two scenarios A and B are identical but are worded differently.

#29
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@keithprosser
So it is an illustration of just how "free" our will is.

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#30
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@secularmerlin
Or 'unfree'!