The Russian Mafia DP2

Author: Casey_Risk

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@Mharman
Does anyone else have a reason to contest ADOL’s shield claim?
I don’t, but it’s worth nothing that his role has the power to confirm someone when there’s only one scum left. 
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@Mharman
There’s a chance That2 just stumbled into being right, but from her POV the plan makes no sense.
I think she’s grasping at straws. I need to go look at something again
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@Mharman
Even if we lynch Lunatic and confirm his results, we still don’t know who is scum.
We never know 100%, but it would increase the certainty more than lynching the list.

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@Cerulean
Ya, That2 claimed with very little pressure. Only one vote was on her at the time. Last game she asked to be at L-1 before full claiming. In Castlevania she just claimed and got immediately CCed. I think I’m fine with lynching That2. Luna couldn’t have known that no one visited him unless he’s the Gramps or something. Banana is just behaviorally town. ADOL is also town from behavior and role with no CC yet. Plus his role is very weak to begin with. I still would like Ceru’s thoughts before I vote though.
Mharman
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VTL Cerulean

at least say hi

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@Cerulean
tag ur it

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I am going to create a long winded response with Luna's point but I am inclined to believe he is town and I tend to question the process of That2 for lynching Luna. To be clear I get what they are saying but as scum the most optimal method is to suggest this because here's how it goes. It is either a 7v2 or a 6v3. If you force a mislynch on Luna and then have a NK it's either a 5v2 or 4v3. If it's a 5v2 Pie has already claimed the desire to be lynched before MYLO and we would have to lynch him at that time (unless he's some jester), and we are at 3v2 with realisitcally one true result. Then That2 can easily talk himself out of lynch to a certain extent or worst case, it's a 2v1 or 3v2. Huge scum advantage. I get the logic but it is honestly inherently scummy and i'd rather NOT waste a lynch on Luna this dayphase .
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@ILikePie5
Claiming a Beloved Princess isn't something that takes a lot of pressure with it's likelihood of being in a game tbh. 
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@ILikePie5
ADOL is probably town.

Anyway Whiteflames response to my original questioning about fruits should town lock me
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I am going to loss up my reads here...

Probably Town
Lunatic - I think Lunatic is probably town with his role. I think his transparency and his defense would probably make sense. I also think based on the roles and such and the powers of his roles being unlimited, it makes me feel like he's probably town. His interactions with other members and his overall behavior have been a pretty solid town lean in my opinion


Lean Town
ADOL - Yes even if with him being on the report. I think the Shield claim + his visit are pretty hard to justify as scum. I also think his theme analyzing and such aligns with his town behavior. I also just think his role not being traditional just goes with the flow of the game based on my role and I think he's probably town

Pie - I have a lean town on Pie because of what he is claiming and his behavior. Feel like he wouldn't want to push a lynch on himself unless it really had town utility and I think his behavior of pushing against sus claims seems kinda like Pie. He could be 3p jester but honestly I can't really see it

Slight Town
whiteflame - I think this could easily shift depending on the DP, but his behavior hasn't irked me as scum and his honest questioning to my responses make me put him in a slight town read. Scum have the only reason to lie so that's a plus but don't rule him out. He's also been pretty consistent with his reads, potentially a bit sus of Earth, but I feel like everyone is guilty of that though.

banana - I think the role is REALLY weird, but I honestly don't think banana draws that attention to themselves if they are scum. Their partner wouldn't have allowed them to say that as well in that scenario and the fact it was off the 2nd or 1st post makes it very believeable. And in there 4th game I really just don't think they have a big brain to fake that and draw town cred

FoS
Mharman - I feel like Mharman is kind of flying under the radar a bit and is in my FoS. It starts with Wylted play revealing Savant's character that gave mafia a chance. Don't know why he could've just been silent like his normal play. Even so Mharman has stated he's been caught up for a minute and has been actively posting but then when I said he hasn't been talking, his response is "you'll get info" even though he's been caught up. Don't like that at all

Slight Scum
That2 - I stated my reasons before so I feel like I don't need to replicate them but I think #1 there logic is coded in scummy intent for lynching Luna #2, the way they claimed and tried to be vague had no use and may me feel like they were hiding and #3 I think beloved princess claims are inherently scummy

Nul on rest
Casey_Risk
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Votes:

Lunatic (1/5): That2
That2 (1/5): ADOL
Cerulean (1/5): Mharman

Did you know? The period in Russian history between 1598 and 1613 is known as the Time of Troubles - during this span, Russia went through three tsars in five years, a famine, a Polish invasion, and a pretender to the throne named “False Dmitry.”
Cerulean
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Five notifications from this phase, fun.

Catching up now.
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I... really don't understand how Savant's role was supposed to bolster That2's?
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Heartbreaking: Phase in Mafia game I'm hosting gets hammered as I'm reading this one.

I'll skim and get some quick thoughts out, will try for more later tonight. Thank you Casey for 72 hour Day Phases.

Lunatic's role seems powerful, but with a lack of any other claimed investigatives (at least, as of Page 4) + no way of knowing that nobody visited him, it seems solid. Every Night is a lot, but now that it's outed he probably won't be allowed to get another shot off. Which means That2, Banana, ADOL, I'll hold onto that while I read.

Now that you mention it re-reading the bolded part makes me question if I could get two on the same result, something I did not specifically ask. I will ask now. I just assumed no. I've never had this role before. 
Although this seems extremely relevant and something you should have asked Casey immediately, but fine.

I'm not a huge fan of how metaphorical ADOL's claim is compared to both flips and other claims. The Princess is a princess. The person who brought people together is a Neighborizer. The person who was a diplomat is an Emissary. The person with big ideas is a Dreamer. But a concept that seems deceptive being a "shield" sounds a little tortured, in comparison.

Agreed, also I think if he was scum his partner would have just told him to claim bodyguard, which is essentially what he is.
Might depend on the partner. It's exactly identical to a Bodyguard, couldn't the renaming be intended to fit it closer to the character?
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@Cerulean
Although this seems extremely relevant and something you should have asked Casey immediately, but fine.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a dreamer work this way. The way I’ve always understood how it works is that it gives 1 scum and 2 town. I would have no reason to assume my role would function differently than the norm but it makes sense with it being every night so it’s not as OP.
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@Mharman
Does anyone else have a reason to contest ADOL’s shield claim?
If anything, I’d say the existence of my role supports it (at least better than Savant’s role supports That2’s claim), but that’s very minor.
ILikePie5
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@Cerulean
Might depend on the partner. It's exactly identical to a Bodyguard, couldn't the renaming be intended to fit it closer to the character?
It’s not identical to a bodyguard
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@ILikePie5
It’s not identical to a bodyguard
Figured that out when I continued reading, yes.
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Regarding the "We should lynch Lunatic" discourse, I thought he was a town lean even on Day 1, and it's not particularly convincing to me when the two people advocating it are people on the list.

I feel a little better about Pie than I did.

I do not feel better about WyIted/Mharman slot, nothing very inspiring there.

I would need to ruminate on it, but I'm not immediately opposed to voting anyone involved in the Dream. I suppose I should say that I am also a Protective role- so I'm not willing to clear ADOL on that front. I wouldn't call it exactly a counterclaim, but they're a bit similar. I can full claim if needed, though I would rather not, considering anti-claim exists.

I'll be back in a little while.
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@Cerulean
I would need to ruminate on it, but I'm not immediately opposed to voting anyone involved in the Dream. I suppose I should say that I am also a Protective role- so I'm not willing to clear ADOL on that front. I wouldn't call it exactly a counterclaim, but they're a bit similar. I can full claim if needed, though I would rather not, considering anti-claim exists.
That’s interesting. I would characterize ADOL’s role as a hybrid between an Investigative and Protective thought. I need to go back and read
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Vader, cause of the role split idea. Yes I know very thin reasoning.
Can you explain this a little further? 
whiteflame
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Seems like Mharman/WyIted is coming up in several peoples' reads as sus. I'm going to read back through some of Mharman's interactions this DP and see if I was too quick to townread WyIted over revealing Savant's character.
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I'll update my reads from whats been going on this day phase:

Vader- Town- role and behavior, he has felt genuine from the get go, I feel like he is genuinely a townie trying to solve the game, I don't feel like I am noticing any of his normal scum tells, and usually I feel like vader is kind of easy to read as scum. I am not seeing it this game. 

Pie- Town- I am still clearing pie based on his "need to get lynched before mylo" thing, I have a couple theories about what he means by that, all of them mean he isn't mafia. And honestly I just don't see what strategy is as scum. Also behaviorally he is town, he is clearing people off of behavior rather than role confirmation, which is generally a town tell. In his argument with ADOL, you can tell ADOL is going at it from a numbers POV where pie is clearing people based on behavior. I am not as convinced as him that banana is town behaviorally, she's generally been pretty inactive since she claimed, however I get the logic behind "Why would she do this as scum". 

Whiteflame- Town- I have him as town behaviorally, I don't see what his motivation for arguing for me against that2 would be if he was scum, if he was scum, I imagine he'd be happy with any mislynch, and this entire scenario would benefit him by just acting indifferent. That alongside my earlier  read still being consistent, he has shared a lot of similar thought processes with me about the game and it's players, so knowing I am town, I tend to town read him for that as well.

Mharman- Null - I don't really know where to put mharman. I feel like he is usually pretty easy to mark off as town, and he feels inherently different this game. I am not feeling the mharman that usually jumps in with great ituition and reads, who feels like he can solve the game single handedly that we usually get with town mharman. That and I find it wierd that he called the earth lynch retarded after agreeing that earth was probably scum at the end of dp1. Also to me that lynch just kind of felt obvious. 1. We were running out of time 2. We virtually had a CC with two characters claiming the be tsars 3. Both their character names were virtually identical 4. Earth in general was playing pretty badly, from lack of effort all the way to self voting. I just feel like it's kind of a weird shade to throw on people who were on that lynch, and makes me wonder if he was trying to paint people in a bad light so he could use it against them for potential mislynches, when ultimately the lynch wasn't even really that bad. I've seen much worse lynches than that get defended at least. 

Cerulean- Null- I don't like the inactivity, but I understand he is playing on multiple websites at the moment. The protective role soft claim gives him enough town cred for me that I won't put him in the scum pile for now, particularly because I don't know we can trust ADOL yet, and for all I know there is only one protective role. That said I need to see a considerable amount of effort come from this player slot before I feel comfortable passing them off as town. 

Banana- Slight Scum- I did town read her yesterday for her early claim of being a scum role, but her being in my results is naturally gonna make me question her. That and like I said, she's kind of dis-appeared after claiming when I outed my results. She hasn't really offered reads or anything helpful, and I don't think I feel comfortable giving her a pass for what could potentially have just been a ballsy move.

ADOL- Flip flopping- I am flip flopping because I can see his behavior being town and scum. If he is genuinely town, the fact that he is looking at this from an analytical standpoint is understandable, but I do largely feel like he is ignoring behavior in a lot of his reads. I do find it convenient he seems to be willing to lynch me over anyone else in the results as well, when even statistically speaking I feel like it's less likely that I could be scum here based on several factors I've pointed out with my claim and the huge amount of stupid risk involved in claiming the way I did. Under the presumption I am scum he has to jump through more hoops and climb more ladders to believe that than he does by simply accepting that my results are accurate and there is scum among the people in my results. I am flip flopping also because this is his second game. I generally view ADOL ass a pretty smart individual and can understand the logic behind his arguments, but mafia delves into more than just straight logic, it also bears into trying to find liars, dissecting the reasons behind them doing things, and trying to figure out and solve things on a behavioral level. I don't expect him to know how to do that after playing just one game previously, but without any sort of attempt at that, it kind of leaves me wondering if he is just scum and he is going for damage control.

That2User- Has been openly in my scum pile since dp1, even with me giving her the passes I have on her character and use of the word "Assassination" still, so much of they way she claimed and gave unnecessary information was a bit baffling. Having just hosted a game where she was scum, I noticed a lot of similarities in her playstyle, her lackadaisical approach, almost uncaring sounding when she was answering questions. She has turned up the passion a bit more this  day phase, but the dis-association initially felt just like her approach in Serial Killer Mafia. The next point is she never really outright defended herself or explained why she answered the way she did when she was initially claiming, though she did explain why she thought anastasia was assassinated, she only explained it after she had been asked why that was her first thought multiple times. The rest is still kind of a mystery. She sort of explains coming into the day phase that she felt pressured but she didn't come off that way, which is weird, she came off as cold and calculative in her responses initially, where as normally when town is being accused of something and they know they are innocent I would have expected her reaction to be a bit more blaring. It seems more like she is aware of that coming into this day phase when she is all of a sudden amping up her pressure on myself. Like I said, I get and understand wanting to confirm a dreamer, but it's also weird that she doesn't seem to even be considering the dream results could be accurate until proven. As mafia  this reaction makes more sense, as if you know you are on a lot of people's scum radar's, and are then further implicated by results, you want to prolong your life as long as possible to maximize night action utility, and take down as many as you can before you go. Again with us already being down a mislynch, there being a potential for 3 scum, and pie having to be lynched before mylo, chances are we could be in mylo after I get mischopped here. Than all she has to do at this point is say "Looks like lunas results are confirmed" and try to convince yall to vote bannana or ADOL for the win. As whiteflame and others have pointed out there is 0 behavior analysis to go along with her intention to lynch me, so I have no clue why if she was town she wouldn't be equally dubious of ADOL and Banana, instead hyper focusing on the hope that mafia faked dreamer, and pulled the craziest gambit in mafia history. Her motivations don't make sense as town here and thus she is my strongest scum read among the results. 


Mharman
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@Cerulean
Who did you protect last night?

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Sorry I was busy yesterday. Only real updated thoughts are that whiteflame seems to be buddying lunatic pretty hard, I don't know how to think about that. It seems like he is dismissing that2user and ADOL's logic completely out of hand or acting like lunatic lying is completely unplausible and anyone who suggests it is scummy. I don't personally think Lunatic is lying per say, but I can see the points they are making and don't think it's a forgone conclusion to want to test him to see if his results are accurate.

Outside of that ceruleans thoughts do not really feel original at all, he basically came in and parroted what the narrative has been more or less surrounding the entire day phase. I realize people probably don't want to lynch outside the dreamer or the dreamers results, but if we move past that at any point, I would probably want to focus more on Cerulean. Despite the large catch up posts, I don't think he is really trying that hard to solve anything, and he basically just used a lot of words to make it seem like he was making some sort of effort or contribution when it actually added up to more of the same. He's probably my number one suspicion at the moment.

But since we are focused on the dreamer results, and I know I am town, I know the other mafia has to be that2user or adol. adol seems townier to me overall, I can also see that2user being town, but out of the two of them, I'd have to pick that2user. If we are going to lynch here, I'd prefer it was her over me or ADOL based on her behavior over all.
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vtl that2user
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We should make sure that for whoever we decide to lynch today, Banana executes them. As heavily as I townread Banana, it would be prudent.
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Banana is low activity so we’d need to give her ample time to see the see the decision…. We’d have to decide on the lynch today.

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@Cerulean
Unvote since Cerulean showed up. Would love an answer to my question.
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Anyway, I’ll put up a full set of reads today.