Granted I think that since he is in that Dream that Luna had it should draw some suspicion but I feel like his claim is very believeable
The Russian Mafia DP2
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@Vader
Agreed, also I think if he was scum his partner would have just told him to claim bodyguard, which is essentially what he is. He's new and obviously doesn't know what a bodyguard is, so it kind of looks innocent that he claimed another role that does the same thing lol
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@Lunatic
Also you seemed to think earth was scum at the end of dp1 did you not?
I had read only the last 30 or so posts when I posted that. Was a lazy thought on my part too
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@Lunatic
Looked up Mendeleev. Claim is airtight.
I’ll buy Lunatic’s claim and results for now. Not as convinced ADOL is out of the picture just yet.
After I read DP1, I had decided I was gonna keep an eye on Lunatic, Whiteflame, Vader, and ADOL.That’s where I was at.
Oh and Cerulean too. I had town or null on everyone else. Almost scumread Pie again. Realized the trap I was getting into and figured out where I was wrong.
Ended up townreading him, That2 and Banana by the end of my read. Was null on Savant and someone else.
Oh nvm. No someone else lol. I can’t count. Just Savant.
That’s all for now.
Question: If you were scum, who would you have killed last night?
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@Mharman
That2user seemed obvious to me based on her claim
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@Mharman
That2user seemed obvious to me based on her claim
Oh and for clarification all those unexplained reads I gave were ones I had during the night phase. Recent events have changed things
Gn
Votes:
Whiteflame (1/5): That2
Did you know? The Russian word 'mir' (мир) can mean both 'peace' and 'world'. The Soviet Union's space station was named 'Mir' as a play on both meanings.
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Forgot to ask. Who did you protect np1 and why?
I'm shorter on time today than normal since my coworker is out and I'm handling things alone in the lab. I'm catching up on the DP before I get caught up too much.
I buy Banana's claim. Yes, a town Executioner sounds very strange, but it's also the kind of thing I would expect for Ivan the Terrible whether the character is town or scum. Banana also did say that they could end the DP at any time last DP, so that tracks. I don't think it's likely that she would CC Earth on the whole "first tsar" thing even if that was present in her PM if she was scum. We would also have to believe that she just straight up claimed her scum role, which doesn't make sense to me. Executioner is a huge boon for scum since town is not told who delivered the execution. Why would she choose to give up that advantage?
I also buy ADOL's claim, mainly because it's not a straight up BG. One of these days we might get burned by this mentality, but I just don't buy that scum came up with this variation on the BG claim, and the lack of another protective role so far suggests it's real. Still, I would also like to know how/if he chose to use it during the first NP.
As for Luna's Dreamer claim, I'm good with buying it and his results for now. I agree with ADOL here, I don't think there's any value in protecting Luna since it functionally just turns him Vanilla in the hopes that we can shift the NK onto ADOL. I'd rather give scum the choice: waste a non-killing role on him to stop him from using his role, or kill him and reveal his dream to be accurate. Besides, I think we'd have better luck with ADOL's role if he doesn't say who he's targeting.
Finally, I don't get why Savant kept saying this his role suggested the existence of That2's in game. As far as I can tell, the Emissary has no connection whatsoever to the Beloved Princess. I'm guessing what he was getting at was that he didn't want DP2 to be skipped, since that could have meant losing out on his information, but I don't think his receiving information in DP2 suggested there was a mechanic that could skip a DP. That2 is my pick for the scummiest of these 3.
As I've said before, I'm fine with divulging my role if enough people want to know. I understand that the attention is on That2, Banana and ADOL based on Luna's result, but I'm not going to blend in with the crowd to dodge claiming.
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@Lunatic
Vader, cause of the role split idea. Yes I know very thin reasoning.
Now that the possibility of unintended consequences for even protection abilities has been brought to my attention I probably should have refrained.
Not sure why asking that helps, nobody can confirm its true or false. If I had protected savant I would be dead and not him. Earth was already dead. So unless people are informed that they were protected (and the role doesn't say they are), no corroboration.
mafia is never killing luna, luna is never dreaming again, we need to kill luna to see if mafia is in me/adol/banana.
vtl luna
casey was the dreamer in the sopranos mafia so i see luna fakeclaiming it/casey using it as a real role
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@That2User
mafia is never killing luna, luna is never dreaming again, we need to kill luna to see if mafia is in me/adol/banana.vtl luna
So… explain this to me. Why do you think it’s better to eliminate Luna ourselves rather than forcing scum to address him? I get that this will give us information regardless, but if he’s town, this is a gift to scum who no longer have to target him during the NP to stop his role.
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@whiteflame
So… explain this to me. Why do you think it’s better to eliminate Luna ourselves rather than forcing scum to address him? I get that this will give us information regardless, but if he’s town, this is a gift to scum who no longer have to target him during the NP to stop his role.
Luna's flip always gives us mafia, the info is greater in value than drawing a kill/rb.
if luna is mafia, we kill scum
if luna is town, we know scum
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@That2User
Do you have any reason to doubt Lunatic’s authenticity here? I’m all ears. Until I get a good reason though, I’m not down to pull the trigger on the MU strat
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@That2User
Luna's flip always gives us mafia, the info is greater in value than drawing a kill/rb.
…except if he draws the kill, we get the same info without the cost of a mislynch. If he draws the RB (assuming there even is one), that frees up another night action. And, perhaps most importantly, if we lynch him and he flips town, we have a second mislynch in a row with the only resulting info being that one of 3 remaining people are scum with, at best, a 5-2 split between scum and town going into DP3.
Thinking about it more, lawyer makes little sense for ADOL because cop makes little sense for this game.
As for Lunatic, to me it looks like emissary/dreamer might be designed to work with each other. Or at least have a chance at it. Not really thinking that’s a cc atm.
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@whiteflame
…except if he draws the kill, we get the same info without the cost of a mislynch. If he draws the RB (assuming there even is one), that frees up another night action. And, perhaps most importantly, if we lynch him and he flips town, we have a second mislynch in a row with the only resulting info being that one of 3 remaining people are scum with, at best, a 5-2 split between scum and town going into DP3.
mafia only kills luna if they do not have have an rb, (it is safe to assume they do), materially nothing changes if we mislim outside of luna + mafia kills luna
the only way to be 100% certain in luna being the dreamer is by flipping him, if luna is mafia then he can perpetually claim he is roleblocked and we will never know unless we flip scum within me/liberty/banana (it's possible as scum luna throws in his partner to make his dreamer claim look real to win in elo.) eliminating luna is the optimal play.
going into elo without knowing if luna's dreamer claim is real is not a place i want to be in
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@Mharman
Do you have any reason to doubt Lunatic’s authenticity here? I’m all ears. Until I get a good reason though, I’m not down to pull the trigger on the MU strat
Dreamer is the perfect scum fakeclaim, mafia is incentized to never kill them, Luna can say he did not dream so he was roleblocked, mafia only needs to choose 3 names. Casey was the dreamer in the last game, making it even more likely dreamer is a potential fakeclaim. Independent of Luna's dream Liberty's + Banana's claims look pretty believable, I know I am town.
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@That2User
I want to understand your thinking on how we use this information. We lynch him. He flips town. We know that one of the three of you (ADOL, Banana and you) are scum. We’re at at least 5-2. So now we know there is one scum among three players, and another scum among 4 players.
Explain to me how that meaningfully helps with PoE. It seems like you’re banking on him being scum because that’s the only outcome I can see that would provide any actionable benefit to town.
Ok so let's try to game out the most likely scenarios:
1.) Lunatic is mafia, there are no scum in his list, he doesn't care that he'll be found out to be scum after all three are killed because after three days of miss-lynching and night kills mafia will have won.
2.) Lunatic is mafia, his teammate is in the list, risking the teammate is a risk they're willing to take because then everyone will believe lunatic is very townie and when he happens to produce another list that will win scum the game for the same reasons as (1)
3.) Lunatic is town, 1-2 scum are in the list, every time town lynches someone on the list the chance of the next lynch being scum go higher. In this case what would scum who are on the list want to do? The last thing they would want to do is have town immediately commence to lynching the list. There wouldn't be many ways to delay that but trying to miss-lynch lunatic is one of them.
However in this scenario it would be a bad strategy if both scum are in the list. After Lunatic is confirmed town that whole list is going to be lynched if its the last thing town does, especially if a scum is found.
So we have 9 living players and 2 are scum, so 7 living town.
D2: lynch lunatic, -1 town
N2: rando town dies, -1 town
D3: 5 town, 2 scum: town starts lynching the now confirmed list. If both scum are on the list it's a 66% chance of hitting scum. If only one, then 33% chance. For the sake of the "mafia hope" scenario lets say another townie is miss-lynched (from the list), - 1 town
N3: rando town (not on list) dies, -1 town
D4: 3 town, 2 scum: Town still outnumber scum (i.e. the game isn't over), and now there is a confirmed list of suspects with a townie out of contention. i.e. the list at this point is either (T, S) or (S, S).
In the case of (T, S), scum still has a decent chance. They just need to convince one of the two townies outside of the list to lynch the townie and they win.
However if the list is (S, S), then town can't miss. That would leave it as 3 town, 1 scum. One night kill later 2 town 1 scum, a scum who was on the list. It would be pretty difficult to convince one of the remaining townies to suspect each other more than the list-inhabitant at that point.
Not to mention that 66% chance is a bad one.
So to summarize all that, That2User going directly after lunatic is non-scummy to me, or at least there seems to be a lower likelihood that the team is banana/user. However it could also be a bluff to move suspicion to the other people in the list.
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From my perspective the list is only two long. Only two people need to be lynched to either win or validate Lunatic's story.
However at no point of killing the people on the list is scenario (1) disproved. So the question is, if Lunatic lives, how many people on this list will town miss-lynch before turning on Lunatic, and if turning on Lunatic is something that needs to happen after the first miss-lynch then perhaps it does make sense to do it now and bring about the odds in (3) which are not at all bad for town.
The problem is that we don't know what scum powers they have. Scum lunatic could survive the whole game and just claim that every round he was visited to explain the failure to produce another list.
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@whiteflame
in what world does 100% knowing 1 player is wolf does not help town? the alternative is having faith in luna is the dreamer, hoping we're lucky in the 3 names.
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@Mharman
Why do you ask?
You tell me