I'm afraid we're entering onto stagflation, with no way out

US imports are like 10% of economy. So yes, 10% of products will be slightly more expensive, and due to counter tariffs, US buisnesses might sell more locally, so dont expect any too big change in prices. There will only be more space for US buisnesses to compete in USA.

As of my last knowledge update in October 2023, imports accounted for about 15% to 20% of the U.S. GDP. This percentage can fluctuate based on various factors, including trade policies, global economic conditions, and changes in consumer demand.

For the most accurate and current statistics, I recommend checking sources like the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) or the U.S. Census Bureau, which provide up-to-date trade data.

It's not just a direct effect on our economy. Even shaking consumer and business confidence can cause these things. Plus our export market will be out of whack. Trade wars r a double edge sword

As of my last knowledge update in October 2023, imports accounted for about 15% to 20% of the U.S. GDP

Looks like you have your libertarian blinders on

It's called logic and evidence actually.

What is the evidence of the meaning of a word? A dictionary.

I don't know a single economist who would say tariffs don't cause inflation

Can you find a single credible source that backs up your claim?

As of my last knowledge update in October 2023, imports accounted for about 15% to 20% of the U.S. GDP

Really?

3 trillion import, 30 trillion GDP = 10% of GDP is import.

Even if you pushed it to 15% somehow, it wouldnt amount to much.

It looks like you just don't want to call prices going up as inflation?

What you call it is irrelevant

Tariffs cause prices to go up

As a libertarian yourself, you should be supporting my defense of the free market

tariffs arent going to cause any great rise in prices.

The large majority of imported items (and there are many) no longer have local competition

Thats not really true. Many products are in competition with not just products of same type, but with different products which serve similar purpose.

I'll give you an example. Miniature skid steers.

USA made: $80,000 no bells and whistles

China made: $12,000 base, $15,000 all bells and whistles, $25k after import

Tariffs do not cause inflation.

No, but it will push the chinese import out of range

Tariffs do not cause inflation.

If you define inflation as an increase in prices, tariffs can cause inflation.

No, but it will push the chinese import out of range

It wont. The Chinese will just sell at higher price in USA until some competitor appears to replace them.

They can't because there would be no buyers.

That's the problem.

If American companies could afford to buy American and simply choose not to for profit motive, then tariffs could alter behavior.

However if they are on a business model that cannot drastically increase prices and they cannot afford American made, then they don't buy Chinese or American, they go out of business.

This is also the fallacy of the minimum wage increases, the assumption that there is a large profit margin that the government can redirect in its infinite wisdom to the politicians constituents. i.e. you increase minimum wage and nobody gets fired. That is an incredibly baseless assumption.


It's a big economy, you'll find specific examples of everything, but in general the companies that we need the most have thin margins. You increase minimum wage and they will fire or go out of business. You take away the cheap east Asian imports and their business model no longer works at all.

lithium-ion batteries

That is not nothing, and it is the perfect example to further make my point.

US government decides carbon dioxide is going to make the ocean boil, introduces all sorts of taxes and regulations making it ever more impossible to use combustion (especially diesel), while making it advantegous to use an EV.

All in the context of not mining our own lithium but getting it from China.

Now EVs work, bad reasons aside.

ICEs work.

However if you cut off the battery imports, and you don't remove the shit you did to ruin ICE appeal and production; then you don't have any vehicles and you are very screwed.

That is a highly representative example of the whole situation.

We can survive, but not without an explosive restoration of economic liberty. One that will be politically very difficult to deliver. One I am not confident Trump is even aware is necessary.

I fear he thinks he's just done the hard part, and if that is the case; we are going to go into a chaotic depression and not recover. This will be used as proof Trump and "capitalism" (economic liberty) were wrong. "late stage capitalism", the USA will fully embrace socialism, and then it will end up like all the other American nations that have tried socialism (poor as fuck, possibly hyper inflated, dominated by a black market run by organized crime)

They can't because there would be no buyers

We can survive, but not without an explosive restoration of economic liberty