The Sopranos Mafia DP1

Author: Vader

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 Vote Count

[1/5] Earth- (Pie)
[1/5] Casey - (Bullish)
[2/5] Moozer (WyIted, Luna)


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@Bullish
we were pressuring that2 and you shut that down cause you thought it was "lame meta". Now I wanna pressure you, cause it's not lame meta.
It is a bad meta, and let me explain why. Any time you pressure someone for a claim, you're taking the risk that the potential benefit outweighs the potential harm. Knowing who people are helps the mafia out a lot, especially if someone claims their role in addition to their character, and at the start of every game, every single player has the same chance of being mafia, so if you immediately single out a single player for being bad at fakeclaiming before you've even had a chance to get an actual read on them, you're trying to get a claim out of someone who is most likely town, just based on statistics. You're not doing risk/benefit analysis there, you're just taking a blind risk and hoping it pays off. You might get lucky one game, but on average, that strategy is always going to help the mafia more than the town. It's like a casino game -- the players can win, and sometimes they can even win big, but the house will always win in the long term. The best bet is to just not play at all.

Now, obviously once you've actually seen someone's behavior, that changes things, but you have to get actual reads before trying to push someone for a claim. Not following this rule is just reckless imo.
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I will say that I find it interesting that Wylted is fine with pressuring That2 for being bad at fakeclaiming when he said this about the same thing happening to him in Shocking TV Moments DP1:

I am going to push back against this or it is just going to continue every game. It's not happening.
Granted, the fact that it was happening to him personally might have made him more willing to push back, and we did just see the mafia self-destruct in a way that Wylted himself hadn't recently done at the time of that DP. Still, it's hard for me not to see this as Wylted being inconsistent about his feelings on this sort of meta.
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@Lunatic
Moozer- Null slight scum?- I don't really give moozer the noob pass anymore so I kind of find  some of his takes weird, and ultimately don't understand what his town goals and motivations are. He seems to be okay with town offering information, but when we specify any sort of target for a claim, he gets defensive for that person. First it was that2user, now its casey. He wants information, but doesn't want town to pursue it? I don't understand what his actual goal here is, and I feel like he may be scum using inside information of known town players to get defensive over these players, in the off chance one is lynched he can say "I told you so" because I literally see no other reason he is randomly defending people in dp1 like this.
I don't view things that way at all tbh. Moozer is generally pretty straightforward and easy to read imo. The push on That2 really would have seemed random to someone like him who wasn't in the last game and also hasn't played at all in a while. I don't read Moozer as defending That2, just being a bit confused as to why multiple players were voting for her, which is a pretty normal reaction. I'd say Moozer is a slight townlean rn personally.
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@Lunatic
She softed a mainish character 
I asked Moozer
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@Casey_Risk
I don't view things that way at all tbh. Moozer is generally pretty straightforward and easy to read imo. The push on That2 really would have seemed random to someone like him who wasn't in the last game and also hasn't played at all in a while. I don't read Moozer as defending That2, just being a bit confused as to why multiple players were voting for her, which is a pretty normal reaction. I'd say Moozer is a slight townlean rn personally.
I just don't understand his motive in getting information and moving the game forward when he also has a problem with literally applying pressure on anyone to get that information. 
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@Bullish
I wanna lynch between casey and pie, for voting me last game and preventing a flawless town victory. 
I only voted you because of Casey and Wylted. They were “convinced” you were scum and that your plan didn’t matter.

VTL Casey

Describe your character without claiming.

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@ILikePie5
I asked Moozer
Good for you. I don't care. 
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@Bullish
Let's lynch casey. Last game it was down to you, me, vader, casey, and wylted. 

Wylted obviously wasn't voting himself. You wanted to vote wylted but didn't have enough votes. Vader made the wrong choice but he's the mod. That leaves casey to be the weak link when it comes to lynching scum. Let's lynch them now.
If Casey is town, Casey is definitely not the weakest link. A town Earth, Moozer, or That2 would be far weaker
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Anyway, I get the feeling that the town is going to be all over me if I don't at least soft my character now even though there is literally no behavior-based reason to be pushing me, so I'll just say that my character knows Tony Soprano on quite a personal level. (This'll probably make more sense in retrospect.)
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@Lunatic
iLikePie5- Null very slight scum?- Not basing this off of much but the fact that he still seems to be eager to pursue that2user, which I initially hopped on that wagon as well but backed off when she made a pretty prominent soft claim. It's been pointed out to pie that she has but he still hasn't really backed off of it. I get that may be partially related to him not knowing the theme (I could be wrong on my assumption as well), but his attachment here seems oddly aggressive, and I do think that2 is putting a bit more effort in than the last game, so the established reason for pressing her seems to be less impactful here. I expect a bit more activity from pie as the day phase progresses. 
She still hasn’t answered my question of why she’s rewatching the show with her ex. That type of behavior is scummy af
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@Lunatic
I just don't understand his motive in getting information and moving the game forward when he also has a problem with literally applying pressure on anyone to get that information. 
He was confused by the pushes on me and That2 because they seemed random and not driven by behavioral reads, which they pretty much were.
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@Lunatic
Moozer- Null slight scum?- I don't really give moozer the noob pass anymore so I kind of find  some of his takes weird, and ultimately don't understand what his town goals and motivations are. He seems to be okay with town offering information, but when we specify any sort of target for a claim, he gets defensive for that person. First it was that2user, now it’s casey. He wants information, but doesn't want town to pursue it? I don't understand what his actual goal here is, and I feel like he may be scum using inside information of known town players to get defensive over these players, in the off chance one is lynched he can say "I told you so" because I literally see no other reason he is randomly defending people in dp1 like this.
I was actually going to point this out. He wants information, but isn’t volunteering to offer it up first himself. Why?
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1. whiteflame - male
2. iLikePie5 - male
3. That2 - female (close to Tony)
4. WyIted - male (Wop)
5. Casey - male (knows Tony on personal level)
6. Earth - female
7. Moozer - male
8. Lunatic - male
9. Bullish - male

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@whiteflame
I like Earth’s response, Luna feels fine as well, as well as Wylted. That2 I’ll leave alone until if and when she messes up her claim. Moozer, Bullish, and WF is who I dislike right now. I think everyone has done something besides WF to move the game forward. I also can never read him, so I’m fine pursuing this.

Unvote

VTL WF

What are your reads and why
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@Casey_Risk
I'll just say that my character knows Tony Soprano on quite a personal leve
This applies to literally half the cast but okay lol
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@Lunatic
This applies to literally half the cast but okay lol
Like I said, I've never seen the show before and I also haven't really done any research yet. Might not have been the best softclaim tbh, but I said what I said for a particular reason.
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@Moozer325
You say that every single DP1, how many times are you actually right?
I don't, but when I do about 80% of the time.
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@Lunatic
I agree 100% with your Moozer read but didn't want to state it because I wanted to see if he would continue that behavior.
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@WyIted
I agree 100% with your Moozer read but didn't want to state it because I wanted to see if he would continue that behavior.
He's played enough games I think he should know that you have to apply pressure in order to get things moving, so I don't give him the noob excuse anymore. 
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@Casey_Risk
Granted, the fact that it was happening to him personally might have made him more willing to push back, and we did just see the mafia self-destruct in a way that Wylted himself hadn't recently done at the time of that DP. Still, it's hard for me not to see this as Wylted being inconsistent about his feelings on this sort of meta.
This is simple. If that2 is susceptible to getting bullied for an easy read than it is good for my game, but if I am bullied into being highly susceptible to tells than it's bad for my game. She is welcome to also take defensive measures to protect her long term strategic interests in the game. I wouldn't blame her but if she has a weakness I don't see an issue with me exploiting it. It is up to her to erase or defend her weaknesses just as it is up to me to defend mine.
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@ILikePie5
She still hasn’t answered my question of why she’s rewatching the show with her ex. That type of behavior is scummy af
I mean maybe it's been a while and she needs some pipe. I ain't judging.
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I agree also with pie about whiteflame and I am not sure if he has given any soft claims yet . I can't read the guy. I have to get him by POE. 

However I think Moozer has legitimately shown scummy behavior and if we lynch him here it will most likely catch scum.
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@That2User
Is there any female characters where we could easily guess the role of they were claimed?

I am not asking about your character but any female character, I am asking because earth asked for the characters genders in what seems like a very male dominated show so I am trying to figure out if there is potential for her to uncover a specific role given scum were told about or hinted about one role that would exist
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@ILikePie5
It looks like pie tied himself to a very small sunset of characters here 

https://www.debateart.com/forum/topics/12538-the-sopranos-mafia-dp1?page=2&post_number=54
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I meant whiteflame not pie
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@That2User
Okay I know who you are then lmfao
Can you explain this response to whiteflame,
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I found this post by Moozer.


This post he folds under a very slight bit of aggression. Like he's very uncomfortable with attention on him and he is criticizing any attempt to gain information as lunatic is pointing out. Almost feels like a way of preparing to say "I told you not to go that direction"

If we lynch Moozer and he flips scum than we can likely clear anyone he defended prior to me posting this and giving him a chance to correct. So he defended that2 and Casey I believe. If Moozer is scum that would most likely put them firmly in the town category and give a very narrow POE
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@ILikePie5
I think everyone has done something besides WF to move the game forward. I also can never read him, so I’m fine pursuing this.
Fair enough. TBH, haven't been all that engaged this game as of yet. I'm not going to give the usual excuse of DP1 being what it is, but usually I focus on theme at this stage and I know next to nothing about this theme, so I've been a bit apathetic.

What are your reads and why
I'll work on it.

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@Moozer325
Busier morning than usual so I only had limited time to do this, but here are my reads:

Luna - Very slight townread. He gave me a set of reads so I'm mainly evaluating Luna based on those. There are perhaps a few too many null reads in here, but I can at least see where he's coming from on each of them. At the very least, I think he's honestly evaluating the game as it stands, and I get pushing back on Bullish's early tactics and then pushing Moozer based on those reads.

Pie - Null. Mainly been calling out activity a lot of this game, which I can't read either way even though it's valid. I agree with his basic reads since Moozer and Bullish are both in my PoE as well, but I'm going to need more detailed thoughts before I can come to any conclusions with him.

That2 - Strongest townread. The back-and-forth over That2's claim came off as authentic and the probing especially came off as legitimate theme analysis. That2 has also been pretty forthcoming and suggestive of their claim in a way no one else has so far, not to mention the response to being pressured was very distinct from their last game where they were scum.

Wylted - Very slight townread. Never feel like I'm terribly clear on WyIted, especially when he seems to be developing his thoughts from post to post and reading back through the DP. I understand his logic this game for the most part, and his pressure on Moozer (like that from a couple of others in this game) feels genuine, so I'm siding with the slight townread over the basic null.

Casey - Slight townread. This is more behavioral as I think Casey's response to Bullish's reasons for pressuring That2 and in general his meta seemed authentic and more thoughtful for a defense of someone I'm already townreading than I'd expect from scum, particularly this early. 

Earth - Slight townread. This is almost entirely on the back of that female softclaim. Scum were given some indication of what not to claim, but this is a situation where I'd expect scum to try to hide in the crowd and not pick the outlying sex with fewer characters. The other much smaller ping is that statement about the lack of a good vs. evil theme split in prior games. I don't think scum would be trying to reduce the number of theme split options this early.

Moozer - Null. As many of you have suggested already, Moozer has enough experience in this game that he shouldn't be surprised when attention is drawn to certain players based on weak or even entirely external reasoning. That being said, this is his first time back in a hot minute and I find it a little unlikely that, as scum, he's defending multiple players. I can see the basis for scumreading him and he's still in my PoE, but he remains uncertain to me.

Bullish - Slight scumread. He argued early that there's really "no analysis necessary here" based on a faulty view that this game would necessarily be a simple split of good vs. bad characters, which came off as a little dismissive of the theme. At the same time, he also argued that we should get a round of softclaims based on each characters relationship with Tony, which wasn't initially his suggestion and seemed a bit like piggy-backing on That2. Both are weak reasons to read him, but they rubbed me the wrong way.

So right now, I'm good with info from Moozer or Bullish. We already have 3 votes on Moozer and I'd like to see how he responds to that before layering on any more pressure. It says he was on about 9 hours ago, so he could have seen the vote totals at that time, but it's hard to be sure.