Paper Mario Mafia Chapter 1 (DP1)

Author: Earth

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ILikePie5
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@Casey_Risk
I agree that calling you out for inactivity when you hadn't said anything yet is a little bit weird, but he didn't say "Mharman is less active than I suspect." It's weird that you put that in quotes when he didn't say that. What he actually said was, "For someone who was being a little pushy about getting people to join, you sure haven't bothered to show up yet. By all means, come join the thread." Personally, I read his vote as being an activity vote first and foremost. What makes you so sure it was a reaction test?
People can be town and have things going on (like me). But the meta Mharman here is the same as last game.

There’s also a difference between wanting activity and distinguishing it from last game. One is genuinely wanting activity. Other is wanting to set up something imo
ILikePie5
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@Mharman
On Skipper and Cerulean?

Well, what I said. Your thoughts on him have some merits, and I really do not like Cerulean's behavior.

So, noticing how he's accusing me (in the same post you called out) and how Cerulean seemed to be doing a similar subtle accusation in his reply to me earlier, I established a link in their behavior, meaning potential collusion.  The logic pipeline is essentially Cerulean -> Skipper for me.

I did however, make note of the fact that Skipper could be town conditioned to overread into me as Cerulean wants, or he could be a teammate sent by Cerulean if he saw no townie was gonna do it. At the time I believed the latter.  

As for now? His recent response to you about he understands your points is kinda pointing me in the direction of the former now; nonetheless I will acknowledge that your original case on him does have some points. I guess I'll say he's up in the air for me after that.

One thing: Sometimes I like to think about possible scum team theories and how they fit into what I'm observing. It helps me figure things out, and it's how I got pointed in Whiteflame's direction last game.
This is something I’ll disagree with. I think Skipper is very noob town. Cerulean can do what he did regardless of Skipper’s affiliation.
ILikePie5
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@Cerulean
Oho, an actual push on me. Let's see what you've got, Mhar. Reading through it now.
Don’t like this reaction
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I am fine adding pressure but think that is 3 votes. So I will chill with the actual vote for now
Lunatic
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@Casey_Risk
I didn't know what SOP meant in my first game, either. Heck, even in the last game, I had to explain the term to Mharman. You saw that, right? 

The one thing I can agree with you on is Skipper mentioning PMs. I feel like it should be pretty common sense that you can't just PM other players, and that does make me want to suspect Skipper. Behaviorally, I've gone back and forth on him, but right now I'm back to a town read. 

Are you american? I just feel like SOP is a very common one for americans, or at least I have seen that term used in almost every job I have ever worked, so for me that one seems a bit obvious. If people are saying they aren't familiar with it, I can't really argue that, just that it seems weird to me that it's one people aren't used to is all. 
Lunatic
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@Mharman
Of course, I interpreted that as part of his plan, when it really doesn’t have to be that complicated. So I took his whole plan as I saw it as some sort of challenge, and got ready and hyped for the Rust 1v1. I did this with Austin a few games ago, if you remember.

That fact that you thought he had a plan from a simple activity garnering vote is what is interesting. But anyways, im not voting you or anything, just found the reaction a bit overt. I am not sure if this is in character for you, I don't think ive actually played with you in a while despite hosting games with you in them, and they are spaced out enough where I tend to forget some of your playstyle and tendencies. 
Mharman
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@Lunatic
Yeah I’ve not been playing super consistently in my 8 years in this community… I will admit I’ve made plenty of changes to how I play this game, and still do.
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@Lunatic
Pretty sure he is not American but there is a generational divide as well. When I was a kid you couldn't watch a cop movie without hearing SOP 100 times but now it is barely mentioned
Barney
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@Skipper_Sr
Quick reminder... Some noob mistakes can get you automatically mod killed.

Do not PM other players about the game outside of the game
Do not copy/paste anything from PMs (you may paraphrase, but it has to be your own words!)

...

Besides that, try to remember that this is just a game, so have fun.
Lunatic
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@Mharman
This is a ridiculous point tho. If I’m overconfident because of a good town game, it would lead me to be overconfident in bad reads as town too. You seem to think my read on Cerulean is so bad, so why is this not a point in your head?

I am just trying to draw an explanation for why you would resort to making such a large "OMGUS" post while addressing its omgus and your being baited, to still allow yourself to be baited in hopes of it not looking like omgus... Only other thing I can think of is that your pulling an intimidation tactic, some chest beating and hoping you can get away with the behavior that is normally looked as at scummy by calling it out in advance, and hoping to ride of the victory of your last game to somehow earn you some town cred. 



whiteflame
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Alright, some reads. Some of these might not include more recent posts, as I've slowly been writing them over the course of the day, but here's where I'm at.

Barney - Playing pretty coy so far with the Sonic the Hedgehog claim, but that's not unusual for him. So far, he just seems to be having fun and organizing the claims. Can't read any of that as affiliation indicative, so null for me.

Pie - Limited participation so far. He placed Casey in his townblock early for the Hated claim. He also noted the existence of a fake claim (as spelled out in the OP) early and asked a question of Earth about what the extent of said claim would be, but I don't see a response (didn't expect one, either). His participation has largely petered out after page 1, so like Barney, there's not enough to read into yet to do anything but give him a null read.

Casey - I townread them early given the Hated claim, and I still hold to that, even though the existence of a fake claim at least offers an opportunity to get towncred through an early claim like this. It's more Casey's behavior that is leading me to put them in town. The responses I've seen to Mharman's line of thinking, to Skipper and to Cerulean just come off as pretty natural so far. Casey's reads also make sense enough that I'm giving them a town lean.

Luna - Not a huge amount of participation so far, but what I've seen puts him in slight town for me. I largely agree with the way he's responded to Mharman's push and I think his insights have been good so far. Maybe that's just because I'm similarly a little sus about just how hard Mharman believes Cerulean is working to subtly manipulate town over the course of two posts. Right now, that's enough for me.

WyIted - I always have a hard time reading WyIted. His solid townread of Skipper hasn't really wavered that I've seen, even while others have questioned it. Calling out Casey for not noticing flawed logic when he was going back-and-forth with Mharman comes off as a little strange, but WyIted often picks up on and runs with small "tells" he sees in peoples' posts. Maybe there's something there, but for now he's null for me.

Cerulean - Frankly, I'm not fond of the basis for this push on Cerulean, though I don't have any solid scumreads to begin with and he's just null for me. The fact that his vote persisted after Mharman started being active just doesn't come off as trying to make a play for a mislynch. The comparison to Banana from last game doesn't quite work for me, either. I feel like Cerulean's done a significantly better job explaining where he was coming from since being pressed, even if that explanation came later in the DP. I do think we still need a claim or two at this point, so I'm not opposed to getting one from Cerulean regardless, I just don't like the logic that's going into it.

I'm still null on Mharman and have a slight town lean on Skipper. I can see Mharman doing everything I've seen this DP as town or scum, including the OMGUS, and Skipper is more of a gut check based on how I read his early posts. They might be staged and I'm not writing him off yet, but I read them as genuine.
Earth
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VOTE COUNT

Wylted (1/5) - Cerulean
Cerulean (1/5) - Pie




Mharman
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My townread are gonna be Pie and Casey. My townread on Pie is still early-ish, but I’ve gotten more confident in my townread of Casey.
WyIted
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VTL cerulean 
Cerulean
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@whiteflame
Who's the scummiest person/bottom 2 to you right now, WF? You seem to have everyone as null or a town lean. I know you say you don't have any solid scumreads- but there must be someone at the bottom of your hierarchy of reads.



VTL Cerulean for full claim
Both my character and my role give scum a lot of information if I claim, I think, so I'd rather avoid doing that today. If a majority want it, though, I'll at least claim my character.
whiteflame
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@Cerulean
If I had to pick, the two at the bottom right now are Mharman and WyIted. Each of them have a little something that is setting me on edge.

As for your claiming, that’s not up to me at this point. You’ve got a handful of people to convince to avoid that. If it’s confirmable in some way, that might help.
Lunatic
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@ILikePie5
Oho, an actual push on me. Let's see what you've got, Mhar. Reading through it now.
Don’t like this reaction

Conspiracy theory time: do you read this interaction between them as a potential bus or are you really sold on mharmans case
Casey_Risk
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@Mharman
I'm at work right now so I can't say too much, but I will say that I feel pretty satisfied with Cerulean's response for now. As for Mharman, I feel like he's more likely paranoid town than scum. There's just one thing that gives me pause, and that's the one quote I pointed out earlier where it felt like he was trying to hard buddy me. I still don't really like it that much, despite his explanation. To be honest, I'd rather get Mharman's claim than Cerulean's at this point. 

VTL Mharman 
Cerulean
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Conspiracy theory time: do you read this interaction between them as a potential bus or are you really sold on mharmans case
If you really need to know, I reacted like that because it's the first time any of you have bothered with trying to push me on Day 1.
Mharman
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@Lunatic
I am just trying to draw an explanation for why you would resort to making such a large "OMGUS" post while addressing its omgus and your being baited, to still allow yourself to be baited in hopes of it not looking like omgus... 
The simpler explanation is that I really believed what I was saying at the time… lemme ask: Can you picture yourself, Wylted, or Pie doing what I’m doing as scum?
Barney
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No updates unless I've missed something.

Dashboard
Player              Role               Character
Mhar                                      "A boss"
Lunatic 
Pie
Casey     Hated Townie   Tubba Blubba
Wylted                                   General Guy
WF
Barney       Bullshitter    "Sonic"
Skipper                                "A boss"
Cerulean 

...

Other people, please copy/paste and update as information comes out.

whiteflame
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@Barney
I'll add to it:

Dashboard
Player              Role               Character
Mhar                                      "A boss"
Lunatic                                 
Pie
Casey     Hated Townie   Tubba Blubba
Wylted                                   General Guy
WF                                         "A boss"
Barney       Bullshitter    "Sonic"
Skipper                                "A boss"
Cerulean 
Earth
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VOTE COUNT

Wylted (1/5) - Cerulean
Cerulean (2/5) - Pie, Wylted
Mharman (1/5) - Casey
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@Lunatic
I didn't know what SOP meant in my first game, either. Heck, even in the last game, I had to explain the term to Mharman. You saw that, right? 

The one thing I can agree with you on is Skipper mentioning PMs. I feel like it should be pretty common sense that you can't just PM other players, and that does make me want to suspect Skipper. Behaviorally, I've gone back and forth on him, but right now I'm back to a town read. 

Are you american? I just feel like SOP is a very common one for americans, or at least I have seen that term used in almost every job I have ever worked, so for me that one seems a bit obvious. If people are saying they aren't familiar with it, I can't really argue that, just that it seems weird to me that it's one people aren't used to is all. 
I have also heard SOP used as "Statement of Purpose" which means the Mission Statement. I didn't think that's what it meant for this game, so I wanted to make sure
ILikePie5
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@Cerulean
Both my character and my role give scum a lot of information if I claim, I think, so I'd rather avoid doing that today. If a majority want it, though, I'll at least claim my character.
You should claim. 
ILikePie5
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@Lunatic
Conspiracy theory time: do you read this interaction between them as a potential bus or are you really sold on mharmans case
It’s possible. It would explain why he has a Skipper/Cerulean team. The connection between the two makes absolutely zero sense to me. The reasoning is baffling and not something I would expect from him. The way Cerulean “activity prompted” Mharman was odd, and I agree with him there. From a bussing standpoint though, it’s a chicken vs egg situation I think
ILikePie5
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I want to get Barney’s claim next. He’s been skating along too much
Mharman
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@ILikePie5
I have no teams I'm gonna theorize right now. I don't really know who to scumread.

My case on Cerulean was dogshit. There are small things about his behavior that bother me, but each and every one of them has a townie explanation. There's also one thing he did that's nagging on me that says he's town.

I'm gonna read into him and Wylted. I thought he had a good point on Wylted, but then came Wylted's rebuttal, which is a bit better of a point imo.

If I find his push on Wylted is reasonable, I'm going to join.

If his push on Wylted is stupid, it nullifies that one townie point, and I'm back on him.

I'll let you know when I'm done reading and thinking.

As for bus theory, lol. I'm not gonna do that super risky shit as scum. Especially not DP1. This is kinda the same point I made to Lunatic: I don't care what you think of my play this game, or my play last game, or how it all might affect me. I'm not taking all the risks I'm taking right now if I am scum.

Mharman
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@WyIted
@Cerulean
It would be helpful if you two told us all more about your thoughts on each other.
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@Mharman
There are some red flags for me . I may have dismissed what you was saying too easily earlier. My criticisms of your logic are valid, but it also may be that you were pucking up on something you had difficulty expressing. 

I think you mentioned the insincerity behind your push. Where you responded and his vote remained. At first I thought, maybe you he just forgot to remove his vote or didn't care. So maybe it didn't indicate insincerity, but his interactions with me seem insincere. 

I'd definitely like to move past him with some sort of claim. It's possible he is insincere but an alternative theory is that he is trying really hard to scum hunt and when you are being high effort it can come across as insincere. So right now and I have not reread any part of the DP, but I am looking for signs that he is either high effort or signs that he really is insincere and it is not a misperception on my part.