The United States federal government should forgive all student loan debt.

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I negate the resolution.

Recently, student debt has ballooned, “increase[ing]...66% over the past decade” according to Safier 23.

Unfortunately, Smith 22 finds, “student loan cancellation isn’t a magic wand that makes those loans disappear—they’ll have to be paid for somehow. The question is: By whom?”

George 22 explains: “Cancellation would not erase the amount of student debt owed, but would rather shift the liability from an individual's balance sheet … (taxpayers') balance sheets.”

Konish 22 corroborates that Biden’s partial debt cancellation “could result in an average burden of $2,500 per taxpayer.”

This is because Yanellis 22 adds, “the government will need to either raise taxes by an equivalent amount or cut funding from other important government programs that many poor families rely on.”

TPC 20 finds “High marginal tax rates can discourage work, saving, investment, and innovation.”

This leads to a loss in economic growth, harming a critical poverty solution. Adams 03 states,  “a 10% increase in economic growth…will produce a 25.9% decrease in the proportion of people living in poverty”

George 22 states, “Debt forgiveness is …likely to be inflationary.”

“If people have less student loan debt to pay off, that frees up a portion of their budgets that they would otherwise spend on their loans …[making] people more likely to purchase things [which] tends to drive prices up.” Ngo 22 explains.

CRFB 22 corroborates, “Given the current state of the economy…canceling all …student debt would increase the inflation rate by …0.5%”

For comparison, during the Pandemic, the inflation rate went from 2.2% in 2019 to 2.8% in 2022. A 0.6% increase, reports Leigh 22. If the pandemic’s soaring prices were any indication, we cannot let this happen again.

Unfortunately, Konish 22 finds: “Canceling student debt will boost near-term inflation more than the Inflation Reduction Act that was recently enacted would reduce it”. 

Detrimentally, Powell 20 adds: “A 1% increase in inflation is associated with an increase of almost 7% in the fraction of low-income households.”

Bradford 13 furthers “as many as 900 million people could fall back into poverty in the event of an economic shock [like rising inflation]”

In the status quo De Vice 23: “The published sticker price of college is declining, after adjusting for inflation.” From $57,000 in 2021 to $53,000 in 2023”

Affirming harms this downward streak. Robinson 17 explains in a collective study: “Private colleges…adjust their prices according to…the market … if an institution’s typical student has $1,000 to spend on education, the school will charge tuition of $1,000. If students gain access to another $1,000 for education…the school will raise tuition to $2,000.”

This is bad for future generations. Lobosco 22 finds: “If prospective students have reason to believe that a future president may cancel their debt… colleges…may decide to charge more for tuition and fees… [because this] sets up an expectation that debt may be forgiven in the future.”

 McCluskey 22 writes “the Federal Reserve Bank of New York… found that for every dollar increase in “subsidized” student loans colleges raised their prices 60 cents”

Disadvantaged communities are especially affected. Marcus 14 states: “Lower-income students have been particularly vulnerable to tuition increases.”

With higher education costs, students will have to turn to even higher student debts or drop out.

This means less access to advanced degrees. Odumosu 23 furthers: “20% of graduates with more than $20,000 in student loans report that their debt discouraged them from pursuing an advanced degree.”

NCES 23 writes: “the median earnings of those [with a degree is] 55% higher than the earnings of those [only] who completed high school.” 

Critically, Connell 22 explains the poverty rate is 13.2% without a college degree, [dropping] substantially to 4% with one.

We cannot exacerbate poverty. Mueller 23 finds: “poverty is associated with 42% excess risk for death” while “Cumulative poverty (i.e., 10 continuous years of poverty) is associated with 71% excess risk for death.”

Thus, I am proud to negate.

To start off, a concession. They tell you themselves that taxes will increase. This means that even if you buy nothing else, taxes will lead to poverty and worsen the economic situation as Murray 23 finds: “that Americans will be required to pay tax on any forgiven debt over $600… because most canceled debt is taxable.”

Then, on deterrence from college, realize that the AFF world is so much worse. In an AFF world, tuition skyrockets. Since this is only a one time thing it won't help either. CRFB 23 found that "student debt would return to its current level in five years." Cancellation is not the solution. While it might have a marginal impact the harms are to great to justify anything. If your friend is deterred with levels in the status quo, wait until tuition rises and they cannot pay for college again. The momentary relief is not enough, as it will only make the problem worse in the long run. We outweigh on timeframe, because in 5 years or less the levels of student debt will return to the level now if not higher, to the detriment of us all. Secondly, realize that the loan relief is only for people with loans right now. If your friend was deterred from college debts before, that won't change once loans are relieved because it's only a one time forgiveness. This means they will still be deterred in your world and still have debt.

Next on economic shift. The idea that the economy will just rise again is misleading. Let's look to what we know. During Covid the inflationary rate was unreal. I mean it cost $6 for a gallon of gas.The only thing that brought it down was Biden's bill. Realize we cannot do this again. As stated in our case, the Inflation Reduction Act wouldn't work and even if it had a marginal impact, it would harm us in the long run. PRMA 23 found that inflation reduction bills are actually bad for the economy and slow it down in the long run.

Next on increased student achievement. Realize that student cannot achieve if college prices rise even more. Right now they are on a downwards trend Palmer 23 finds “After adjusting for inflation, the average net tuition and fees for …in-state students enrolled at public [colleges]…declined [as well as the tuition] in private, nonprofit…[colleges].”(as stated in case De Vice 23) we cannot risk harming this, reversing it, and making them skyrocket even more. More student achievement comes with an education which is only provided in the AFF world.

Next on poverty. The problem with their response is that my opponent misses the tuition consequences. In the long run people will not be able to pay for college, leading to an increase in poverty, not the decrease they want. Remember all the student debt will also return in the next 5 years so any hope they have of long term change is completely eradicated in the AFF world.

On poverty specifically right now. Realize a full relief isn't the solution. Looney 22 finds “Widespread debt forgiveness isn’t equitable because student debt is mostly owed by higher-income, better-educated borrowers, from affluent... backgrounds” Indeed, Baum 20 corroborates “The highest-income 40% of households …owe almost 60% of the outstanding education debt and make almost ¾ of the payments.” Additionally, HCWM 22 “a report from the University of Chicago showed that the top 10 percent of earners receive more from cancellation than the entire bottom 30 percent of earners.” 

The problem in all of these scenarios is that there is no targeted relief. Prefer the NEG world where we have specific TARGETED relief like the SAVE plan recently enacted to help SPECIFICALLY low-income and struggling families. FSA 23 finds “The Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) Plan is the newest income-driven repayment plan calculates your monthly payment amount based on your income and family size.

Finally on inflation probability. Let's look to what we know. We know that president Biden has put a cap on the debt ceiling. We also know that there is money that is being taken out of the economy and then never repaid. Put those two together and you've got the government short on money and needing to do something to get it. This means they will raise taxes AND prices of goods to compensate. Look to COVID era. When the government needed money and companies subsequently had a lot of pay off, inflation skyrocketed. The predicted inflation in this case is only 0.1% difference. There WILL be inflation and it WILL be detrimental.

Now, let's weigh the worlds. At the end of the day there are two ways this goes. We leave the economy where it is right now. With taxes and inflation low, poverty lessening, and college tuition decreasing, or we relieve, and possible help a few more people want to go to college. First let's look to the long term. In a NEG world to economy and world continue to thrive. The PRO conveniently forgets that after 5 years, the student loans will be exactly where they are right now. The only difference will be that unlike now, with a thriving economy, to help the people in poverty, we will have also triggered a chain effect, meaning while students debts are at the same level, we will not have the means to help the people in poverty like we do right now. The way to truly get someone out of poverty is to get them a good HIGH education, something only seen in the NEG world with TARGETED relief like the SAVE plan and others like it. Blanket relief strategies do not work. We also outweigh on severity. Whereas the only solvency the PRO gives is that a handful of people MIGHT be able to get a better education, we know the opposite is true. And, thus, as the economy worsens and the people suffer, it will not matter that one or two people might be able to go, they will still have loans to pay off. If nothing else, vote on the concession. The taxes are going to rise, and the people are going to suffer.