Instigator / Pro

Kouen

1500

rating

debates

60.0%

won

Topic

#4986

USA is unable to invade China

Status

Finished

The debate is finished. The distribution of the voting points and the winner are presented below.

Winner & statistics

Better arguments

Better sources

Better legibility

Better conduct

After 1 vote and with 4 points ahead, the winner is...

Kouen

Tags

China

War

USA

Parameters

Publication date: 10.08.2023 11:09PM
Last updated date: 10.20.2023 03:08AM
Type: Standard
Number of rounds: 3
Time for argument: One day
Max argument characters: 10,000
Voting period: One week
Point system: Multiple criterions
Voting system: Open

Contender / Con

Atoktheadvocate

1492

rating

debates

50.0%

won

Description

I (kouen) will argue that the USA can't try to invade China and succeed(less than 50% chance) while the opponent will argue that if the USA tries to invade China, USA is likely(higher than 50% chance) to succeed.

"Succeed" being : USA captures Beijing/Peking (the capital)

Round 1

Kouen

10.09.2023 02:23AM

Pro

1) Size

The army size is definitely a factor to take into consideration since China's army is twice as big as USA's. https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/military-size-by-country. Also, since China has four times the population of the USA, it's simply four times more people to work in things such as military equipment, ammunition that will help China. While it doesn't prove 100% that China can whistand, it's one of the reasons it's definitely more likely than not that they survive, they have more personel.

2) Geography

China's geography also makes it hard to invade. Russia and North Korea has no reason to let the US army go through their territories and get past them. To the west there are the himalayas, the highest mountain range, etc. basically it's covered on so many sides that ground and naval attacks would become easily predictable and impossible to perform in a scale that could threaten make Beijing fall.

By the way take a look at China's missiles reach. Even approaching China would be a challenge. https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/china/. That only leaves two options, one being an air invasion, and the other being treated in point 5. As stated earlier, due to sheer numbers, USA cannot currently invade Beijing in an aerial war.

3) Dependant

As soon as the US would launch an attack, China would cut trades and exportations. China is USA's largest trading partner and it would cost the US hundreds of billions up to trillions of dollars yearly and companies would go broke. USA would have to backtrack from attempting to invade China because of the heavy costs on its economy, especially if the war dragged for years. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/us-china-decoupling-would-cost-america-hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars.html

4) International Support / Allies

USA would lose international support from a lot of their allies by trying to invade a country (especially one with as much influence as china), further making it harder to gather the ressources to defeat Beijing. Also let's not forget that China is at the moment getting more and more allies that could supply them with resources or directly send troops (Russia/Africa/North Korea,etc.)

5) Nuclear Weapons

USA simply wouldn't use nuclear weapons since they'd be in a mutually assured destruction scenario. If USA sent weapons to destroy China, China would detect it and send their own weapons to destroy usa. So USA has no reason to attempt that. North Korea would be affected too by nuclear weapons sent to Beijing, so they'd also attack the US (yes their missiles can reach the usa https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-missile-tests-military-capabilities)

Basically, USA has no options here, as they'd 1-either lose, 2-be forced into a stalemate, or 3-cause their own destruction while destroying china(which they would most likely not do).

Atoktheadvocate

10.10.2023 12:46AM

Con

Thank you for having me here, Kouen.

There is only one possible option I see for USA successfully invading China. It involves espionage, deceit, and overthrowing the politico from the inside.

The process of defeating China in an invasion would take approximately 30 years, indoctrination, and bribes. First, American operatives migrate to China by legal means, and set up normal lives supporting minor government entities. They begin to create a web of connections that allow them to determine who are Nationalists and who will be susceptible to bribes. All bribes and buy offs will be done in a way that gives the US government total deniability.

By creating our own population within China, buying off as many families as possible, and having US Nationalists procreate with Chinese, we will slowly begin to elevate our position within the political and military spheres of China. By the end of 30 years, we will have leaders in both the military and political offices that are loyal to the cause of defeating China. The children borne of American/Chinese pairings will become indoctrinated to bring the downfall of their country.

With enough time, people, and money, from within, China will be overtaken.

Step 1 of the "Invasion": immigrate and become trusted
Step 2: procreate and bribe
Step 3: offspring indoctrination and spread of dissenting opinions
Step 4: cause trouble within the country, demolishment of infrastructure, destruction of systems of monitoring for invasion, flood the market with faulty product, flood the economy with false currency, theft and destruction of government property, spread of propaganda against the current regime
Step 5: China is in Civil War, trying to stop the fighting within its borders
Step 6: have our operatives (bought, bred, and immigrated) act in such a manner that convinces the UN, EU, NATO, and other world organizations that China will soon become a threat to those outside of its borders
Step 7: excommunicate China from global agencies and the US convinces others within the agencies that action is necessary (whilst making no allusion to their part in the chaos)
Step 8: full on invasion by land, air, and sea. The little resources left for defense will be quickly overrun.

Round 2

Kouen

10.10.2023 02:06AM

Pro

Thank you for the debate Atoktheadvocate.

Before starting, I’d like to point out that China is on its guard as tension has risen between the two countries.

Your plan wouldn’t work, as the hate towards America is growing in China by the day. Kids are literally taught to hate Americans 😂. Also, people wouldn’t take the risk of getting caught because China is developing a social credit system “so that businesses, individuals and government institutions can be tracked and evaluated for trustworthiness”. If a CCP member or rich businessman were to take bribes from Americans, they’d get quickly caught and taken care of.

Xi Jinping has so much power that he kicked out Hu Jintao of a CCP meeting, for no reason, just to prove that he can. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kan6ydVJ3vY. For the context, Hu Jintao is his direct predecessor, the former president. Xi has proven that he can basically do what he wants. He won’t let an influential Chinese person directly help the US to organize a rebellion or to spread pro-americans message.

Also, your plan about making half-American half-Chinese children would fall since Americans would have to either:

1- Create schools to indoctrinate them within China. Of course the government wouldn’t tolerate this/let these buildings be constructed.

2- Send their kids to regular Chinese schools. But they indoctrinate kids to hate Americans so it doesn’t work.

3- Bring them to America. To work this would be too long-term and drag over decades and decades. The CCP would within a few months have plenty of time to regulate emigration laws.

* Step 1 of the "Invasion": immigrate and become trusted

A mass immigration to China by Americans would so suspicious they’d immediately notice and take actions. They'd see no good reason for millions of americans to move there, especially when taking into consideration the quality of life.

* Step 2: procreate and bribe

I stated above in the current message that the resentment of Americans by Chinese people is growing by the day.

* Step 3: offspring indoctrination and spread of dissenting opinions

I stated right above the Step 1 how this plan would nearly certainly fail.

* Step 4: cause trouble within the country, demolishment of infrastructure, destruction of systems of monitoring for invasion, flood the market with faulty product, flood the economy with false currency, theft and destruction of government property, spread of propaganda against the current regime

Troublemakers are dealt with in China. It’s not like America.

* Step 6: have our operatives (bought, bred, and immigrated) act in such a manner that convinces the UN, EU, NATO, and other world organizations that China will soon become a threat to those outside of its borders

China, US, France, UK, Russia have what we call ‘veto’ in the UN. Basically, if one of these five countries rejects a decision in the UN, the decision will not be made. This veto has no limitations, China can literally force the UN into not intervening. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/un-security-council#:~:text=The%20Security%20Council%20has%20five,are%20not%20afforded%20veto%20power.

Europe is too dependent on China to turn on them. https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/89448. USA is on their own and has no chance to win this scenario alone.

* Step 7: excommunicate China from global agencies and the US convinces others within the agencies that action is necessary (whilst making no allusion to their part in the chaos)

Countries are too dependent on China to just kick them out.

* Step 8: full on invasion by land, air, and sea. The little resources left for defense will be quickly overrun.

Impossible as the previous steps would easily be prevented by China or outright impossible to pull off. Xi Jinping is not trying to shift the balance of the world for no reason.

So it’s most likely that despite a lot of time, people, and money, from within, from outside, from the air, laid, sea, space, underground, China will not be overtaken.

Atoktheadvocate

10.11.2023 12:18AM

Con

Other than my previous method, it is possible to convince other Asian countries to help with invasion. Many Asian countries have a negative view of the Chinese empire, and many Chinese people themselves resent the government. It would not be hard to slowly take over the borders with help from surrounding Asian countries.

Russia would help if they were promised a significant amount of land from the deal. Many other Asian countries would be happy to expand their borders.

The only two ways to overtake China are with help from surrounding countries or through lengthy espionage and sabotage.

Round 3

Kouen

10.11.2023 02:25AM

Pro

While many other Asian countries resent China, they are all too dependent on China to legit try to invade it and take it down. South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Russia, Indonesia, India, North Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines are all big trade partners of China. The costs to their economy would simply be too heavy for them to engage in a full-scale invasion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China . As I said, the USA would be on its own in this scenario because no country is risking it all.

“Russia would help if they were promised a significant amount of land from the deal.” Putin is way smarter than people think (though his decision to invade Ukraine was stupid.). He’s not going to throw away one of his only remaining allies, and his biggest one, China. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/13208#articles-sub-title-5:~:text=year%20civil%20war.-,China,-The%20closest%20thing

“Many other Asian countries would be happy to expand their borders.” Not at the cost of their economy, human losses, bad international reputation, etc.

So it’s most likely that despite a lot of time, people, money, sabotage, espionage, efforts, blood, sweat, and tears, from within, from outside, from the air, land, sea, space, underground, China will not be overtaken.

Au revoir !

Atoktheadvocate

10.12.2023 02:25AM

Con

Forfeited

M.H.S

10.20.2023 03:08AM

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@Intelligence_06

China has the capability to do the same. Also, destroying the capital doesn't do much. Not all of China's powerful politicians live in Beijing. China would still have its entire military as there are no bases in Beijing. The American helicopters would be easily destroyed, and China would nuke every major American city; USA would nuke every major Chinese city; Everyone loses the war.

Public-Choice

10.13.2023 02:18AM

-->

@Intelligence_06

This assumes Russia and North Korea would not want to get involved.

Additionally, China has nukes, too.

However, I don't live in China so I have no idea how military capable the CCP truly is.

Atoktheadvocate

10.12.2023 12:42PM

Apologies for forfeiture, ran out of time due to my schedule. Interesting topic, and I believe a better argument could be made on my part if I had more time to research the topic. Good debate.

Sum1hugme

10.11.2023 11:02AM

This is a debate I would be interested in

Intelligence_06

10.08.2023 11:56PM

Throwing three large nukes at where Beijing approximately is is enough for the US to just fly helicopters here and claim it.

They wouldn't want to do that, but if they do want so, they have an almost 100% success rate doing so.

Trent0405

10.12.2023 03:05AM

Criterion

Pro

Tie

Con

Points

Better arguments

3 point(s)

Better sources

2 point(s)

Better legibility

1 point(s)

Better conduct

1 point(s)

Reason:

Both sides put up an interesting case, and each had their own challenges, but as I see it, Pro edged this one out.

Pro starts off, as one would expect, listing all of the economic, political, and military resources China has at its disposal. To counter this, Con outlines an 8-step plan to infiltrate China with Americans, causing internal strife which can be exploited by the United States to destabilize the country. In response, Pro takes down every point Con offers relatively well. Most importantly, he questions how practical it would be to promote mass immigration into China without sparking suspicion, and that the Chinese (taught to hate the Americans) would naturally be weary of any and all American activity in the country.

The main problem Con had, more so than anything Pro said, was that he never really explained how the U.S. could reasonably achieve any of the steps he listed. This leaves his case feeling rather hollow, and given that he dropped Pro's refutations, I cannot say Con's plan satisfied his BoP. It is easy to say: "Do A, B, C, and D and China will fall," but it is significantly harder to elaborate upon the mechanics of A, B, C, and D. This issue followed Con throughout the debate.

Con changes his tune in his second round, arguing for cooperation with other countries in Asia to bring China down. However, Pro offers a satisfactory rebuttal, pointing out that China's political and economic leverage over Asia would make orchestrating a unified front to bring the CCP down quite challenging.

Conduct to Pro for Con's forfeiture.

All in all, a fun debate. I personally love playful topics like this.