THBT: Over the course of the American Civil War, US Grant's generalship proved to be superior to the generalship of RE Lee
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After 2 votes and with 6 points ahead, the winner is...
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THBT: Over the course of the American Civil War, US Grant's generalship proved to be superior to the generalship of RE Lee.
DEFINITIONS:
The AMERICAN CIVIL WAR was "a civil war in the United States from 1861 to 1865, fought between the northern United States (loyal to the Union) and the southern United States (that had seceded from the Union and formed the Confederacy)."
ULYSSES S. GRANT was "an American soldier and politician who served as the 18th president of the United States from 1869 to 1877. Before his presidency, Grant led the Union Army as Commanding General of the United States Army in winning the American Civil War."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_S._Grant
ROBERT E LEE was "an American and Confederate soldier, best known as a commander of the Confederate States Army. He commanded the Army of Northern Virginia in the American Civil War from 1862 until its surrender in 1865."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_E._Lee
GENERALSHIP [noun] is "the skills or performance of a good general; military leadership, strategy."
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/generalship
SUPERIOR [adjective] is "higher in quality."
BURDEN of PROOF
Burden of Proof is shared.
PRO must prove that Grant was superior to Lee in military leadership.
CON must prove that Lee was superior to Grant in military leadership.
No alternative approaches are invited (i.e.' Sherman was superior to both', or 'Jackson was the only true leader of men', etc)
PRO is requesting sincere and friendly engagement on this subject.
No trolls or kritiks, please.
- RULES --
1. Forfeit=auto loss
2. Sources may be merely linked in debate as long as citations are listed in comments
3. No new args in R3
4. For all relevant terms, individuals should use commonplace understandings that fit within the rational context of this resolution and debate
- Grant was the winningest general of the war, defeating six confederate armies.
- Only three entire armies surrendered during the war's course from Bull Run to Appomattox:
- Buckner’s at Fort Donelson,
- Pemberton’s at Vicksburg, and
- Lee’s at Appomattox.
- All three surrenders were Confederate surrenders to US Grant.
"As the byproduct of a string of battlefield victories, he forced the unconditional surrender of three enemy armies something no other general officer in American history ever accomplished." [1]
- The number one job of any general is to be victorious in the event of war.
- Grant did his job.
- Lee did not.
- After Lincoln gave Grant command of the whole Union army in March 1864, Grant chose to stay with Meade's Army of the Potomac.
- Grant did not underestimate Lee as an enemy
- Grant coordinated six simultaneous attacks to keep Lee and Johnston from reinforcement
- Meade & Grant occupied Lee
- Butler occupied the defenses at Richmond
- Sigel marched up the Shenandoah Valley
- Crook flanked in WV
- Sherman faced Johnston over Atlanta
- Banks captured Mobile, AL
- Unlike all previous Union commanders of the Army of the Potomac, Grant did not pause after battle with Lee
"Although previous Union campaigns in Virginia targeted the Confederate capital of Richmond as their primary objective, this time the goal was to capture Richmond by aiming for the destruction of Lee's army. Lincoln had long advocated this strategy for his generals, recognizing that the city would certainly fall after the loss of its principal defensive army. Grant ordered Meade, "Wherever Lee goes, there you will go also."" [2]
"Although disappointed by the tactical setbacks, Grant refused to accept defeat, and in doing so transformed the battle into a strategic victory for the Union. When a general worried about Lee's next move, Grant tersely replied, "I am heartily tired of hearing what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land on our rear and on both our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do. And what Grant did, instead of retreating as the Army of the Potomac had always done in the past, was march south. When the troops realized what was happening, they wildly and spontaneously cheered Grant. The Northern press followed suit, praising the general-in-chief's determination to confront Lee." [3]
- Grant's maneuver proved irresistible: Four times, Grant engaged Lee with his right while sending whatever he could left (South) to try to get between Lee and Richmond. In the space of six weeks Lee was forced to Petersburg, where he could either maneuver or keep Richmond but he could not do both.
- That is, in just over 6 weeks, Grant's strategy and initiative achieved what McDowell, McClellan, Burnside, Hooker, and Meade could not accomplish in the 3 years prior. Victory was inevitable after this although the siege lasted another nine months.
"Inspired by baseball sabermetrics, I opted to use a system of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR is often used as an estimate of a baseball player’s contributions to his team. It calculates the total wins added (or subtracted) by the player compared to a replacement-level player. For example, a baseball player with 5 WAR contributed 5 additional wins to his team, compared to the average contributions of a high-level minor league player. WAR is far from perfect, but provides a way to compare players based on one statistic.I used Wikipedia’s lists of battles as a starting point. While not comprehensive, Wikipedia’s lists include 3,580 unique battles and 6619 generals, which provided a sufficient sample to create a model. I then developed a function that could scrape key information for each battle, including all of the commanders involved in the battle, the total forces available to those commanders, and the outcome of the battle. The resulting dataset provided a large sample of battles to create a baseline (replacement-level) performance, against which I would compare the performance of individual generals." [4]
"Grant's performance commanding Union troops in 16 battles earned him the seventh spot on the list – and the U.S. presidency. Although his performance on the battlefield is clearly much better than those of his contemporaries, it should be noted that his Civil War arch-rival, Robert E. Lee, is so far below him on the list that he actually has a negative score." [5]
- Lee, on the other hand, does not even merit a positive score.
"Robert E. Lee, commander of the Confederate States Army, finished with a negative WAR (-1.89), suggesting an average general would have had more success than Lee leading the Confederacy’s armies. Lee was saddled with considerable disadvantages, including a large deficit in the size of his military and available resources. Still, his reputation as an adept tactician is likely undeserved, and his WAR supports the historians who have criticized his overall strategy and handling of key battles, such as ordering the disastrous ‘Pickett’s Charge’ on the last day of the Battle of Gettysburg. In the words of University of South Carolina professor Thomas Connely, “One ponders whether the South may not have fared better had it possessed no Robert E. Lee.” [6]
- The Civil War is correctly characterized as a tactically transitional war.
- The war began with generals on both side who read their Von Clausewitz and emulated Napoleon.
- Wars were won by speed and aggression:
- Summed up in Forest's axiom: "I always make it a rule to get there first with the most men"
- However, significant improvements in
- musket and cannon range and accuracy due to rifling,
- reload rates due to percussion caps, and
- lethality due to ease with which minie ball ammunition shattered bone and penetrated flesh
- increased the range at which an infantry line could deliver destruction five-fold,
- making direct charges increasingly less successful.
- A generation of generals who learned to succeed by constant offensive failed to adapt to the new, profound advantage to well-entrenched defenders.
- Grant acquired an reputation as a butcher who favored frontal assaults but should remember that Grant was always on the offensive,
- he fought every battle as an invader not a defender.
- Lee chose the offensive even when the overall strategic goal should have been preserve the Confederacy until the US gave up- a defensive objective.
- Grant should have the far higher casualty rate as the attacker but in fact Grant's losses in terms of real numbers and percentages are far better than Lee's.
By imposing 191,000 casualties on his opponents, Grant achieved a plus-37,000 margin. Considering the breadth and depth of Grant’s successes in a necessarily offensive mode, even a negative-37,000 margin would have been expected and militarily acceptable. What he achieved with his tolerable losses was amazing. Grady McWhiney and Perry D. Jamieson, who shed light on Grant and Lee’s casualties in their book Attack and Die: Civil War Military Tactics and the Southern Heritage, point out that an average of “only” 15 percent of Grant’s Federal troops were killed or wounded in his major campaigns over the course of the war, a total of slightly more than 94,000 men. In contrast, Lee had greater casualties both in percentages and real numbers: An average of 20 percent of his troops were killed or wounded in his major campaigns, a total of more than 121,000 (far more than any other Civil War general). Lee had 80,000 of his men killed or wounded in his first 14 months in command (about the same number he started with)." [7]
- Grant saw the entire theater of war and his strategies reflect national perspectives, particularly the prioritization of Vicksburg and the coordinated attacks of 1864.
- Lee's strategic scope seldom ranged beyond his beloved state and army of Virginia and Richmond.
"Grant is considered Americas' first modern general, leading from a central command center, using common sense, and delivering coordinated attacks on the enemies armies." [8]
- Grant's reputation garnered less of the romantic deification that Lincoln and Lee acquired during the war. Grant had little of Lee's charisma or McLellan's erudition but
- Grant won the Civil War through
- stubborn single-mindedness,
- an absolute focus on his target
- Clarity of purpose
- Grant's objectives and orders were famously laconic, direct and unmistakable
- superior resourcefulness,
- Grant practiced a policy of maximum utilization,
- particularly demonstrated by the use of all available soldiers on every front.
- Less than any other Civil War general, Grant saw little value in reserves
- unshakeable fortitude and guts
"A famous anecdote encapsulates Grant's unflinching attitude to temporary setbacks and his tendency for offensive action. Sometime after midnight, Sherman encountered Grant standing under a tree, sheltering himself from the pouring rain and smoking one of his cigars, while considering his losses and planning for the next day. Sherman remarked, "Well, Grant, we've had the devil's own day, haven't we?" Grant looked up. "Yes," he replied, followed by a puff. "Yes. Lick 'em tomorrow, though. [9]
“In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten. Then he who continues the attack wins.” [10]
- In spite of popular reputation, Grant merits full credit for the Union victory and was the best general of the Civil War.
Lee was saddled with considerable disadvantages, including a large deficit in the size of his military and available resources.
Lee is usually accounted the superior commander. He scored outrageous victories against the Army of the Potomac up until Gettysburg 1863, fighting against superior numbers and better supplied troops. His victory at Chancellorsville, where he divided his army three times in the face of the enemy while being outnumbered three to one, is a master class in the use of speed and maneuver as a force multiplier.
Lee also had the difficult task of implementing a strategy to win the war that required him to invade the northern states, which he did twice. Lee also had the difficult task of implementing a strategy to win the war that required him to invade the northern states, which he did twice. He knew the South couldn’t just sit back and hold what it had: the North was too strong and some sort of early end to the war had to be found, probably a negotiated peace after a shock Union defeat in Pennsylvania or Maryland.
Grant won the war—but hardly due to his ability as a tactician.
- More due to Grant's strategic talents than tactics. Lee lost because of his overreliance on tactics.
- Grant saw the big picture. Lee did not.
- CON does not dispute that WINNING the WAR is the ultimate test of success as a general.
The Union had a larger population, an industrial economy, and more natural resources. In 1863, at the peak of troop strength, the Union army had twice as many soldiers as the Confederates
- But as Marathon, Agincourt, the Winter War and Vietnam teach us, geography is not destiny. Lee had the advantages of interior lines across incredibly difficult and defendable terrain, superior morale, food supplies, and home field advantage. Lee forgot what Grant never did: the South was a fortress that the North had to conquer, whereas the South only needed to survive that siege. Lee overdefended Virginia and invaded the North at the expense of the crucial Western theater, which neglect Grant exploited to divide the South twice, first along the Mississippi and then again at Atlanta. Grant's bigger picture thinking won the war.
- CON dropped all of these arguments, particularly:
- Grant's grand, coordinated six point offensive
- Grant made Lee the goal, not Richmond
- Grant did in 6 weeks what 5 previous US generals couldn't do in 3 years: confine Lee
[Arsht] gives us only a general overview of his method and his results, but not a comprehensive list of data used.... the data used to calculate each general's score also factors in only the size of each division
- As Arsht states, [Moneyball style] "is far from perfect, but provides a way to compare players based on one statistic."
- CON argues 7 times that the Union had the numerical advantage but then dismisses Arsht's rational approach towards evaluating that advantage.
- No, Arsht isn't claiming to be comprehensive, but the data gives a pretty succinct picture:
- In 16 major battles, Grant only lost one and seldom engaged until he he had a numerical advantage
- In 27 major battles, Lee only won 8 and lost some battles he clearly should have won (like Cheat Mountain and Malvern Hill, for example)
this ranks Napoleon as the top general of all time despite his huge tactical blunder of invading Russia
- If overextension to Russia should cost Napoleon his reputation, why shouldn't Lee's overextension to Antietam and then again to Gettysburg not cost Lee his reputation?
- Of course, Lee himself also ranked Napoleon as the top general of all time.
- When Lee went to West Point, Napoleon was so dominant that reading French was a requirement and 13 West Point textbooks Napoleonic studies.
- Five of the first six books Lee checked out of the West Point library were on Napoleon
- Of 43 major battles, Napoleon only lost 5, 23 standard deviations above an average general's performance.
- Lee is the second most prolific general in history with 27 battles but lost more battles than an average general's performance would suggest. Unlike Grant or Napoleon, Lee fought some battles he should not have fought and lost some battles he should have won.
- Lee is more comparable to Hannibal-tactically brilliant while losing his country entirely, except that Hannibal won more often than Lee.
By failing to account for [natural resources and an industrial economy] Arsht's plot is mere speculation
- Wouldn't making estimates of the influence of natural resources on a battle's outcome require even more speculation?
- Ultimately, win/loss in battle is the most important factor to any army's consideration.
Grant also made a series of decisions that were fairly obvious, especially after the failures of earlier generals. He was aggressive and used as many of his forces as he could against a smaller army, but this is hardly anything clever.
- That's quite false.
- Grant took Paducah, KY four days after being given his first command of untrained volunteers and without waiting for orders.
- Without orders, Grant raided Belmont against a Confederate force nearly twice that of Grant's
- Against Halleck's direct orders, Grant ran his volunteers to Fort Donelson, the most heavily fortified position in KY against a superior force during an ice storm and won the first of three total surrenders, won Kentucky for the North permanently, opened up the Mississippi to Federal gunboats and earned the nickname "Unconditional Surrender." For his trouble, he was demoted but Lincoln insisted he be given command.
- After Shiloh, Grant was the first US General to understand that the South would not relent given a sufficient punch in the nose but would fight until utterly conquered. Even Lee wasn't thinking that way, "war to the death" until after Antietam.
The Battle of Gettysburg is often viewed as the turning point of the war. George Meade won this battle, not Grant. In fact, Grant wasn't even promoted to General-in-Chief until a year later.
- CON has neglected to read his own source:
- "[Gettysburg] involved the largest number of casualties of the entire war and is often described as the war's turning point due to the Union's decisive victory and concurrence with the Siege of Vicksburg."
- Almost all historians blame Lee for Gettysburg.
- As the great Shelby Foote famously declared,
- "Gettysburg was the price the South paid for Robert E. Lee."
- Gettysburg was Lee's second attempt to unwisely force a decisive victory from the Union, rather than settle for stalemate via attrition.
- " Lee rode out to meet the remains of the division and proclaimed, "All this has been my fault." He had no choice but to withdraw, and he escaped Meade's ineffective pursuit, slipping back into Virginia."
- The fall of Vicksburg, however, was entirely Grant's plan and achievement.
- Particularly, outflanking the heavy defenses at Grand Gulf and frightening Johnston into splitting his remaining forces at Jackson, MS in the week before the siege were brilliant maneuvers entirely credited to Grant.
- As Lincoln put it,
- "Vicksburg is the key. ...The war can never be brought to a close until that key is in our pocket."
- On July 5th, Meade still faced a diminished Army of Northern Virginia but Grant has opened the Mississippi.
- Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas were cut away from the South, isolated by Federal gunboats.
- Now, corn and cattle and cotton could move from New Orleans to Chicago unimpeded. Regular trade with France and England could resume and those nations stopped considering any further military or political intervention.
Grant wasn't even promoted to General-in-Chief until a year later
- That's because Grant was busy winning at Chattanooga, which secured Tennessee for the North and opened up the road to Atlanta.
- Let's note that Grant, the victor of Vicksburg was promoted OVER Meade, the victor of Gettysburg.
- Let's also note that the only other general given a full field commission of this rank was George Washington and only after Lincoln was certain that Grant would not run for President in 1864.
- As Lincoln famously attested after Shiloh, "I can't spare this man, he fights."
- CON dropped entirely PRO's argument that
- Grant was America's first thoroughly modern general and
- Grant's lasting impact on US warfare in the 20th century
- Grant lost fewer men than Lee in spite of constant offensive in an age with more modern weapons ranges
- CON dropped entirely PRO's argument that Grant won the Civil War through
- stubborn single-mindedness,
- an absolute focus on his target
- Clarity of purpose
- Grant's objectives and orders were famously laconic, direct and unmistakable
- superior resourcefulness,
- Grant practiced a policy of maximum utilization,
- particularly demonstrated by the use of all available soldiers on every front.
- Less than any other Civil War general, Grant saw little value in reserves
- unshakeable fortitude and guts
- If overextension to Russia should cost Napoleon his reputation, why shouldn't Lee's overextension to Antietam and then again to Gettysburg not cost Lee his reputation?
Lee also had the difficult task of implementing a strategy to win the war that required him to invade the northern states, which he did twice. He knew the South couldn’t just sit back and hold what it had: the North was too strong and some sort of early end to the war had to be found, probably a negotiated peace after a shock Union defeat in Pennsylvania or Maryland.
the Confederate advance stalled, and Grant was able to rally the Union troops to keep the southerners from escaping.
Preparing for a long siege, his army constructed 15 miles of trenches and enclosed Pemberton’s force of 29,000 men inside the perimeter. It was only a matter of time before Grant, with 70,000 troops, captured Vicksburg.
On November 25, Grant ordered Thomas's Army of the Cumberland to make a diversionary attack only to take the "rifle pits" on Missionary Ridge. However, after the soldiers took the rifle pits, they proceeded on their own initiative without orders to make a successful frontal assault straight up Missionary Ridge...Although the valiant frontal assault was successful, Grant was initially upset because he did not give direct orders for the men to take Missionary Ridge; however, he was satisfied with their results.
Winning the war...doesn't say anything about whether that general is better than his opponent.
- Disagree. A general's capacity to win battles, especially against the odds, is a defining quality in good generals.
We can't even infer this from the casualty rate.
- Disagree. Knowing when to reserve forces and when to spend lives for military advantage is another defining quality in good generals.
- Lee's mandate was defensive: he only needed to force a stalemate and he had little reserves: his success depended on conserving soldiers
- Lee managed to inflict some 240,000 casualties but at the fatal cost of 209,000 irreplaceable casualties
- Grant's mandate was offensive: he needed to besiege and divide the South at any cost and so should have expected to suffer more casualties than he inflicted. Generals in such a position expect to incur more casualties than they inflict.
- But astonishingly, Grant inflicted 191,000 casualties while only incurring 154,000
- Grant's signature tactic of hitting the enemy with everything all at once proved remarkably efficient compared to any other Civil War general
Pro claims that the south had the upper hand
- This is false.
- PRO argues that the South had significant defensive advantages in terms of geography, agriculture, and morale that ought to have been exploited by a more defensive posture (as Gen. Longstreet continually counselled).
- Virginia was expendable to the South in a way that the Mississippi blockade, Chattanooga, and Atlanta were not because that was the only trade route by rail across the interior, but Lee deprioritized and lost all of these lynchpins and the with them, the Southern Interior, before giving up his hometown. Grant prioritized the destruction of the Southern interior trade routes and so won the war.
- CON dropped all of this argument except to say that Grant's victory was inevitable
"due to greater troop strength, more supplies, and a bigger population to draw from."
- Let's note that this continually repeated "inevitable" argument fails to forward CON's argument in any way.
- If defeat was inevitable and Lee knew it then Lee was obliged to surrender and not waste any more lives in pursuit of a lost cause.
- An unwillingness to recognize the inevitable is a strike against any general.
- If defeat was inevitable and Lee did not know it then Lee failed to appreciate the strategic situation.
- A failure to realistically assess the big picture is likewise a strike against any general.
- Unlike CON, Grant rejected any arguments of inevitability and as soon as he had full command, hit the South with everything at his disposal in a well-coordinated and simultaneous assault across the South, and did not stop until Lee surrendered.
- CON failed to dispute any of PRO's argument that Grant's strategic assessment and deployment was superior to any other Civil War generals.
- If victory was so inevitable, why did it take Grant to accomplish in six weeks what 5 Union generals could not accomplish in the prior three years?
The opinion article my opponent links to is still not a reliable source.
- Arsht is quite up front regarding the limitations and advantages of his analysis and so CON's claims regarding reliability can be dismissed as meritless.
- Using Wikipedia statistics for win/loss and troop size, Arsht creates a model for an average general's performance relative to army size differentials and then compares actual generals' performance when faced with that same differential. The model demonstrates that while most generals' actual performance is fairly consistent with a average general's performance, Grant is a positive outlier in wins above average while Lee is a negative outlier in wins below average. A more conservative general (like Longstreet) likely would have won more of Lee's matchups while a more conservative general (like McLellan) likely would have lost more of Grant's matchups.
- Not a statement of fact but a rational statistical approach that has proved invaluable to evaluating individual contributions to sports teams.
Lee's extension into the North was a necessary effort if there was any hope of a shock victory forcing the northern states into submission, even if it was carried out improperly.
- While this is a popular refrain from the romantic Lost Cause revisionists, Lee made the same argument for invading the North in '62 with the result that
- Lee very nearly lost the entire war at Antietam
- "Lee’s and Jackson’s counterattacks at Miller’s Cornfield in the early hours of the battle were acts of tactical suicide, not genius." and
- Lee lost far more troops than he could spare
- Accomplished nothing militarily
- Gave Lincoln the major victory he was looking for to proceed with Emancipation.
- Almost all of Davis and Lee's advisors (including Longstreet) learned the lesson of Antietam and counseled stasis in Northern Virginia while reinforcing the West against Grant. Lee stood nearly alone in convincing Davis to try going North again. This is precisely where the myth of Lee's genius unravels, he was so focused on relieving Northern Virginia and projecting his Army's invincibility that he failed to perceive the unnecessary risk that most other military advisors found obvious.
- Everybody but Lee understood that advancing while your left flank is collapsing is effectively walking into a pincer maneuver. The South went to Gettysburg only because Lee wanted it and his magic reputation overcame wiser counsels to the South's great regret.
- "would have been destroyed by almost any general other than McClellan."
it's hard to say that a good general would have tried to avoid the situation altogether
- Any good general would have avoided attacking a more modern army twice your size entrenched on the high ground even once, much less 3 times.
The battle at Belmont was inconclusive and futile. He also waited to do this until his commanding officer was discharged. Grant also took Fort Donelson mostly due to General Pillow's poor command.
- In R1, CON argued
- Grant also made a series of decisions that were fairly obvious, but this is hardly anything clever.
- Grant's independent decisiveness at Belmont, his frontal attack on a force twice his size at Donelson completely disproves CON's R1 argument but rather than acknowledge his misconception, CON just falls back on less convincing reasons to discount Grant's ability.
- "You [Grant] are vigilant and self-reliant; and, pleased with this, I wish not to obtrude any constraints or restraints upon you." Letter from LIncoln to Grant, 1864
They were already on the run by the time Grant stopped them.
- Grant rode hard 7 miles to rally his force in a sleet storm, counter-attack and drive the Army of Kentucky behind their defenses where 12, 000 surrendered en masse they next morning. The first significant victory for the Union.
That Grant couldn't take Vicksburg earlier is embarrassing.
- History credits Grant's performance at Vicksburg with earning him the position of General-in-Chief
- CON's own source calls Vicksburg "nearly impregnable."
- In 1861, Grant was a failure working in his Dad's leather shop. Two years later, Grant delivered the Mississippi River, Texas, Arkansas, and an army of 33,000 to the Union with the fewer than 800 of his own men killed and CON calls this astonishing victory, "embarrassing."
Of course Grant's army was more modern; the north had an industrial economy
- More to the point, Grant is considered the first modern American general:
- "Through his use of distributed operations, theater-wide logistics, and what today we call “mission command,” he is considered to be the American military’s first operational artist. Importantly, throughout the Civil War, Grant also maximized the cooperation of the Army and the Navy at tactical, operational, and strategic levels, most notably during the Vicksburg campaign and the campaigns of 1864."
- Grant changed the tempo of the war from seasonal campaigning with returns to base for refits and resupply to a full time field operation with head
- The US Marine Corp credits Grant with their fighting style- small, highly capable units spread across a large area of operations will create an advantage over an adversary through the deliberate use of separation and coordinated, independent tactical actions.
- Marine FOBs in Afghanistan, for example
- Longstreet described trying to talk Lee out of Picket's Charge:
- "I thought that it would not do; that the column would have to march a mile under concentrating battery fire, and a thousand yards under long-range musketry; that the conditions were different from those in the days of Napoleon, when field batteries had a range of six hundred yards and musketry about sixty yards. I asked the strength of the column. He stated fifteen thousand. Opinion was then expressed that the fifteen thousand men who could make successful assault over that field had never been arrayed for battle; but he was impatient of listening, and tired of talking, and nothing was left but to proceed."
- Clearly, Longstreet credited Lee's failure at Gettysburg to a lack of appreciation for how the rapid increase in weapons range had made the Napoleonic formations under fire obsolete. Many commanders during WW1 likewise failed to appreciate this very shift in advantage from offense to defense but Grant understood the change as his tactical innovations and surprisingly low casualty numbers bear out.
- "Now, I have carefully searched the military records of both ancient and and modern history, and have never found Grant's superior as a general. I doubt his superior can be found in all history" -Robert E Lee
A general's capacity to win battles, especially against the odds, is a defining quality in good generals.
If he remained in Virginia, Lee would be forced to react to Union movements, whereas in Maryland or Pennsylvania he would hold the initiative...A short thrust into Union territory would not be enough; a protracted stay would be the key to Confederate success...Facing critical shortages of food, Lee knew that a movement into the untouched agricultural regions of Maryland and Pennsylvania’s Cumberland Valley held significant promise. If positioned northwest of Washington, Lee could force the Federals to remain between him and their capital, thus liberating war-exhausted northern and north-central Virginia, as well as the Shenandoah Valley, from the presence of the contending armies.
Beyond maintaining the strategic offensive and improving his logistical situation, Lee sensed an opportunity to affect political events in the United States. He read Northern newspapers carefully and knew that bitter debates raged between Northern Republicans and Democrats about civil liberties, the conduct of the war, and emancipation.
Arsht is quite up front regarding the limitations and advantages of his analysis
The model demonstrates that while most generals' actual performance is fairly consistent with a average general's performance, Grant is a positive outlier in wins above average while Lee is a negative outlier in wins below average.
this was a fourth-hand account, supposedly heard by one person two to fourteen months earlier (depending on the meaning of “last April”) in conversation with a second person who had talked to a third person two to four years previously who, in turn, had heard it from General Lee some ten or fifteen years before that.
I think this debate largely comes down to framing. Pro frames this discussion mostly around bigger picture tactics with an emphasis on how the two armies should have behaved to best harness their advantages. Part of showcasing this is just in the numbers of casualties and the overall qualitative victories in the war, but there's also the factor of better addressing the mandate that the army needed to follow, better recognizing how the battle would work with his more modernized military, and, on Lee's side, failing to recognize when the cause was lost and failing to utilize their superior defensive position.
Con's focus is largely on individual battles, and though Pro does spend time here, it's really the lion's share of Con's argument. He's much more focused on tactical superiority in these encounters, with some broader concerns as well. Rather than focusing on a mandate, Con discusses the need for Lee to act offensively in order to strike at the North and potentially end the war, viewing any protracted effort as an automatic loss. This somewhat contrasts with his own argument that Grant wasn't the reason for the Union's success so much as the Union's resource advantages, suggesting that the Union's victory was inevitable regardless of their leadership.
One of the key factors to consider that I'm surprised doesn't get that much attention in this debate (it does get mentioned later in the debate but rather minimally) is that much of how we evaluate their effectiveness now is the result of good hindsight. We know now that the Confederacy likely could never have won the war, so does that mean that, at the time, Lee should have been aware of it? I agree with Con that he likely wouldn't, but that introduces a lot of questions as to whether, at the time, a lot of these choices made sense. Lee's tactical choice to act offensively was contradicted by many others at the time. In retrospect, it was probably his only way to effectively win the war, and even at the time he would have been aware of the resource disparity and how that would have affected a defensive effort, but I'm unclear that this isn't another instance of hindsight playing a role. Considering hindsight was mentioned for the first time in R3 (admittedly in response to an argument Pro made in R3), it's hard to know how much of a role it plays in evaluating what these generals should have done at the time.
That being said, I think Pro takes this debate. Even if I buy a lot of what Con is telling me about Grant's successes and how they came from other elements beyond Grant, he was the general in charge and the results came from his utilization of those resources. Another general might have been able to do it, but Pro presents examples of generals that were clearly failing in that regard. Maybe they were all just really bad at their jobs, but Grant presents as a clear step up. By contrast, while Lee certainly had impressive victories in many battles, it's unclear that he made good wider view strategic choices. He used outdated tactics that didn't recognize the modernization of weaponry beyond Napoleon's era, he pushed the highly risky effort to invade the North, prioritized defending their capital over more strategic sites (Con's response to that comes in R3 where Pro could not address it, despite Pro's making that point in R1 and R2), and while the attack on the North might have made sense in retrospect, it's unclear that it was the smartest move at the time with a highly aggressive, multipronged attack from Grant proceeding into the South. The defensive effort had its flaws, but it would have at least been responsive to the existential threat they were facing at the time. Even if I gave Con the point on attacking North being the best possible choice, that alone with the individual tactical successes just doesn't stand as enough to win over the successes of Grant that stand largely unopposed, if somewhat mitigated by the uncertainty of who/what caused them.
This is a fairly close one. Due to time constraints, I will not be able to properly express that in this vote (preventing such a good debate from being wholly unvoted, takes priority; and yes, I'll gladly expand this later in the comments if anyone would like).
Napoleon:
I think con focused way too much here, when it was an obvious double standard which when applied topically said so many bad things about Lee. As for the source not factoring in the benefits of an airforce... Need I even say it? A navy is somewhat applicable, but I did not see the push on that front.
Casualties:
This should not be understated. 0.87 vs 0.81 is not that wide a margin, but first it favors Grant, and second Lee had less replacements available anyways magnifying the effects of any losses.
Grant's ineptitude:
Con seemed to present Grant as merely a yes man who did what he was told, but pro was able to show that Grant directly disobeyed orders to secure victories for the north; putting his career at risk in a way other Union generals did not. His men then repeating that insubordination, was a in retrospect an amusing bit of Irony. He may have been a Babe Ruth figure standing out due to other Union generals being so mediocre, but he did stand out, and further quickly bested Lee when other generals had failed to do so.
Lee's cost to the confederacy:
Had Lee's ambition to crush the north worked, we'd be recalling this so differently... But the fact is, much like Napoleon's blunder in Russia (which con faults the data for not costing him more), it didn't work, and it cost his side more than it could afford to pay on such a gamble.
Moneyball:
Even if it's an imperfect analysis, it seemed well done. As a numbers guy who constructs charts, it is appealing to me; even if I don't see the exact inputs used. I am not spotting a similar statistical analysis offered by con which puts Lee ahead of Grant; which would be a good way to challenge the conclusions it made.
Thanks for voting!
Thanks for voting!
Thanks for voting!
crybaby oromagi gets a win, good for him :)
I might be able to vote on this. But first I need sleep
much appreciated
Can't promise anything with such a short amount of time left, but I'll try.
I won’t be able to vote on this one in time.
less than 24 hrs left. zero votes
two day left
please.....
ump the bump
About one week left to vote
Of course I will vote on this, as I am the only person I trust to get the decision right. I can't let someone like Barney ruin this again, and doing such when I have preventative ability is but, immoral.
two weeks left to vote!
Why is it always that the guys who are blocking me want to have more conversation after blocking me than before? Blocking just seems so impotent as an expression of one's 'bate rage. If you want to have a conversation you should unblock me and do it in QUESTIONS. I still have a lot of QUESTIONs to ask and answer to get those last gold medals.
You started berating me and winding me up months ago. Now you insult me further after voting what you think is a troll debate.
You want a war, be ready.
Lmao you want respect, learn to give it, you insolent hypocrite.
@RationalMadman
Why would any VOTE on one your debates impact your honest analysis of any other debate?
I vote for and against your arguments all the time according to their quality and the quality of your opponent. You can't honestly argue that your recent troll debate wasn't super lazy shit fully deserving of a down vote. I read this as your confession that you are a dishonest VOTER generally, which goes a long way towards explaining why you so readily assume dishonesty in your associates.
Seems fair to ask that that VOTERS should refrain from VOTING on users' debates whom they have blocked. It stands to reason that if they are blocking that user for any honest cause, then they would also avoid that user's debates for fear of unfair prejudice. I'm forced to assume that either RM's reasons for blocking me (whatever they might be) are dishonest or his reasons for choosing to VOTE now are merely expression of prejudice with no genuine respect for objectivity.
Both if you have given terrible votes against me, so I can happily vote against both. I will be voting on this.
Plz vote if you have time
CON's R3 Sources
1. https://www.nps.gov/articles/industry-and-economy-during-the-civil-war.htm#:~:text=By%201860%2C%2090%20percent%20of,100%20produced%20in%20the%20South.
2. https://www.britannica.com/event/Anaconda-plan
3. https://www.essentialcivilwarcurriculum.com/the-union-blockade-of-the-southern-states.html
4. https://www.nps.gov/articles/industry-and-economy-during-the-civil-war.htm#:~:text=The%20Union's%20industrial%20and%20economic,mobilization%20of%20resources%20more%20difficult.
5. http://projects.leadr.msu.edu/usforeignrelations/exhibits/show/british-involvement-in-the-ame#:~:text=In%20order%20to%20avert%20open,use%20and%20expansion%20of%20slavery.
6. https://study.com/learn/lesson/secession-from-the-union.html#:~:text=Southern%20states%20seceded%20from%20the,rights%2C%20and%20promote%20tariff%20laws.
7. https://www.historyonthenet.com/grant-and-lees-winning-civil-war-strategy
8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_theater_of_the_American_Civil_War
9. https://www.legendsofamerica.com/ah-easterntheater/
10. https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/robert-e-lees-decision-invade-north-september-1862
11. https://www.battlefields.org/learn/civil-war/battles/antietam
12. https://www.wondriumdaily.com/robert-e-lee-the-greatest-confederate-general/#:~:text=Robert%20E.%20Lee's%20Strategy%20in%20War&text=And%20that%20was%20what%20he,to%20what%20the%20enemy%20did.
13. https://www.newsletter.co.uk/heritage-and-retro/heritage/icon-civil-war-just-how-great-general-was-robert-e-lee-2985375
14. https://www.history.com/topics/american-civil-war/battle-of-the-wilderness#:~:text=The%20Battle%20of%20the%20Wilderness%20ended%20inconclusively%2C%20though%20the%20Union,toll%20suffered%20by%20the%20Confederates.
15. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fort_Donelson#Breakout_attempt_(February_15)
16. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Vicksburg#Assaults
17. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Vicksburg#Assaults
18. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Vicksburg#Siege_operations
19. https://www.grantunderfire.com/738/when-is-a-quote-on-ulysses-s-grant-insufficient-for-historical-purposes/
PRO's R3 SOURCES:
https://www.historynet.com/the-butchers-bill/
https://www.historynet.com/the-butchers-bill/
https://encyclopediavirginia.org/entries/longstreet-james-1821-1904/
https://www.historyonthenet.com/grant-and-lees-winning-civil-war-strategy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Cause_of_the_Confederacy
https://www.historyonthenet.com/general-lee
https://www.britannica.com/event/Battle-of-Antietam
https://www.mrlincolnswhitehouse.org/residents-visitors/the-generals-and-admirals/generals-admirals-ulysses-s-grant-1822-1885
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fort_Donelson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Vicksburg
https://mwi.usma.edu/ulysses-s-grant-command-control-multi-domain-battlespace-future/
https://ehistory.osu.edu/articles/us-grant-and-operations-0
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA603255.pdf
https://www.originalsources.com/Document.aspx?DocID=CWGLBE73DSD3WYT
https://digmichnews.cmich.edu/?a=d&d=GrandTraverseGTH18850910-01.1.4&e=-------en-10--1--txt-txIN----------
Yeah
Do you want me to vote on this debate?
CON's R2 Sources
1. https://owlcation.com/humanities/Southern-Advantages-Three-Ways-the-Confederacy-had-the-Upper-Hand-in-the-Civil-War
2. https://history.state.gov/milestones/1861-1865/blockade#:~:text=President%20Abraham%20Lincoln%20sided%20with,all%20the%20major%20southern%20ports.
3. https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/total-war-civil-wars-effect-home-front#:~:text=The%20American%20Civil%20War%20has,in%20which%20soldiers%20remained%20widely
4. https://www.english.uga.edu/sites/default/files/2009-2010_Barnett_Mays_John.pdf
5. https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/north-and-south
6. https://www.ushistory.org/us/33b.asp#:~:text=The%20South%20could%20produce%20all,proved%20to%20be%20very%20resourceful.
6 again (accidentally wrote same number twice). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_soldiers_in_the_American_Civil_War
7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Gettysburg
8. https://towardsdatascience.com/napoleon-was-the-best-general-ever-and-the-math-proves-it-86efed303eeb
9. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/which-general-was-better-ulysses-s-grant-or-robert-e-lee-180952005/
10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_S._Grant_and_the_American_Civil_War#Battles_of_Belmont,_Fort_Henry,_and_Fort_Donelson
11. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_S._Grant_and_the_American_Civil_War#Battles_of_Belmont,_Fort_Henry,_and_Fort_Donelson
12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Gettysburg
13. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Vicksburg
14. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anaconda_Plan
15. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_S._Grant_and_the_American_Civil_War#The_Battle_of_Vicksburg
16. https://www.history.com/topics/american-civil-war/vicksburg-campaign#:~:text=Grant%20made%20some%20attacks%20after,with%2070%2C000%20troops%2C%20captured%20Vicksburg.
17. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Jackson,_Mississippi
18. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_S._Grant_and_the_American_Civil_War#Chattanooga
19. https://www.battlefields.org/learn/primary-sources/lincolns-unsent-letter-george-meade
20. https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/napoleon-invades-russia
21. https://www.wondriumdaily.com/robert-e-lee-the-greatest-confederate-general/#:~:text=Robert%20E.%20Lee's%20Strategy%20in%20War&text=And%20that%20was%20what%20he,to%20what%20the%20enemy%20did.
PRO's R2 SOURCES
https://owlcation.com/humanities/Southern-Advantages-Three-Ways-the-Confederacy-had-the-Upper-Hand-in-the-Civil-War
https://www.ushistory.org/us/33b.asp#:~:text=The%20South%20could%20produce%20all,proved%20to%20be%20very%20resourceful.
https://towardsdatascience.com/napoleon-was-the-best-general-ever-and-the-math-proves-it-86efed303eeb
http://npshistory.com/series/symposia/gettysburg_seminars/16/essay2.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_S._Grant_and_the_American_Civil_War
https://www.acwrt.org.uk/post/gettysburg-day-3-areconsideration
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_E._Lee
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_S._Grant_and_the_American_Civil_War
CON's R1 Sources:
1. https://www.coreknowledge.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/CKHG-G5-U11-about-advantages-and-disadvantages.pdf
2. https://www.nps.gov/civilwar/facts.htm#:~:text=In%20July%201861%2C%20the%20two,January%201863%20totaled%20over%20600%2C000.
3. https://ethanarsht.github.io/military_rankings/
4. https://americanhistory.si.edu/lincoln/lincolns-generals
5. https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/ulysses-s-grant-s-path-to-victory-the-1864-overland-campaign.htm
6. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Gettysburg
7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War#Union_blockade
8. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smithsonian-institution/which-general-was-better-ulysses-s-grant-or-robert-e-lee-180952005/
9. https://civilwar.vt.edu/robert-e-lee-the-eternal-general/
10. https://www.newsletter.co.uk/heritage-and-retro/heritage/icon-civil-war-just-how-great-general-was-robert-e-lee-2985375
11. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Wilderness#Grant's_plan
12. https://www.history.com/topics/american-civil-war/battle-of-the-wilderness#:~:text=The%20Battle%20of%20the%20Wilderness%20ended%20inconclusively%2C%20though%20the%20Union,toll%20suffered%20by%20the%20Confederates.
13. https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/total-war-civil-wars-effect-home-front#:~:text=The%20American%20Civil%20War%20has,in%20which%20soldiers%20remained%20widely
14. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/congress-passes-civil-war-conscription-act#:~:text=During%20the%20Civil%20War%2C%20the,becoming%20citizens%2C%20by%20April%201.
15. https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/featured-documents/emancipation-proclamation#:~:text=President%20Abraham%20Lincoln%20issued%20the,and%20henceforward%20shall%20be%20free.%22
16. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-lincoln/lincoln-letter-on-gettysburg-found-at-u-s-archives-idUSN0720751120070607
PRO's R1 SOURCES:
[1]https://www.battlefields.org/learn/articles/ulysses-s-grant-myth-unconditional-surrender-begins-fort-donelson
[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overland_Campaign
[3]https://www.encyclopediavirginia.org/Battle_of_the_Wilderness
[4]https://towardsdatascience.com/napoleon-was-the-best-general-ever-and-the-math-proves-it-86efed303eeb
https://ethanarsht.github.io/military_rankings/
https://ethanarsht.github.io/military_rankings/Robert%20E.%20Lee.html
[5]https://www.wearethemighty.com/history/best-generals-ranked-by-statistics?rebelltitem=10#rebelltitem10
[6]https://towardsdatascience.com/napoleon-was-the-best-general-ever-and-the-math-proves-it-86efed303eeb
[7]https://www.historynet.com/the-butchers-bill.htm
[8]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulysses_S._Grant_and_the_American_Civil_War
[9]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Shiloh
[10]https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/ulysses-s-grant-1#ulysses-grant-quotes