U.S. Governors Mafia DP1

Author: ILikePie5

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That2User
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You are trying to frame me? Just vote me. If not, then vote WF.

Frame you? What? What am I framing you doing?

ILikePie5
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Official Vote Count:

Supa (2/6) - Austin, Barney
Whiteflame (1/6) - RM
RationalMadman (1/6) - Wylted

Barney
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In case of any shenanigans in the night…

Unvote SupaDudz
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And for anyone trying to catch up…

Player                          Character           Role
Austin                           F?
Barney                         M
Whiteflame                .
Wylted                         .
That2User                  .
Badger                         .
Greyparrot                 Evers (M/Dem)
SirAnonymous         .
Best Korea                 Whitmer (F/Dem)
SupaDudz                                                  Confirmable
RationalMadman   M/Rep                   Confirmable

PREZ-HILTON
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@That2User
I don't think not shutting up is enough to vote him, not shutting up is the point of DPI

This makes it sound like you completely misunderstood everything I said
Best.Korea
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I will just say what I think so far.

Wylted says he is confirmed town right at the start. I am not really confident in the point of his claim. He is obviously not confirmed town. I am not sure what he tried to achieve there. If the point was to get scum to focus on it, it didnt seem to work since it was too obvious.

Austin says he will be busy and wont be active for 3 days. He does give us info about his governor, however this could very easily be a fake claim to justify inactivity and not get lynched.

Supa says "Hello" and goes inactive for a long time. However, he comes back online and starts with activity. So I dont read his early inactivity as scum. 

Badger says he is not gonna be active at all in this dp. This is helping the scum . Doesnt help town at all.

Whiteflame seems to be giving confusing explanations.
He says "Austin's soft claim was not a town indication", then adds "Austin's decision to do soft claim was a town indication".
I am not a fan of these mixed messages, and I am not trusting anyone's "inner feeling" on the matter.
SirAnonymous
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I see no downside to claiming gender and party. The only thing that helps mafia is information that would allow them to guess roles, and I can't see how gender and party would help them do that.

My governor is a Republican woman.
SirAnonymous
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Regarding more notable events:

Best.Korea's full claim was a bad move, but I think it is more likely to be noob town than scum.

RM is far too certain that WF is scum. That doesn't necessarily mean that he's wrong, so I will have to look into Whiteflame's behavior in past games, which I will do after finishing this post. Also, this feels more like town RM than mafia RM. It could be that RM is mafia and he's betting that people will think he's town if he plays to his meta of tunneling, so he just picked something vaguely suspicious and went for it. That's completely possible, but I think it's more likely he's town.

Wylted's theory that RM is trying to get people to vote for him seems quite far-fetched. If so, RM's plan would be:
1. Tunnel Whiteflame.
2. Hope that Whiteflame has an extreme case of OMGUS and tries to lynch RM.
3. Hope that the town believes Whiteflame more than himself and vote for RM.
Doesn't seem very likely at all. If RM wanted people to vote for him to confirm his role, it seems far simpler to just say, "I can be role-confirmed if you vote for me." I'm not sure whether this theory is more likely to come from a town Wylted or a mafia Wylted.
whiteflame
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@PREZ-HILTON
He is trying to get some votes on him for some role activated by someone voting him somehow or some other such nonsense. Maybe he can silence people voting on him or steal their vote or something 
I don't buy it. This seems like pretty normal RM behavior to me, shifting his tunnel vision around until he finds someone he wants to focus on and then making it a "it's me or him" situation.

whiteflame
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@Best.Korea
Whiteflame seems to be giving confusing explanations.
He says "Austin's soft claim was not a town indication", then adds "Austin's decision to do soft claim was a town indication".
I am not a fan of these mixed messages, and I am not trusting anyone's "inner feeling" on the matter.
I thought I was pretty clear about my thoughts on Austin (only the latter of those pseudoquotes is a somewhat accurate representation of what I said). I view the decision to effectively claim his governor as anti-town, mainly because it helps scum more than it does town. Being anti-town doesn't make someone scum, and I don't think scum would behave as he has.
SirAnonymous
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Whiteflame and DP1 claiming:

Arkhamafia: Mafia. Whiteflame was calm about the early claims, but did discourage further claiming. He did wait a bit even after there were two full claims before discouraging claiming (unless I missed something earlier). They were TP claims, so that does change the dynamics a bit.

Conspiracy Theory Mafia: Town. RM was suspicious of WF and pushing him to soft claim on Page 1 of DP1. WF was calm about the claims, but discouraged further claiming.

NFL Mafia: Town. Not much in the way of excessive DP1 claiming here. Watching town mess up a popcorn, again, for absolutely no reason, did get my blood pressure up, though.

MMA: Mafia. Remained calm in the face of a mass claim, but discouraged further claiming.

RNG: Town. Not a lot of DP1 claims, so no behavior to analyze.

Ozark: Town. Not a lot of DP1 claims.

Went through more games without a lot of DP1 claims until I was over a year in the past. Not going to look further than that.

Overall, I don't see any evidence of Whiteflame panicking as town when there are a bunch of DP1 claims. He seemed calm as both town and mafia.
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@SirAnonymous
I see no downside to claiming gender and party. The only thing that helps mafia is information that would allow them to guess roles, and I can't see how gender and party would help them do that.

My governor is a Republican woman.
I guess I'm in the minority here, but given that there's a theme split and that we know scum only has access to a single fake claim or fake role, I think giving them more information affords them more opportunities to avoid detection. I have a bigger problem with just mass claiming all of our characters to get information, but even this claim narrows the pool of possible options for your character down to 4.
SirAnonymous
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@whiteflame
I didn't think about mafia using it to help fake claim. That's a good point.
Best.Korea
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@whiteflame
Being anti-town doesn't make someone scum
Being anti-town doesnt make someone town.

SirAnonymous
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@Best.Korea
No, it isn't much of an indication either way. Anti-town behavior needs to be judged on a case-by-case basis. In this case, revealing too much information about one's character is an indication of an inexperienced town player more than it is of scum.
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@Best.Korea
Being anti-town doesnt make someone town.
I agree with SirAnon's point. There are lots of ways to be anti-town and some of them will come off as scummy. This didn't.

SirAnonymous
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@Greyparrot
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@Vader
What is your analysis of RM's theory about Whiteflame being mafia?
Best.Korea
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@whiteflame
I agree with SirAnon's point.
Is a correct statement. 

Your point was: "slight town read", which you supported by saying "he is anti-town, but its okay" and "he didnt react as scum that one time".

To me, it seems like you tried to make up any reason possible to have this "slight town read".

Your first reason doesnt even support your read, and your second reason is based on an unlikely assumption of "scum would fail in that reaction".
whiteflame
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@Best.Korea
Is a correct statement. 

Your point was: "slight town read", which you supported by saying "he is anti-town, but its okay" and "he didnt react as scum that one time".

To me, it seems like you tried to make up any reason possible to have this "slight town read".

Your first reason doesnt even support your read, and your second reason is based on an unlikely assumption of "scum would fail in that reaction".
You keep quoting me as though I said those things precisely. I did say "slight town read," but the rest is inaccurate and excludes context.

I said that he shouldn't have responded the way he did, but that my read was that he would have behaved differently if he was scum. The context for that view is that he wouldn't have effectively given his actual claim if he was scum. It's fine if you don't agree with that, it's a gut read, as most reads are at this stage, and it's based on limited information, which is all we have. There's a reason that my reads are slight and not hard reads. I'll note that, despite your summaries, you were largely unwilling to commit to any reads, giving vague perspectives on a handful of people without any town reads. It's fine if you don't like my perspectives, but a lack of any analysis on half the people in this game isn't an improvement.
SirAnonymous
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I'm beginning to dislike Best.Korea's logic. First the statistics, now repeatedly misunderstanding Whiteflame. I'm guessing it's just noob behavior, though.
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@whiteflame
my read was that he would have behaved differently
And to support that you say:

he wouldn't have effectively given his actual claim
This sounds like a terribly unclear assumption.

His claim was not effectively given by his own words. He said it was "not easy to decode", only to have it decoded few comments later.

That2User
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@PREZ-HILTON
He isn't going to shut up about it until we get some votes on him. He already said it doesn't confirm affiliation but he seems in a rush to prove himself 
You're saying RM will continually want to be voted to activate the role , I get that, I'm saying RM's insistence alone isn't enough to vote him
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@SirAnonymous
What is your analysis of RM's theory about Whiteflame being mafia?
Pretty sure I’ve seen RM do this before. If memory serves by coincidence he was right, but his logic didn’t add up.

Ultimately, I view it as fluff.
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@That2User
You're saying RM will continually want to be voted to activate the role , I get that, I'm saying RM's insistence alone isn't enough to vote him
You have a point. If he wants me to help him activate it he can say so when he comes back on. He said it isn't affiliation indicative so not sure why he is pushing it

Unvote

vTL best. Korea
SirAnonymous
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@PREZ-HILTON
Why do you think that RM is trying to get people to vote for him rather than genuinely targeting Whiteflame? If he wanted people to vote for him to confirm a role, why wouldn't he just say so?
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@Best.Korea
my read was that he would have behaved differently
And to support that you say:

he wouldn't have effectively given his actual claim
This sounds like a terribly unclear assumption.

His claim was not effectively given by his own words. He said it was "not easy to decode", only to have it decoded few comments later.
Yes, it seems like he actually thought that he was soft-claiming in a way that would avoid giving away too much information. If he was in a chat with two other scum, I don't think that either of his teammates would have advised him to do that. It's a weird move to make as scum because, despite what he said about not giving away his character claim completely, he did anyway.

At this point, I don't know what you're looking for from me. You said you understood my justification just a few posts ago, you just don't like that I phrased it more vaguely initially. Seems like you have a problem with gut reads in general, so maybe that's the problem, but that isn't going to change and honestly, I'm not sure why you're focusing on me if that's the case. I've given more justification for my reads than most anyone in this DP.
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@SirAnonymous
Why do you think that RM is trying to get people to vote for him rather than genuinely targeting Whiteflame? If he wanted people to vote for him to confirm a role, why wouldn't he just say so?
He did say so

Post 186 tries to goat that2 into voting him

 Post 135 by RM

"Vote me, make it a real faceoff then, back your read with action. But if I out, I want you to kneel before me and let me command Town the dp1 and dp2 lynches" goating supa into voting him for a "faceoff"

Post 164

WF vote me immediately 

He has also strongly hinted at it most posts and almost sounds like he is hinting at some gladiator role, but definitely something where he wants someone to vote him, I am willing to oblige if he wants and see what he wants to share.
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@SirAnonymous
Why do you think that RM is trying to get people to vote for him rather than genuinely targeting Whiteflame? If he wanted people to vote for him to confirm a role, why wouldn't he just say so?
He is

You are trying to frame me? Just vote me. If not, then vote WF.
-RM 186
PREZ-HILTON
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So on 3 occasions he begs the following users to vote him

That2, supa and whiteflame

Also after RVS he seemed frustrated that he got online after I switched my vote to Austin, so let's call that 3 and a half attempts at begging someone to vote him. I suspect it is not gladiatorial for the simple reason he only claims a scum read on whiteflame but is asking even people he seems to have a null read on to vote him
SirAnonymous
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@PREZ-HILTON
But why not simply say that he wants people to vote for him because of his role? Why make up a confrontation with Whiteflame? What would that accomplish?