Trend: Conservatives have more kids than liberals do. Exactly to what extent this is true is unknown and obscured by factors like immigration (which tends to increase fertility for the first generation) and race. The white liberal total fertility rate seems to be around an abysmally low ~1.2ish. The correlation between the white total fertility rate by state and Trump's 2020 margin was a strong .79 (source: own research.) However, liberals convert more kids from conservative families than vice versa.
Trend: Immigrants tend to vote Democratic but as they and their children assimilate they start to behave more like the American public. For every new immigrant that's naturalized, there's a second or third generation immigrant who gives the GOP another look, or a second or third generation immigrant who no longer thinks of themselves as distinct from the majority of the population in any way and no longer behaves differently from a generic American.
Trend: Whites tend to vote Republican and minorities tend to vote Democrat, and the number of minority voters is gradually increasing. However: even though America is becoming extremely polarized around *ideas* regarding race, actual voting behavior by race is becoming much less polarized. Minority voters have moved right faster than white voters have moved left, but there are many more white voters so the trends more or less cancel out. Generally Republicans either retained or increased their share of the minority vote in 2022.
Trend: Young voters vote Democratic by huge margins. But: apolitical youngsters in recent cohorts have become conservative leaning voters later on. In 2008, 18-29 year old's voted 66-31% Democratic, 28 points to the left of the country. In 2020 those voters were now mostly in the 30-39 category which voted 51-46% Democratic, about in line with the country. Obviously exit polls are very flawed and imperfect but the trend is clear--the Dem margin was probably a lot higher than 5 points in this group, but it definitely wasn't anywhere near 35 points as in 2008.
Conclusion: Politics in the US will probably remain at a stalemate for a long time, anybody saying that one side has definitely won or lost, can never win again, etc. is most likely just wrong. American politics seems to have reached the point where "every action has an equal and opposite reaction" and one side has to screw up royally to be at a distinct disadvantage
Search "exit poll" below to see voting behavior by demographic
