Countervailing trends in American politics

Trend: Conservatives have more kids than liberals do. Exactly to what extent this is true is unknown and obscured by factors like immigration (which tends to increase fertility for the first generation) and race. The white liberal total fertility rate seems to be around an abysmally low ~1.2ish. The correlation between the white total fertility rate by state and Trump's 2020 margin was a strong .79 (source: own research.) However, liberals convert more kids from conservative families than vice versa.

Trend: Immigrants tend to vote Democratic but as they and their children assimilate they start to behave more like the American public. For every new immigrant that's naturalized, there's a second or third generation immigrant who gives the GOP another look, or a second or third generation immigrant who no longer thinks of themselves as distinct from the majority of the population in any way and no longer behaves differently from a generic American.

Trend: Whites tend to vote Republican and minorities tend to vote Democrat, and the number of minority voters is gradually increasing. However: even though America is becoming extremely polarized around *ideas* regarding race, actual voting behavior by race is becoming much less polarized. Minority voters have moved right faster than white voters have moved left, but there are many more white voters so the trends more or less cancel out. Generally Republicans either retained or increased their share of the minority vote in 2022.

Trend: Young voters vote Democratic by huge margins. But: apolitical youngsters in recent cohorts have become conservative leaning voters later on. In 2008, 18-29 year old's voted 66-31% Democratic, 28 points to the left of the country. In 2020 those voters were now mostly in the 30-39 category which voted 51-46% Democratic, about in line with the country. Obviously exit polls are very flawed and imperfect but the trend is clear--the Dem margin was probably a lot higher than 5 points in this group, but it definitely wasn't anywhere near 35 points as in 2008.

Conclusion: Politics in the US will probably remain at a stalemate for a long time, anybody saying that one side has definitely won or lost, can never win again, etc. is most likely just wrong. American politics seems to have reached the point where "every action has an equal and opposite reaction" and one side has to screw up royally to be at a distinct disadvantage 

Search "exit poll" below to see voting behavior by demographic

PS nominating Trump in 2024 counts as screwing up royally. He's a significantly weaker candidate now than in 2020, since all he wants to do is complain about the last election and is taking meetings with people like Nick Fuentes. It would be like nominating Doug Mastriano across the entire country

Tell us all who to vote for

Ron DeSantis

Ya, I'll vote for him if he is nominated.

For me it was simple. Whether american or not, I think that is not relevant.

I spent enough time and interacted with poor people. My dad in particular went from poor to middle class even middle-upper but raised us stingy so essentially middle.

I would have had every reason to believe in the BS that all poor people can work their way out of being dirt poor with both parents I had if they raised me backing up Conservative values. However, they both had been poor and knew the hell vs mercy of right vs left wing politics. They knew a life/generation where racist, anti-disabled remarks and lgbtphobic attitudes were going to hit you and your friends, on top of hate crime unless you picked left-wing friends.

They knew life where being left-wing was not a choice but a necessity to not starve, if not themselves, their close friends and such.

I was raised to know and understand that without safety nets and protections the left provides the vulnerable, we are no better than sociopathic shitstains who just use religion to pretend we are good. I am a very independent thinker, I did not want to be shepherded into my outlook but in my own way as I grew up have come to agree with my parents at the very least on that the left wing is by far the less evil side of politics today.

I thanks the eright wing for being moderate as times progress but I know the left is the superior option. Idc about trends, I care about reality and morality.

That’s DeSanctimonious

Who should we vote for?

Well after voting for Bush, Palin, and Trump, maybe Republicans should take a break from voting, and take some time to reflect.

Herschel Walker for President 2024!

He has to beat Federwoman first.

Dodges the question