Florida has more crime than San Francisco. How can this be?

Author: IwantRooseveltagain

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#1
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Los Angeles and San Francisco have been catastrophic,” DeSantis said.
[Andrew Warren: DeSantis sacked me for doing my job as a prosecutor. Who’s next?]


But the data tells another story. By my calculation, the homicide rate in San Francisco in 2020 (the last year for which comparable data are available) was 5.5 per 100,000 people. The rate for the state of Florida that year was 7.8, according to the CDC, a remarkable comparison given that crime in cities tends to be higher than crime in states as a whole. The 2020 homicide rate in Los Angeles was, by my calculation, higher at 8.9 per 100,000 people, but that’s still significantly lower than the murder rates in nearly every large locality in Florida, including Miami-Dade County (10.7) and Jacksonville (15.5), and the capital, Tallahassee (14.5).

Journalist Radley Balko
Washington Post

#2
oromagi
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I'll take two exceptions to this data:

  • Homicide rates are not crime rates.  There can be considerable discrepancies.
  • 2020/21 data should be considered unrepresentative due to the Pandemic.
    • For example, San Francisco did way, way more lockdowns and work from home than Florida generally. In fact, DeSantis overrode some Florida Health recommendations for lockdowns, didn't he?  Obviously, when the streets are empty, the few people who are out are and about are less likely to come into conflict, more obvious to police, etc.  and crimes like homicide are likely to be positively affected.

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@oromagi
For example, San Francisco did way, way more lockdowns and work from home than Florida generally. In fact, DeSantis overrode some Florida Health recommendations for lockdowns, didn't he?  Obviously, when the streets are empty, the few people who are out are and about are less likely to come into conflict, more obvious to police, etc.  and crimes like homicide are likely to be positively affected.

Did you bother to comparing murder and crime rates in 2019 to support your theory or did you want someone else to do that for you?
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@IwantRooseveltagain
Did you bother to comparing murder and crime rates in 2019 to support your theory or did you want someone else to do that for you?
  • Not my claim to defend.

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@oromagi
  • Not my claim to defend.
Oh you made a claim. You had a theory about the data and took exception. But you don’t want to do the work.

That’s called being intellectually lazy, right?

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Looks like guns don’t reduce crime after all. Who’d of thought?
#7
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-->@oromagi
  • Not my claim to defend.
Oh you made a claim. You had a theory about the data and took exception. But you don’t want to do the work.
  • False.  I offered two fairly obvious tautologies
    • Homicide data does not equal crime data
    • 2020 was unrepresentative for homicide data
Unless you think you can show that homicide rates are the same thing as crime rates or that 2020 was a perfectly normal year for crime in America, then Balko's claim that this data informs us regarding DeSantis' performance stands disproved.  If you can't show that homicide rates are the same thing as crime rates or that 2020 was a perfectly normal year for crime in America but still wish to show us that DeSantis' is weak on crime, the burden is yours to find more, hopefully more convincing, data. 

 If you can't show that homicide rates are the same thing as crime rates or that 2020 was a perfectly normal year for crime in America but still wish to show us that Florida has more crime per capita then San Francisco the burden is yours to find some other way to prove it.

That’s called being intellectually lazy, right?
Nope.  Not by any rational standard.  The ball is in your court to volley or fault.

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@oromagi

  • False.  I offered two fairly obvious tautologies
    • Homicide data does not equal crime data
    • 2020 was unrepresentative for homicide data
Oh you were offering tautologies, fairly obvious ones? That’s different then.

Homicide data is arguably the most significant crime data. It’s the crime people and law enforcement prioritize.
Just look at how republicans are always talking about murder rates in Chicago and New York as proof that liberals are weak on crime and gun laws don’t make us safer.
But your point is taken and I would amend the question to “Florida has more homicides than liberal, gun restricted SF. How can this be?” which may be considered more precise.

2020 was unrepresentative for homicide data
If 2020 was unrepresentative for homicide data then it was also unrepresentative for crime data.
Covid caused some crimes to increase while other types decreased.


DeSantis' performance stands disproved.
DeSantis has a terrible record on homicide, the most significant type of crime - having a higher homicide rate than SF. A city he has described as “catastrophic”.

If you can't show that homicide rates are the same thing as crime rates or that 2020 was a perfectly normal year for crime in America but still wish to show us that Florida has more crime per capita then San Francisco the burden is yours to find some other way to prove it.
Your non-contribution to understanding why gun toting Florida has a higher homicide rate than liberal San Francisco and Florida urban areas have homicide rates comparable to  more populous American cities is noted. It seems you are more concerned with the process than actual enlightenment .

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“Florida has more homicides than liberal, gun restricted SF. How can this be?”

DeSantis has a terrible record on homicide, the most significant type of crime - having a higher homicide rate than SF. A city he has described as “catastrophic”.

Fine.  Now- is there any evidence from before the Pandemic that supports this claim?
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@oromagi
is there any evidence from before the Pandemic that supports this claim?
That is a valid question. Like I said before, did you want someone else to look that up? Are you interested in enlightenment or just being a debate judge? When did DeSantis become Governor?

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January 8, 2019

Is your Wikipedia broken?

That is more recently than I thought.  It's pretty hard to give all the credit to a guy on his first year, and his second and third year were messed up.  You are going to have a hard time making any legit comparison, I think.
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@oromagi
That is more recently than I thought.  It's pretty hard to give all the credit to a guy on his first year, and his second and third year were messed up.  You are going to have a hard time making any legit comparison, I think.
In that case, he also wouldn’t deserve credit for any decrease in the crime rate in Florida, if there was a decrease in the crime rate. We don’t know.

Should the high homicide rate in 2020 be blamed on the policies of Rick Scott then or just the policies of Republican leadership in general? Republicans  say that more guns and less gun laws make us safer.

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If you really want to make the case you probably have to expand your data sets .

Here'a a pretty good chart on Wikipedia that let's you compare gun ownership rates and gun homicide rates in 2015 and 2019.  While there does seem to be some correlation it is hardly black and white.  I assume a similar breakdown by county would show much higher rates of correlation.
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#14
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Here’s  a pretty good chart on Wikipedia that let's you compare gun ownership rates and gun homicide rates in 2015 and 2019.  
Except in Florida, where the key data is not available. That’s one way to respond.

They can also end heat waves by getting rid of thermometers.

#15
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@IwantRooseveltagain
Perhaps Florida has more criminals per capita.

Maybe the whole vibe relative to time zone, oceanography, topography, culture etc....Makes Californian dudes a whole lot cooler than their Floridian counterparts.

Maybe one shouldn't read too much into statistics.

Statistics are as statistics do, as the saying goes.
#16
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Lmao two cerebral narcissists clashing
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@RationalMadman
Someone has to be king simp, even on a Debate site!
#18
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Republicans  say that more guns and less gun laws make us safer.

Might be better than less enforcement and more laws. Soros's DA's losing their jerbs left and right. Even in California where the crime rate is oh so low!

#19
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oromagi's point was correct, he did not have the duty to go lookup data.
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@IwantRooseveltagain
Except in Florida, where the key data is not available. That’s one way to respond.

They can also end heat waves by getting rid of thermometers.
Republicans' long history of resistance to and distortion of the collection of gun violence stats is well-documented and a valid critique by almost any standard.
#21
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Florida has more crime than San Francisco. How can this be?
Donald Trump
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#22
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@oromagi
distortion of the collection of gun violence stats
Ya, the CDC is well known for distorting data they collect or obtain from other government sources. (sarcasm)