Ozark Mafia Endgame

Author: Lunatic

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#1
Lunatic
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Mafia wins and third party wins!! (Mikal, Sui_Generis, iLikePie5, greyparrot)

Theme split was "The Byrdes vs everyone else" because in the show the Byrdes (while their intentions are innocent) completely destroy the lives of everyone they encounter in the Ozarks.



Thankyou guys for the activity and it looked like a pretty interesting game. Mharman put in a lot of work, effort, research. May have missed the mark, but it's a learning experience. Been there.


I will adamantly defend the fact that my statement did not "confirm" supa and will happily accept a debate to back this up. Mafia was only salty because of bias. But I would have 100% said the same thing if I made a mod mistake and the scum was getting lynched for "lying about results" when it was really the mods fault. Mods should own up to mistakes, and I would be highly dis-appointed if I played in a game where a mod didn't. Regardless I don't think that would have honestly effected your argument of supa that much. There was behavioral analysis too I hope, otherwise your basically saying the only reason to lynch supa was based on a mod mistake, which is borderline admitting you had no grounds to lynch supa. We both know this isn't the case so basically stop being salty little b1tches, mikal and pie.  ;-) Especially when you guys won as dominantly as you did. Good job to mafia, and GG's to town. Better luck next time townies. 

Quite a few of you were on the right track even early on (I am looking at you badger) but didn't quite have the pull to pull off some of the lynches.

I don't really like doing MVP's because people tend to care more about the results then the process. But I liked the way Mharman pieced things together even if he was wrong sometimes. You can't always be right, but he did his due dilligence and I think investigated things to the best of his ability. And badger had some great gut reads and stuck to them. So town MVP's were probably those two. Mharman was incredibly universally town read, so even if his reads were wrong he did play incredibly town like, so in that he did his job lol. 

Mafia did really well, particularly pie and Mikal. Really good communication and coordination with stuff, Sui made some really good fake claims that seemed to work pretty well. 

Computernerds first time as cop, but yeah obviously claiming detective roy petty dp1 was horrible for him, especially since it basically nullified mharmans role as an advocate for him. Mharmans role was designed as way for the cop to be able to avoid claiming and get away with it because mharman could have been in his back pocket to defend him and confirm him at any time. Also computernerd copped badger after badger already claimed to innocent child... That was painful. Didn't matter because he was roleblocked but yeah..

Only other critique I have is maybe whiteflame should have forfeited his role after he used it to confirm himself. Mafia realized really quickly the value of being able to redirect that. I guess he couldn't have known there was a redirector, but yeah still kind of sucked. It would have sucked anyway though since he targetted pie and pie was scum as well, so I guess it wouldn't have mattered though since sui would have been lynched DP3.

GG's all.

#2
Mikal
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To be fair am not salty in the slightest. All I said was that mod post gave supa inadvertent confirmation either role or town, but town was likely to push pie over supa after that post. Hence why we decided to cheese it and go for joint win
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#3
Lunatic
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@Mikal
but town was likely to push pie over supa after that post.
How do you know? Please substantiate this. 
#4
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@Mharman
Good effort, but very wrong
#5
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@Lunatic
I'm not trying to debate the validity of an opinion lol. Even said I understood why you did it. It was just a weird time / way to post it right after we kept saying that he was scum slipping about the pm. Don't blame you at all for how you did it and as I told you in pms, I don't think there is a fair way to handle that because once a mistake happens in mafia it's very hard to correct. But that is far from me being salty. 
#6
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Next time a survivor pops up, it's a policy lynch. No getting distracted by potential mafia. Period.


#7
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@Mharman
tbh had anyone else been mafia I think gp would have sided with town. We just read each others minds
#8
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@ILikePie5
I got 2 out of 3 in the end. Given my history of being bad at the game, I'll take it, even if it comes with asterisks. I was going to save Mikal for last since he was hunter, and he would be forced to vote himself or die with 1 mafioso remaining coming into what would've been DP5. I wanted Whiteflame -> Sui -> Mikal. But I was wrong on Whiteflame so I never would've made it that far.
#9
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gg, mharman's efforts were commendable. mafia would indeed be revived if games were filled with that sort of investment. 

but ultimately town requires "total packages"… mharman & badger are examples of the two ways town can fail to be complete players. badger was RIGHT but not BELIEVED. mharman was BELIEVED but not RIGHT.

good town play involves both, I think. I'm no mafia theorist but, thinking about it now, I suppose great town play involves successfully avoiding lynches & nk's while bringing about scum death… I suppose this doesn't *necessarily* involve being widely town read or even making accurate, explicit scum reads…

again: GGs. (inactivity was part of my strat dp1&2—dp3 talking was negative utility)

❦
#10
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@Mikal
Maybe. But overall Survivors go with whoever's winning. If we had done better early game, he may have sided with us. Was kinda hoping he would side with town in DP3 just to avenge Badger for the humor of it.
#11
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If Max wasn't inactive, I called this entire game D1. 

mharman & badger are examples of the two ways town can fail to be complete players. badger was RIGHT but not BELIEVED.
I have not played on this site in years. You gotta build cred/influence. 
#12
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This was a fun game really, and I'm happy with the reads I made. I'd definitely have got Pie too if I'd bothered.

Just for one note, that reactance read I made on Pie that was obviously incorrect. Supa gave us a real example of that towntell D2 fos'ing whiteflame for taking my lynch off the table. It really is such a strong and reliable towntell. Pie fluked it, that's all. 
#13
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But honestly, if town is faced with a claimed survivor and still mislynches two townies AND those townies they lynched accurately claimed their power roles before getting lynched, town doesn't deserve to win. Period.

GGs.
#14
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All can say is, I'm giving potential lynch targets more time to defend themselves next game.
#15
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I think whiteflame is a tricky read just because his posts are always so composed. His reads were too good D1 and so giving up too much ground to be mafia though. 
#16
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mharman & badger are examples of the two ways town can fail to be complete players. badger was RIGHT but not BELIEVED.
I also lynched the JOAT just because I wanted to see him flip JOAT lol. Calibration lynch. I'm rusty. 
#17
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@badger

His reads were too good D1 and so giving up too much ground to be mafia though. 
Ooooh I never caught on to that.

Wouldn't have mattered anyways, since if I did I probably would have gone for Supa instead.
#18
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@Lunatic
GG in general to scum. Would've had a hard time reading Mikal in the end.

Only other critique I have is maybe whiteflame should have forfeited his role after he used it to confirm himself. Mafia realized really quickly the value of being able to redirect that. I guess he couldn't have known there was a redirector, but yeah still kind of sucked. It would have sucked anyway though since he targetted pie and pie was scum as well, so I guess it wouldn't have mattered though since sui would have been lynched DP3.
I wrestled with whether to use my role, though I did it for two reasons. One, I had a slight scum read on Pie after how DP2 ended. Two, I didn't think I could rally the vote against him despite that. So, my goal was just to lock off what I thought was a likely scum vote, give us time to get the lynch off on Sui, and then circle back to Pie in the next DP.

Clearly, that didn't work, but I really wasn't expecting a redirect on me. Probably should have been more careful of that.
#19
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@ComputerNerd
As for you, just keep playing. There are worse rookie mistakes one can make. *Glances at WaterPhoenix*
#20
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I was really surprised y’all were even considering Supa lol.

It would’ve been crazy if I got Supa lynched there. The evidence proving him Town was insane. My WIFOM skills were on point tho so that’s good to know
#21
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@Vader
U gonna post signups?
#22
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@ILikePie5
You did well defending yourself, but you didn’t convince me. Still would’ve pushed for your lynch over his, but by that point, I’d said all I could about it.
#23
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@ILikePie5
Wait, was Supa supposed to be ahead of me? I thought Kanye West's Discography Mafia was already played.
#24
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@Vader
@ILikePie5
Oh he put his game on hold mid sign-ups. So he's ahead of me.

Supa, do you want to post your sign ups or do you want to wait and have me post mine?
#25
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@whiteflame
You did well defending yourself, but you didn’t convince me. Still would’ve pushed for your lynch over his, but by that point, I’d said all I could about it.

Ya it was geared towards Mharman mainly. I’d have lynched me in an instant 
#26
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Knew Pie was scum
#27
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@Mharman
Post yours

#28
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As an outsider, I read into the fact that Mikal didn't push hard on the fact that Sui was protected by whiteflame on Day 3, it screamed 'scum' to me. He voted sui and didn't acts shocked or angry about the result being nullified and that whiteflame was that role, he passively mentioned it at most.

Supa was blatantly town, read how he pushed on and voted for Max, he was sure it flipped scum to a level that didn't make sense if he were scum.

Sui was blatant scum but unlynchable by day 3.

Not sure I fully understood the redirect mechanics or that it would be easy to convince anyone if I did, as town there though.
#29
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@Lunatic
Theme split was "The Byrdes vs everyone else" because in the show the Byrdes (while their intentions are innocent) completely destroy the lives of everyone they encounter in the Ozarks.
I knew this the moment that Earth's character was town.

Not sure why others didn't pick up on it.
#30
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The fact that the daughter of the Byrdes was thirdparty was a huge, huge clue that if the theme-split was straightforward, byrdes were scum. In the series, she reluctantly sides with her family against the town. Only their son could be town if they were scum or scum/tp if they were town.