---Star Trek Deep Space Nine (DS9) Mafia: DP1---

Author: bsh1

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Greyparrot
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@Aporia
I'll answer your request later before the day ends Spinko.
Wylted
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@Aporia
Trying to make us think this was his first game. thinking the wagons were all intended to be lynches and the phony enthusiasm of the first post. Seen scum play up their noobishness plenty of times, but they are usually noobs when they do so.
Aporia
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@Wylted
Pretty sure he explained why he faked that.
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@Aporia
I think he said it was to illicit reactions. What I want to know is his premises for thinking it will illicit reactions that are affiliation indicative. Wouldn't anyone regardless of affiliation call him on his bullshit in a similar way? I don't see how the reactions would be useful.

His response to this may help me figure out if this is a well thought out strategy on his part to generate scum tells or if he was actually trying to play up his noobiness like scum tend to do.
Buddamoose
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@Wylted
It’s usuallyindicative of affiliation, unless it’s me. You should also be scumreading warren. I don’t know why he thinks a bunch of people whohave played a lot of games with him, would believe he was a noob

He already came out and admitted it was contrived and that he was doing it as a reaction test. You assume I'm still TR'ing him at post #200 when this was posts roughly 50-75. 

________________

 I might thinkBuddamoose is good to target for reasons not pertaining to experience, 

Then elaborating on them seems rather important? What were those reasons? 

In this postbuddamoose pretends as if he doesn’t realize somebody can have ahigher than normal chance of band wagoning me and still not be amindless ape. 

because "will generally bw" means they'll bw every time. I'm curious how you're concluding im not factoring probability when I specifically used a term that is exclusive to probabilistic statements.

This is ridiculous,besides the obvious reason that we don’t actually know who theopposing team is, it could be us attacking the rookie on our team
And with pressuring anyone based off anything you could be attacking the same team. Things that are applicable to both sides arent differentiators...

, itjust isn’t necessarily true of good strategy. Sometimes you attackthe strong corner because you have the best receiver in the league,and the rookie corner is also guarding a rookie. Or maybe the otherteam is playing Man with one corner but using the zone defense on theother side of the field which is tough to throw against particularlyif your quarterback is a rookie.

"We don't know who the opposing team is" 

Now here's a bunch of counterexamples that require exactly that.

You do understand the purpose of the analogy wasn't the specific position, it was the players being rookies. And it was an observation of probability. The players most likely to belie their affiliation are rookies. Yes, there is a risk that they act scummy and get lynched. But that risk is present when pressuring any player...

Its absolutely true that town wouldn't know whether those rookies would be on their team and might pressure their own team. But that's equally true of pressuring experienced players, so how are you using it as a differentiator in harms/benefit comparison? 

(Your whole section regarding bw'ing during RVS being optimal is true, i understand this. I just don't buy it as a motive because you were still in a position where placing a vote on someone you preferred urself wouldnt have derailed or stalled the DP. 

You misunderstand, like Supa, the root issue with your behavior. Its not just that you bw'd onto Aporia. Its your read on Greyparrot. I don't buy that you bw'd Aporia for the sake of progressing the DP. 

Now, either you think GP's idolization generally results in a bw, therefore him bw'ing isnt suspect and to be expected. Or you don't think his idolization generally results in a bw, so it's suspect and unexpected. 

Given you think it isnt suspect, his idolization reasonably should result in him generally bw'ing you. So not bw'ing Aporia and instead voting a player of your preference would at least fmpov be attempted, than ceded without any attempt at controlling the direction of initial pressure. 

This is not in line with narcissistic behavior(as you proclaimed to be yourself), and most of your other behavior, except this is in line with that. Like

It’s usuallyindicative of affiliation, unless it’s me. 

In response to my sarcasm toward Warren, which you didn't pick up on and thought was serious, despite me calling out percieved contrivance as suspect previous to that. Well done 
Wylted
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Band wagons more than he would others does not mean generally bandwagons. It just means it is in a believable range of probability. I assume in about 20% of similar circumstances GP would bandwagon me without much information. Maybe as much as 35% of the time in similar circumstances. That is well above average without being the general almost default move.
bsh1
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Time Check

About 48.5 hours remain in the DP. Plan accordingly.
Wylted
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@Buddamoose
You do understand the purpose of the analogy wasn't the specific position, it was the players being rookies. And it was an observation of probability. The players most likely to belie their affiliation are rookies. Yes, there is a risk that they act scummy and get lynched. But that risk is present when pressuring any player...

I think you lost to FT in a debate over this where his criticisms are the same as mine. Noob slips are a bad thing. They're easy to read as scum anyway and when the claim doctor or cop at L3 or something it's usually bad. I know the difference between a noob slip and a scum slip but many of you guys will lynch because a noob misread his role or character or something. Even when I am scum I can usually wriggle my way out of a lynch and won't feel pressure even at L2. Noobs are different. They can feel like a few votes are serious pressure and release information they shouldn't.

When you pressure a noob during RVS, it is extremely rare for it to have good results. Pressuring experienced players is a better strategy but still not optimal. What is optimal is pressuring people you generally have a hard time reading so you can pin them down with their soft claims and have a more reliable read near the end game. I honestly don't have a hard time reading you. I think you're scum right now. You aren't even tunneling with as much heart as you normally do.
Wylted
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Or maybe I don't scum read you but unlike warren I know what the hell I'm doing when it comes to reaction tests. I wouldn't count on it though.
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We can't do group PMs here right? So how does the scum PM work?

Are the PMs offsite or something?
Greyparrot
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@Wylted
We can't do group PMs here right? So how does the scum PM work?

Are the PMs offsite or something?

Wylt confirmed town. Thx.
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@Wylted
Wylt, wait for rest of town to catch up.
Aporia
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@Greyparrot
How so lol
Aporia
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Its just funny how easily contrived a question like that could be.
Wylted
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It is an easily contrived question, but I like greyparrot's response. I'll move him to the town pile for the moment
Buddamoose
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@Wylted
Also,  leaving outs for any analysis of your reads to be inapplicable, just looks sus

When you pressure a noob during RVS, it is extremely rare for it to have good results. 

No, it's not extremely rare. The first two games on this site started with noob pressure, and resulted in them ultimately being town read. Acting like pressuring noobs during RVS results in them being scum read and lynched more often than not is disjointed from reality. 

Secondly, pressure or not, noob slips happen. And noob slips can break either way. 

I'm trying to reconcile how were talking about RVS strats, but you are bringing up

They can feel like a few votes are serious pressure and release information they shouldn't. 

Your reasoning against pressuring noobs is honestly majoritively "but noobs are generally bad and dont play well" when that's the point. They don't play well, as mafia or as town.

They're easy to read as scum anyway and when the claim doctor or cop at L3 or something it's usually bad.

Thats the damn point, that's exactly the point. They're easy to read, thus pressuring them will cause other players to generate reads, allowing for substantive analysis of those players, as well as analysis of the player being pressured. 

You are positing it is optimal to not just pressure, but obviously to get claims(soft) from players one has difficulty gauging early on. I'm just curious how pressuring a hard to gauge player that is going to produce null and slight reads D1, is better than pressuring players that will generate strong reads(and thus very substantive in terms of behavioral analysis) from involved players, when what's being discussed is what will progress the game past the RVS stage the quickest, and provide the most substantive analysis from all involved players. 

Nothing precludes you from also pushing after RVS, getting a claim from a player because you find them hard to read. In fact that wouldnt even be an RVS vote anymore, because you are at that point establishing a position(that you have difficulty reading them) that can be examined for consistency later. 

______________

Also, are you really gonna say "I'm not tunneling like I usually do" which is an analysis of my meta, and ignore the numerous times previous i lead ML's on you on DDO because of behavior like this? Like that doesn't give me a reason to maybe not hardcore tunnel you? 

Good to see you still purposefully act scummy. I so have always enjoyed when people do that 😂. 

Greyparrot
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@Aporia
How so what?
Wylted
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@Buddamoose
How are you misunderstanding everything I say? Is this contrived or are you on here high off of crack or something? A noob town slip is worse than a noob scum slip, and no they don't happen just as often because people are generally town more often than they are scum.

I also don't know how people like you exist that always town read me when I am scum and scum read me when I am town. I don't buy your read as legitimate here because I scum read you, but honestly if you are always wrong about me, just do the smart thing and read me opposite of what you feel so you can be right 100% of the time as opposed to wrong 100% of the time.

It's not my job to not look scummy. It's your job to recognize me as unorthodox and stop idiotically believing unorthodox=scummy. I don't act scummy jack ass.

Buddamoose
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@Wylted
It is an easily contrived question, but I like greyparrot's response.

Because? it was shallow analysis. Those kinds of posts are easily contrived. You just puffed yourself up, you really expect the town reaction is going to be, "nope, certainly no way Wylted is clever enough to contrive that. Must have been a town tell." 

My dude, you can't have it both ways here. 

Wylted
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You can challenge me to a debate on noob pressure vs experienced pressure if you want, so long as I am allowed to copy and paste FT's arguments against you or against some opponent he had with the exact same flawed reasoning for thinking noob pressure was better.
Wylted
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@Buddamoose
Because? it was shallow analysis. Those kinds of posts are easily contrived. You just puffed yourself up, you really expect the town reaction is going to be, "nope, certainly no way Wylted is clever enough to contrive that. Must have been a town tell." 
I can easily fake a post like that. Grey Parrot cannot  easily contrive that response. I don't give a shit what your read on me is. You won't lynch me before DP3, and I don't expect myself to be around DP3. I certainly won't be here DP4.

Aporia
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@Wylted
And you harped on Warren's reaction test...
Aporia
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@Greyparrot
How would one acdibe affiliation in any meaningful way to his question?

Wylted
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This might be the debate I was thinking of, but probably not I remember the other side winning

Aporia
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I honestly did not think voting Budda would devolve into 100+ posts debating the validity of pressuring experienced players over newbs. Wish Danielle was playing I woild have likely voted her and shed have been lynched already lol.
Greyparrot
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@Aporia
It's far more likely wylted genuinely did not know how scum pm works for 2 reasons.

1) this is wylted's 1st mafia game on DART

2) It came toward the middle of a bloviating dayphase where a contrived statement would have a minimal effect compared to early in the day where everyone would have immediately noticed it.

Greyparrot
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@Aporia
What questions did you have for me?
Buddamoose
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@Wylted
You remember that I was in a debate about the noob rule that I lost, but it was between pressuring inactives and noobs.

The noon v experienced debate was long before i was even a site member. Lol I forgot about that, remember that it was constantly referenced when these kinds of debates started up in games.

Buddamoose
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@Wylted

Danielle is a way better debater than I am and made the case far better than I ever could 😂
Wylted
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Spinko is the guy that got voted into the hall of fame over me right? I got in the next cycle and I asked like 5 people who I talked to a lot why they voted for him, and they said that they had very little interaction with him and had seen very little of his posts, but they heard users who had been around a while talking about him and assumed he was a big deal. The votes that went against me there was Annie's because she literally messaged me that she had seen zero of his posts and had zero interaction but felt like he should get in over me, and whiteflame who was my first friend on the site and joined the exact same day as me. Whiteflame I think voted for some choice that didn't get in that cycle over me, but really. WTF?

I also think my first week on the site spinko gave me shit for comparing early Irish Americans to slaves. I hope you're scum so I can get revenge for that time you gave me shit 5 years ago, and for getting into the HOF a cycle before me. My life sucks. I needed the HOF.