INFORMATION PLEASE: POST-VAX BREAKTHROUGH CLUSTERS

Author: oromagi
oromagi
Coronavirus
epidemiology
athletes
breakthrough

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#1
oromagi
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At the risk of provoking Wylted's anti-vax boner, I do see a trend developing that does not comport with my understanding of vaccine effectiveness and post-vaccination breakthrough risks.

I'm talking about recent stories like this:

  • Three TEXAS HOUSE DEMOCRATS who TRAVELED to WASHINGTON, D.C., TEST POSITIVE for CORONAVIRUS
    • All three lawmakers, whom the Texas House Democratic Caucus did not identify, are fully vaccinated, which helps protect against severe illness
  • YANKEE's COVID-19 OUTBREAK: AARON JUDGE AMONG six YANKEES to TEST POSITIVE; RED SOX GAME FRIDAY will be PLAYED
    • The rival clubs will play Friday following New York's six COVID-19 positives
  • MAY 18th- 9 VACCINATED YANKEES PLAYERS and STAFF TESTED POSTIVE for COVID— HERE's HOW that HAPPENS
  • POSITIVE COVID-19 TESTS KNOCKED NC STATE BASEBALL out of the CWS. WHAT about VANDERBILT?
None of this refutes the conventional wisdom- that vaccines are not 100% effective; that breakthrough cases in the vaccinated are rare; that vaccinated people get less sick than unvaccinated.  However, we are told that the variability in vaccine immunity is individual- that sometimes some immune systems just don't respond as vigorously as we'd hope.  If that is the primary variable however, then the rarity and randomness of breakthrough cases should prevent clusters of cases, right?

So out of a relatively small sampling of Texas Democrats who flew to Washington- at least 3 out of 65 vaccinated all get sick at once.  A 4.6% breakout rate.  On a 40 man Yankee's roster we've had 15 breakthrough cases since the beginning of May- a 37.5% breakthrough rate.

I suppose we don't have enough information yet, and some totally non virological explanation might yet account for these anecdotes (Everybody on the Yankee's lying about getting vaccinated seems possible tho not likely).  I'm just wondering if these breakthrough clusters might not be challenging our understanding of vaccine effectiveness.   Is there some virologic element I'm not considering?   Is plane travel amplifying exposure?  Are these breakthoughs associated with the Delta variant?


#2
FLRW
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@oromagi
The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an overall efficiency of 90 percent and JJ has 72 percent. So 1 out of 10 people vaccinated can still get Covid with little to no symptoms. As a comparison, the polio vacccine with 4 doses gave 100 percent efficiency.
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#3
oromagi
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@oromagi
The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have an overall efficiency of 90 percent and JJ has 72 percent. So 1 out of 10 people vaccinated can still get Covid with little to no symptoms. As a comparison, the polio vacccine with 4 doses gave 100 percent efficiency.
Yes but those are lowballs to begin with and we are not seeing anything like 10% breakthrough rates....so why the clustering?
#4
Wylted
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@oromagi
At the risk of provoking Wylted's anti-vax boner,
Too late. You gave me one
#5
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@oromagi
look, doctors are saying that even when the vaccinated get covid19, they are less likely to die.

Hospitals are reporting a higher percentage of unvaccinated deaths when they get covid19 than of vaccinated deaths, so it is still worth getting the vaccine. 

Please stop shilling for China. People need to be vaccinated so we can get the economy back on track.
#6
Wylted
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as far as break through is concerned, the more time that passes, the more the virus will mutate, which because of the high amount of people not being vaccinated may continue indefinitely, however we are creating booster shots to the original vaccine that will help us keep up with the viruses mutations.
#7
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@oromagi
proof vaxxed less likely to die from delta variant

#8
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Clustering might mean a more complex variant in some locations
#9
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@oromagi
Well, if we assume that the 6 Yankees were given the Pfizer vaccine and they were infected with the Delta variant, that would be a 37.5% rate of the vaccine not preventing the spread of COVID-19. However, that's fully consistent with the data surrounding Pfizer and the Delta variant (where a 36% rate would be expected) according to the following: https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/07/13/how-well-does-the-pfizer-vaccine-protect-against-the-delta-variant-heres-what-we-know/?sh=1628e2c0ff33 . I will admit, there are sources that think the number isn't 64%, but rather 80%. There's also consistent data that shows AstraZeneca has a breakthrough rate of 30-40% ( https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-covid-vaccine-effectiveness-protection-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-2021-7?op=1 ).

We would need to know more about these specific cases before we could draw conclusions. Such as: what vaccine(s) did they get? How far apart were first and second dose? How long had it been since their second dose? How strictly were these clusters adhering to COVID-19 restrictions between each other? Etc... It is equally as likely that the Yankees are an outlier and that the rate seen by the house democrats in Texas is more reasonable to expect.

After all, herd immunity requires 95% of people to be immune against the virus, which such high breakthrough rates make fairly challenging, but COVID-19 vaccines still have a critical role in lowering the severity of the case significantly.
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#10
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@Nyxified
I only know the last three Yankees were two Moderna and one Pfizer.

Wow, if breakthroughs are really hitting 30-40% I think we may have re-opened prematurely.
#11
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@oromagi
Absolutely. As much as I hate to say it, I would not be in any way surprised if in Canada (where I live) we experienced a 4th wave. At least it makes it more difficult to spread, so I'm just praying a mutation that beats all our vaccines doesn't occur. It's unlikely, though, I'm led to believe.
#12
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@oromagi
None of this refutes the conventional wisdom- that vaccines are not 100% effective; that breakthrough cases in the vaccinated are rare; that vaccinated people get less sick than unvaccinated.  
What I had heard was that they are close to 100% effective at preventing hospitalization and death, not at preventing infection. I would be curious how severe the cases are. They are probably pretty minor infections.  I’m hearing rumblings that some of the new variants are starting to beat the vaccines but I haven’t seen any hard data that supports that at all yet. It’s also possible that the delta variety is more transmissible but less severe. All in all I’m not very worried at this point 
#13
Discipulus_Didicit
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@oromagi
So out of a relatively small sampling of Texas Democrats who flew to Washington- at least 3 out of 65 vaccinated all get sick at once.  A 4.6% breakout rate.

On a 40 man Yankee's roster we've had 15 breakthrough cases since the beginning of May- a 37.5% breakthrough rate.

Less than 100 people is a pretty small sample size to be looking at for statistics such as breakout rate.
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#14
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@thett3
What I had heard was that they are close to 100% effective at preventing hospitalization and death, not at preventing infection. I would be curious how severe the cases are. They are probably pretty minor infections.  I’m hearing rumblings that some of the new variants are starting to beat the vaccines but I haven’t seen any hard data that supports that at all yet. It’s also possible that the delta variety is more transmissible but less severe. All in all I’m not very worried at this point 
Of the stories I cited I don't think anybody has been hospitalized.

A local ER doctor went on the news tonight:

DENVER -- An emergency room doctor based in Denver is sounding the alarm as the COVID-19 delta variant spreads across Colorado.
"I think maybe it's time to start thinking about putting our masks back on, especially indoors where we know that the ventilation is not necessarily all that good," Dr. Comilla Sasson said Sunday.

As of the latest CDPHE data from the last week of June, the delta variant made up nearly 90% of the specimens randomly tested.
"I think the data is changing, and I think that's hard for folks," Dr. Sasson said.
This week, Los Angeles County began requiring masks indoors again, even for vaccinated people, due to rising cases and hospitalizations.
The health district serving Las Vegas now also recommends both vaccinated and unvaccinated people wear masks indoors.

"When a new mutation comes out that's more transmissible, we have to change our approach to keep everyone safe, and I think that's hard for people to sometimes stomach," Dr. Sasson said.
Vaccinated people are included in these requirements or recommendations, she says, because they, too, can get infected, even if the symptoms are mild, and unknowingly spread the virus.
"What we're learning now and as we're starting to see all over the U.S. is that we're having these breakthrough cases, which is basically people who've been vaccinated who have now gotten COVID-19," Dr. Sasson said. "You've got vaccinated people who maybe have mild symptoms starting to realize they have COVID, but they can still transmit COVID to other people."

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#15
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Less than 100 people is a pretty small sample size to be looking at for statistics such as breakout rate.

I agree it is an insufficient sample from which to draw conclusions.  I am inferring from this small sample that we are seeing breakthrough clusters elsewhere that are less newsworthy, concealed perhaps by the noise of unvaccinated cases.
#16
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@oromagi
I understand that, it's just that inferring anything from a sample size you know to be insufficient is going to lead to counterintuitive conclusions especially if you include the confermation bias created by the fact that both your samples are celeberty headlines.

Should I infer from my household of four having zero cases that covid has gone the way of polio?
#17
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@oromagi
A virus doesn't float about looking for unvaccinated targets.
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#18
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A virus doesn't float about looking for unvaccinated targets.
Nor has anybody in this forum suggested such
#19
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@oromagi
So why should there not be post vax breakthrough clusters?


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So why should there not be post vax breakthrough clusters?

#21
Nyxified
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@oromagi
Found this when looking at one of Wylted's ~interesting~ theories. It talks about what exactly herd immunity is. I was wrong (in some ways) when I gave a figure of 95% because the percentage needed for herd immunity (based on the 'R number' for COVID-19) is actually between 50-75%. 

The above, however, uses information that is likely from before the delta variant began to spread (sources are from March, 2021, the same month it had JUST begun to spread in the US [can't confirm since I only took a quick look at the sources, so it's just a guess]). If delta is 50-60% more infectious, meaning it has a reproduction rate/R number of ~3-6, we would need a prevention rate of 67% - 83%. If everyone were to get vaccinated, based on the information of vaccine's effectiveness against Delta, that would be achievable. We just need to get everyone vaccinated before it mutates to get any worse.

17 days later

#22
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@Wylted
People need to be vaccinated so we can get the economy back on track.
What do vaccination rates have as a correlation to economy performance?

It is clear that breakthrough infections are worse than thought, and the concept of herd immunity (which was the original push for max vaccination) now carries no water.

So we are in symptom management now.  (I will leave the lack of symptom treating protocols alone for now).  Those with underlying morbidity conditions can choose to take the EUA vaccine to mitigate the symptoms they may get.

Where is the relation of vaccine adoption to the economy?


#23
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@Slainte
look at the rest of my posts and see if your interpretation of that statement as anything more than sarcasm, makes sense