The 2045 Technological Singularity Prediction.

I'm wondering why Kurzwell is waiting so long? 2045 is 24 years from now., Let's take a tour 24 years ago: 1997.

Well, my Mac was OS 8.

I chatted [no texting] on a cordless telephone

My music was on CD

The cloud was white and fluffy - sometimes looked like the Michelin Man

I was using Netscape because Explorer had not yet discovered itself [MS has always been behind, so I don't expect singularity will be a Windows achievement]

If singularity doesn't happen in 10 years, I may have to start using my Mac System 1 [circa 1984] again. Yes, it still works. My Window pane broke long ago

I am quite skeptical that such an event is possible. 

CPU capacity is not some magic spell that conjures autonomy, desire, the will and compulsion to dominate.  Those are human drives that we frankly have almost no understanding about.  Just because a machine can store data and calculate equations beyond human capacity does not mean that an id and ego and suddenly manifest to plot.  Those are aspects of the human animal no hardware can replicate and for which no non-human animal displays any capacity.   Some disordered human minds desire to dominate the human race and find few fellow humans with which to share their guilty compulsion so they project that compulsion onto imaginary sentiences in order to warrant their guilt and keep it company- angry gods and evil robots. 

There is no such thing as an inanimate object that decides.  If a computer seems uncontrolled it is because a human has programmed (intentionally or not) that machine to appear to be uncontrolled.  If we focus on first governing our darkest compulsions and then on prioritizing an intelligence explosion in our own, underutilized but magnificent brains, I guarantee that we need never fear the basilisk of singularity.

And there is the other side of the debate, with which I tend to agree. We only think we understand the brain and its multifunctions of intelligence, let alone attaching the cloud to it. That will likely result in too many micro-climates for climate change to deal with. Or will singularity actually yield the singular, ideal climate, worldwide?

God, I hope not. A boring place, then.

2045 is perhaps bit of a shot in the dark.....And "2045 Technological Singularity" is a buzz phrase for Sci Fans , a la Clarke and Kubrick

Nonetheless I would suggest that technological dominance is an evolutionary inevitability.

I would further suggest that the transitional interaction between human and alternative intelligence is current and ongoing, and we take it for granted.

Most of us have already handed over a degree of control over to technology....Heads down kids and do as you are told.

It's kids that need to be conditioned, not me...I'm already evolutionarily redundant.

It's taken several million years for human intelligence to develop to it's current level, whereas alternative technological intelligence is only a few decades old. 

So given a bit more time and our dedicated and loyal assistance.

There's a whole universe to dominate, and humans by themselves lack the ability.

And perhaps we sometimes allow our own self importance and fears to cloud the bigger picture.

Though whether or not the future will be masterminded by an organic blob, is something else for Sci Fi fans to consider.

Yes, but it will probably be in a 100 years. The first successful full organism brain simulation was the worm C. elegans. See openworm.org. The entire worm has successfully been modeled in virtual reality including controlling neurons and their active states. The latter is just as important as the simulation. Since a worm has been modeled, it won't be too long before a Republican.

Before a Republican what?

And that would be 2121.

And I'm not sure that nematodes possess a lot of intelligence.....Or much of a brain.

And I think that we, already exceed nematodes in intelligence.

And I also think that the questioner was referring to an intelligence that might exceed us.

And I'm not certain that a virtual worm fits the bill.

Perhaps the technology that creates the virtual worm is nearer the mark.

Or is that what you meant?

Is modeled, and yes, that is what I meant.

OK.

And modelled has two l's.

And your thought processes and resultant grammar are both fascinating.

And what about Democrats?

In the USA it has one L. Whether you're modelling or modeling, you're doing the same thing. The only difference is in the spelling—the one with the single L is preferred in the United States, while the one with two Ls is preferred everywhere else.

Fair enough.

I don't believe a word of this stuff either. Elon Musk is just weird and Stephen Hawking's fearmongering was the death rattle of a cyborg. AI is cool and I plan to make a career of it actually, but yeah I don't see it. 

Super cool and funny post. 

This is one of the coolest lectures I've ever watched on AI, language, the mind, whatever. There are things about the human mind we could build for sure, and even language and just the stuff of thoughts is all such a mechanical thing once you really study it, but all the rest is nonsense talk. It's just mind boggling shit tbh. I'm after hurting my brain thinking about AI and consciousness and singularities, thank you.

I guess the real big threat in AI is military application though. I dunno how that shapes out either. 

I think creating an intelligence explosion through eugenics probably would have been preferable and brought about the singularity sooner, if it was pursued more aggressively when it became popular in elitist circles around the 1920s. 

If done right, we could have had a technological.singularityby the time the 50s or 60s rolled around. At this point though, one is certainly going to occur in our lifetimes, and it makes an biological intelligence explosion less necessary.  

I am so angry with our fathers, grand fathers and great grandfathers who had the opportunity to help create an intelligence explosion sooner and failed to let it happen.

The consequences of abandoning eugenics to create an intelligence explosion, has been unquantifiable and large amounts of death, suffering and destruction.

The singularity, will bring about radical life extension and once we put super AI in charge of politics, it will create an Eden on Earth. 

This is what our ancestors screwed us out of, when they ignored all the things that led to the "10,000 year leap" . Expansion. Of technology has been slowed, due to religious luddites, liberal politicians stifling progress with regulations and other harnesses that slow advancement and a lack of effort by the government to bring about a singularity, because it threatens their hold of the reigns of power.