2020 outcome if the Electoral College votes were awarded proportionally

Long story short, I took the (most recent) popular vote margins taken in each state, and then applied the margins those candidates won to the electoral votes each state actually carries, splitting the votes that could be won in each state among candidates based on how well they actually did rather than the winner-take-all method we currently use........ Here's how the results for the 2020 election came out for any of you who give a shit: 

Alabama = 9 Votes = Trump 62.2% 
6 votes for Trump, 3 votes for Biden 

Alaska = 3 Votes = Trump 53.1%
2 votes for Trump, 1 vote for Biden 

Arizona = 11 Votes = Biden 49.4%
6 votes for Biden, 5 votes for Trump

Arkansas = 6 Votes = Trump 62.4%
4 votes for Trump, 2 votes for Biden 

California = 55 Votes = Biden 63.5% 
35 votes for Biden, 20 votes for Trump

Colorado = 9 Votes = Biden 55.4% 
5 votes for Biden, 4 votes for Trump

Connecticut = 7 Votes = Biden 59.3%
4 votes for Biden, 3 votes for Trump

Delaware = 3 Votes = Biden 58.8%
2 votes for Biden, 1 vote for Trump 

Florida = 29 Votes = Trump 51.2% 
15 votes for Trump, 14 votes for Biden 

Georgia = 16 Votes = Biden 49.5% 
8 votes to Biden, 8 votes to Trump


=====================================================
1-10 SUMMARY COUNT: 
Biden = 80 Electoral Votes 
Trump = 68 Electoral Votes 
=====================================================


Hawaii = 4 Votes = Biden 63.7% 
3 votes for Biden, 1 vote for Trump

Idaho = 4 Votes = Trump 63.9% 
3 votes for Trump, 1 vote for Biden 

Illinois = 20 Votes = Biden 57.6% 
12 votes for Biden, 8 votes for Trump 

Indiana = 11 Votes = Trump 57.1%
6 votes for Trump, 5 votes for Biden 

Iowa = 6 Votes = Trump 53.2%
3 votes for Trump, 3 votes for Biden 

Kansas = 6 Votes = Trump 56.5% 
3 votes for Trump, 3 votes for Biden 

Kentucky = 8 Votes = Trump 62.1% 
5 votes for Trump, 3 votes for Biden 

Louisiana = 8 Votes = Trump 58.5% 
5 votes for Trump, 3 votes for Biden 

Maine = 4 Votes = Biden 53.4% 
2 votes for Biden, 2 votes for Trump

Maryland = 10 Votes = Biden 65.8%
7 votes for Biden, 3 votes for Trump 


=====================================================
11-20 SUMMARY COUNT: 
Biden = 42 Electoral Votes 
Trump = 39 Electoral Votes 
=====================================================


Massachusetts = 11 Votes = Biden 65.9%
7 votes for Biden, 4 votes for Trump 

Michigan = 16 Votes = Biden 50.6% 
8 votes for Biden, 8 votes for Trump 

Minnesota = 10 Votes = Biden 52.6% 
5 votes for Biden, 5 votes for Trump 

Mississippi = 6 Votes = Trump 57.6% 
3.5 votes for Trump, 2.5 votes for Biden 

Missouri = 10 Votes = Trump 56.8% 
6 votes for Trump, 4 votes for Biden 

Montana = 3 Votes = Trump 56.9% 
2 votes for Trump, 1 vote for Biden 

Nebraska = 5 Votes = Trump 58.5% 
3 votes for Trump, 2 votes for Biden 

Nevada = 6 Votes = Biden 50.1%
3 votes for Biden, 3 votes for Trump

New Hampshire = 4 Votes = Biden 52.9% 
2 votes for Biden, 2 votes for Trump 

New Jersey = 14 Votes = Biden 57.3% 
8 votes for Biden, 6 votes for Trump 


=====================================================
21-30 SUMMARY COUNT: 
Biden = 42.5 Electoral Votes 
Trump = 42.5 Electoral Votes 
=====================================================


New Mexico = 5 Votes = Biden 54.3% 
3 votes for Biden, 2 votes for Trump

New York = 29 Votes = Biden 60.3%
18 votes for Biden, 11 votes for Trump

North Carolina = 15 Votes = Trump 50.1%
8 votes for Trump, 7 votes for Biden 

North Dakota = 3 votes = Trump 65.5%
2 votes for Trump, 1 vote for Biden

Ohio = 18 Votes = Trump 53.3%
10 votes for Trump, 8 votes for Biden

Oklahoma = 7 Votes = Trump 65.4%
5 votes for Trump, 2 votes for Biden

Oregon = 7 Votes = Biden 56.9%
4 votes for Biden, 3 votes for Trump

Pennsylvania = 20 Votes = Biden 50.0%
10 votes for Biden, 10 votes for Trump

Rhode Island= 4 Votes = Biden 59.7%
2 votes for Biden, 2 votes for Trump

South Carolina = 9 Votes = Trump 55.1%
5 votes for Trump, 4 votes for Biden


=====================================================
31-40 SUMMARY COUNT: 
Biden = 59 Electoral Votes 
Trump = 58 Electoral Votes 
=====================================================


South Dakota = 3 Votes = Trump 61.8%
2 votes for Trump, 1 vote for Biden 

Tennessee = 11 Votes = Trump 60.7%
7 votes for Trump, 4 votes for Biden

Texas = 38 Votes = Trump 52.1%
20 votes for Trump, 18 votes for Biden 

Utah = 6 Votes = Trump 58.2% 
4 votes for Trump, 2 votes for Biden 

Vermont = 3 Votes = Biden 66.4%
2 votes for Biden, 1 vote for Trump

Virginia = 13 Votes = Biden 54.4%
7 votes for Biden, 6 votes for Trump

Washington = 12 Votes = Biden 58.4% 
7 votes for Biden, 5 votes for Trump

West Virginia = 5 Votes = Trump 68.6%
3.5 votes for Trump, 1.5 votes for Biden 

Wisconsin = 10 Votes = Biden 49.6%
5 votes for Biden, 5 votes for Trump

Wyoming = 3 Votes = Trump 70.4%
2 votes for Trump, 1 vote for Biden

Washington DC = 3 Votes = Biden 93%
3 votes for Biden, 0 votes for Biden 


=====================================================
41-51 SUMMARY COUNT: 
Biden = 51.5 Electoral Votes 
Trump = 55.5 Electoral Votes 
=====================================================


Biden = 80 Electoral Votes 
Trump = 68 Electoral Votes 

Biden = 42 Electoral Votes 
Trump = 39 Electoral Votes 

Biden = 42.5 Electoral Votes 
Trump = 42.5 Electoral Votes 

Biden = 59 Electoral Votes 
Trump = 58 Electoral Votes 

Biden = 51.5 Electoral Votes 
Trump = 53.5 Electoral Votes 

FINAL TALLY

BIDEN  =  275
TRUMP  =  263

Total = 538

TL;DR version: Biden would have still won the electoral college vote by about the size of Washington State had electoral votes been split based on the actual popular vote among the states themselves, rather then winner-take-all. 


Special Notes

#1 = THE MISSISSIPPI RULE......... If both candidates get a proportion of the vote in a state that leaves 1 electoral vote left over, the remaining electoral vote will be split in half among the candidates who are almost the same margin (0.05) away from the halfway point to win the remaining vote. 

Proportional Allocation makes Mississippi an incredibly interesting state. Because it has 6 votes, a candidate would need to win a massive 58.4% or more of the vote in order to outright win 4 of the electoral votes the state carries while the other candidate is left with two..... This time around, Trump got 57.6%, which is just short of the margin to win 4 outright (it gets him to 3.456 which rounds down to 3), but what is curious is that Biden only got 41.1% in the state, which would put him at 2.466 electoral votes and round him down to 2, leaving 1 electoral vote up for grabs.  

Biden’s 0.466 is closer to the 50% margin to win the remaining electoral vote than Trumps 0.456, but giving Biden the remaining vote would be the equivalent of making the result 50/50 when the total results for the state was far from a split decision. At the same time, giving the 1 vote to Trump would be mathematically irresponsible since Biden was technically closer to winning the remaining electoral vote than Trump by a margin of 0.010.... For the sake of fairness, I split that last remaining vote in half and awarded one half to each candidate, since that what would have been done if the state had more electoral votes to work with. This problem is not an issue with larger states since the margins needed to leave an electoral vote up for grabs is incredibly small.... Indiana for example which is nearly twice as big almost had a similar issue with 11 votes, where Biden's 41.0% margin brings him to 4.51 electoral votes, barely enough to round up to 5 while Trumps 57.1% margin puts him pretty close to 6 electoral votes (6.28). 

#2 = This rule also applied to West Virginia. Of the 5 Electoral Votes in the state, Trump won 68.6% of the vote which brings him to 3.43 electoral votes. However, Biden only got 29.7%, which brings him to 1.485 electoral votes. Because both candidates are at least 40% of the way to the next vote and are within a 0.05 decimal margin, the remaining 1 vote was split between the two candidates just like the first instance where such a split happened in Mississippi. 

#3 = This rule almost kicked in for Utah as well. Utah has 6 votes, and Biden only got 37.7% of the vote which would put him at 2.26 electoral votes while Trump’s 58.2% puts him within spitting distance of 4 electoral votes (3.492)….. Had Biden done better and got some of the 4.0% 3rd party votes, he could have pulled close enough to 2.50 so cause the final electoral vote to be split between both candidates, but Biden missed the mark so it went to Trump.  

#4 Washington DC has 3 electoral votes….. I completely fucking forgot that they get electoral votes, and it drove me completely insane when the total tally for all this data kept stopping at 535 instead of 538. I finally figured it out when I wondered if there was some small ass state that has 3 electoral votes I somehow missed in the NE United States, and Washington DC showed up in the results when I started looking around. 

According to G. Elliot Morris, if we ran every election since 1980 using proportional electoral vote distribution, all the races would be perceived as much closer but the only outcome that would have flipped would be Trump/Clinton 2016

If you also assign proportional electoral votes to third party candidates, then only Reagan '84 and Obama '08 win 270 outright, meaning Congress would have likely flipped Carter '80, Dukakis '88, Dole '98, Kerry '04, Romney '12, 

Not sure about Trump '20.  Would proportional third party allocation prevent 270?

Thats what the fuckton of numbers in the original post are there for.... To keep things brief, no third party campaign anywhere did enough to win even a single electoral vote in any state, so proportional allocation would not have kept us from getting to 270 due to third party spoilers. 

The best 3rd party result I could find for 2020 was a 2.6% share of the vote by Libertarians in North Dakota which is the electoral equivalent of a quail queef, and even last election in 2016 the only point of success not belonging to the two major parties was when Independent candidate Evan McMullin won 20% of the vote in Utah. Under proportional allocation, the only real threat to the two parties would have to come in the form of some ultra independent billionaire trying to buy his way into the election such as Ross Perot, or Michael Bloomberg but actually with success this time. 

The problem with the proportional representation you are using is that you are rounding off to the nearest electoral vote. This method of awarding electoral votes suffers the same problem as winner-take-all, but to a lesser degree, in that a very small number of popular votes (e.g. 10 votes) can shift a whole vote in the electoral college. (Under the current system a small number of votes can shift an entire state's slate of electors).  This problem may be eliminated by making a state's voting power infinitely divisible. This is what I see for 2016:

TBH if you consider that so many of the Libertarian and McMullin voters are conservative, I do think that Trump was arguably probably more representative of the 2016 voters than Clinton despite the fact that Clinton would have more weighted proportional EV than Trump, even considering the liberal Libertarians and Stein voters.

2020:

Might be off by a few but roughly right I think

Boo! Hiss! Death to proportional voting!

How do you think the actual results would change?

I feel like more Republicans would vote in California, more Democrats would vote in Texas, etc.

In your opinion, would they stay essentially the same, or since many large electoral vote states are Democrat, it would help by empowering Republicans whose votes are normally cancelled out?

The value I see in this is not that the result would change from what it normally would be, the value from this comes to me from the fact that presidential candidates would have to pay attention to more states in order to be elected rather than just the usual batch of 6-7 swing states that are arguably the only ones that matter. 

Previous swing states like Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Iowa can now be considered 'safe' territory for the parties that won them, while the number of states that are more in the air have increased by just 2, Arizona and Georgia. By the time Texas becomes a swing state, some other previous swing states will likely have drifted further to the right or left enough to make them unimportant in terms of candidate campaigning strategy. With this system though, states that havent mattered in ages, if ever, can suddenly become opportunities for presidential candidates to make campaign stops in to make their pitch, which could alter the policies and agenda's they have for their platform, if not the entire outcome. 

Take Oklahoma for example. An entirely forgettable state that Biden lost 65.4% to 32.5% (2.1% left over).... Under this system, if Biden considered visiting the state to try to get at least 36% of the vote, he could walk away getting 3 electoral votes in the state instead of just 2 and take down Trump's total from 5 to 4. Trump would then have to consider visiting the state in order to defend their ground since the GOP needs 64.3% of the vote to hold on to 5 electoral votes, which they only barely got this time around...... This makes Oklahoma important, as well as other states, and gets attention from both major parties which I think is a positive change for American politics. 

The same goes the other way around too. For New York which carries 29 electoral votes and hasnt mattered in ages since its solid Dem territory now, Trump's 37.75% of the vote nets him 11 electoral votes and hands Biden the other 18.... If Trump manages to get at least 40% of the vote in the state, which is not impossible since thats less than 3% off from where he ended up this time, then he has enough to win 12 electoral votes and knock Biden down to 17. So now Biden has to consider paying attention to New York affairs to try to hold on to the electoral votes he can get from that state, which puts NY on the map in terms of importance and consideration. 

If you make electoral votes infinitely divisible then that makes the totals more susceptible to voter suppression, more susceptible to vote fraud, and increase demands for full recounts since any vote that is compromised would have a direct effect on the final total.... A losing candidate could demand nation-wide recounts if he loses by a slim enough margin in an infinitely-divisible system while a system that rounds to the nearest whole number or half-whole number at least shields a majority of states from having their legitimacy questioned. 

If Biden wins 33% of Mississippi and Trump wins 67%, meaning Biden gets 1 vote and Trump gets 2, then any calls for a recount at the end of a close finish once all states are counted wont involve Mississippi since the margins clearly suggest that the population of the state voted 2-to-1 in favor of Trump. Under an infinitely-divisible system though, whether Biden wins 33% or 34% can suddenly become an issue if the final national vote is close enough, and demanding a recount on that kind of margin is simply ludicrous. 

Rounding to the nearest whole number/half whole number makes at least some states secure in terms of reporting outcomes so that any fuckery that does happen nationally can focus their attention to select states rather than be inflicted on every state that overwhelmingly voted one way or another. 

If anything it looks like the final results would just be a hell of a lot closer than how it looks usually, which to me is important because the electoral college makes some elections look like landslides when they fucking shouldnt. 

Lets compare 2008 to 2020. 

In 2008 = Obama got 52.9% of the entire national vote 

In 2020 = Biden got 51.3% of the entire national vote

In 2008 = Obama won 365 electoral votes, beating McCain's 173 and looking like a landslide victory

In 2020 = Biden won 306 electoral votes, beating Trump's 232 in what turned out to be a much closer race than many people expected

In what reasonable world is a 1.5% margin the difference between 'landslide victory' and 'fucking hell this is a close one'? if Biden is considered barely better than Trump by American voters, than Obama should be considered barely better than John McCain by the same reasoning. Yet they arent, and thats kind of problematic 

Once dominion software is in charge of vote counts in every state, Democrats will finally stop "losing" elections.

Those are good impacts but I don’t see how the rounding helps with that issue. Perhaps in most cases these factors wouldn’t make a difference in the rounded numbers but when they do make a difference the difference will be much larger than it otherwise would be. The average impact would be the same over time assuming a constant level if shenanigans.

interesting idea and thread

it also shows that results are closer than what is thought of a blue or red state, trump gets 4 of MA votes