MCU Tools Mafia - DP1

Author: Speedrace

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Lunatic
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@Elminster
That entire analysis is null 

why would you take so much effort into looking at who is what claims when the mod already said there is no theme split. There is no reason for scum to lie. So why right 3 paragraphs of total fluf

I dis-agree that it is total fluff btw. Just because there isn't a theme split doesn't mean analyzing which characters are more likely to be in the game or not doesn't have potential value. I wouldn't lead a lynch over it or anything, but it is not completely useless to do character analysis.
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@Elminster
Ok, then how do we proceed?
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@WaterPhoenix
I can get behind water, though for kind of different reasons. His playstyle so far is reminiscent of stormlight. I say this with nothing but love, but waterphoenix is one of the worst mafia players I have ever seen. I feel like if he was town he would be here trying to defend himself at least. In stormlight archives he put minimal effort to none in defending himself, basically went full panic mode. Wouldn't respond to posts and kept saying stuff like "oh crap now what do I do" when his name was mentioned. I don't see water as handling himself well under pressure, and nothing he has said so far seems like a valid defense. Town water in naruto for example was a bit easier to tell apart.

unvote, vtl waterphoenix
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@Elminster
I was about to ask you how you would proceed too lol.

One thing that is annoying is when someone pops in the middle of a day phase to say how useless everyone else has been while not actively trying to push activity themselves. 
Elminster
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@drafterman
I would rather go croc but I'm okay with water as well. I don't like how fast people are jumping on water. It makes me think mafia is on the wagon. I entirely agree with your thoughts on why you are voting him. I'm just thinking its more likely to be croc for the same reasons because of his timing on when he claimed (after he saw the bit about water)

I think we need to pick one and force a rc  , if everyone is insisting on water i'm okay with that. He would be the next pick after croc 

then wf


I really don't like the fluff talk from wf
Elminster
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@Lunatic
Not saying it's useless, I just don't care to read a back and forth between you and drafter about mafia theory when you both already have said multiple times you disagree on everything. Doesn't mean that its pointless, just no reason for me to go over block texts to hear something that can be finished in a fewsentences


you both disagree on why its useful to popcorn roles in a non theme split game. You for locking people into justifications, and him disagreeing because  you can squeeze those justifications into roles. 
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Tenative town pool based on claims/mod confirmation:

supa, grey, whiteflame, warren, and pie.

Speedrace
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Vote Count

Elminster - WaterPhoenix (1/6)
Lunatic - Greyparrot (1/6)
Crocodile - Elminster, SupaDudz (2/6)
WaterPhoenix - drafterman, whiteflame, ILikePie5, Lunatic (4/6)
ILikePie5 - Danielle, warren42 (2/6)
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@WaterPhoenix
You are at l-2 you might want to think about claiming at this point or defending yourself at the very least.
Elminster
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unvote 

vtl whiteflame

After thinking about this I would much rather go in this direction. The more I read that long post the more it bothers me especially after we have established than analyzing theme ( as far who is in the game ) is pretty pointless. There is no way to decipher who is scum based on theme split and he put way to much effort into that post.  The best we get out of this is possible ways to lock people into role justifications.  That entire post was about who is in the game, why and why certain ones are missing. It reads as total fluff and that really bothers me
Lunatic
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The whiteflame vote seems silly to me.
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@Speedrace
Thanos Copter
How could I forget :o
Seems sus to me.
Speedrace
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Vote Count

Elminster - WaterPhoenix (1/6)
Lunatic - Greyparrot (1/6)
Crocodile - Elminster, SupaDudz (2/6)
WaterPhoenix - drafterman, whiteflame, ILikePie5, Lunatic (4/6)
ILikePie5 - Danielle, warren42 (2/6)
whiteflame - Elminster (1/6)

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@Elminster
None of my analysis had anything to do with a theme split. Not really sure why you’re so opposed to my analysis when it’s based on the likelihood of certain characters existing in this game and the timing of certain claims.
Elminster
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@Lunatic
When the mod says there is no theme split and there are posts literally dedicated to looking at theme split, that seems silly to me. Well seems fluff to me. Doesn't do much but lead town down a path that you get nothing from walking and causes more confusion about something that is not even worth looking into 
Elminster
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@whiteflame
Characters existing in this game implies a reason as to why they need exist. That is walking the path of theme split. 
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@Elminster
That makes no sense to me. I’m not implying a theme split or “walking the path of” one. I’m examining the likelihood that certain roles would appear in the game. I care a whole lot less about what was excluded (except for the Thanos Copter, major oversight) than I do about some of the strange choices that were included. The MCU is huge and has lots of famous tools and weapons. I can’t help but note that many of the items included here fall outside of that set of items. Why is it sus for me to point that out?
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@Elminster
When the mod says there is no theme split and there are posts literally dedicated to looking at theme split, that seems silly to me. Well seems fluff to me. Doesn't do much but lead town down a path that you get nothing from walking and causes more confusion about something that is not even worth looking into 
He is pointing to which characters are more or less likely to be in the game, nothing anywhere mentions theme split.

Characters existing in this game implies a reason as to why they need exist.

No...?

That is walking the path of theme split
No it isn't.... Why even bother claiming then at all for the popcorn earlier? If there is relevance between character and role, there is relevance in weighing whether certain characters do or don't exist in the game. 
Vader
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@Elminster
I'm perfectly OK with Water or Croc
Elminster
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@whiteflame
Whelp, while we've gotten some behavioral analysis so far, no one's done any character analysis (beyond pointing out the lack of Mjolnir, which I'll address), so I'll give my two cents about the character list.
In the opening to this you literally say we are going to look at character analysis when there is nothing to be gained from this. Other than why certain characters, may be certain roles or may exist in the game. But there is no reason to even go down this path since there is no split. 

Just to start, all of these could be actual claims, since none of them give any indication of alignment and any number of roles could have been applied to even some of the simpler ones. I know I was surprised by my role with the Infinity Gauntlet. Still, I do think this narrows down the list of suspects somewhat.
In the same sentence you said all these claims could be real claim since its not ai and then go on to say it narrows down the list of suspects after saying its not ai

I read GP as town. He claimed a character that was almost certain to be in this game, so he would have invited a challenge if he was lying, and his role is a good fit. Needless to say, Supa is town. Wouldn't have expected to see the Gjallerhorn here (guessing Speed is a Destiny fan and liked the crossover), but he has no reason to lie about it unless he was trying to cover up for another character to challenge a claim, which it's apparent he wasn't. The Stormbreaker claim from Elm makes him a slight town read for me as well, since either that and/or Mjolnir was nearly certain to be in this thing. By the by, since Stormbreaker is here, I wouldn't be surprised if Mjolnir is not. One major Thor weapon is enough.
You say hes a character that is certainly in the game (again implying that scum have a reason to lie). This bothers me quite a bit.  And then you link my role to town because you keep thinking that claims are ai based on some split

The rest of these range from null to slightly sus. Gungnir, Ronan's Hammer, Falcon's Wings and Cap's Shield fall into the former category. Gungnir because I can't tell how likely it would be to appear in this (it's a borderline choice for a character because it does appear in the movies and is in the hands of an important side character, but doesn't play a big role there), and Ronan's Hammer because it had such a short-lived role and wasn't particularly important. while the latter two would have had me leaning slightly town on both Danielle and warren if they had claimed early. The fact that they claimed this late means that they knew these choices were available to them, so they could easily be fake claims.
Why would they fake claim, why why why lolol. This is all fluff


The rest are slightly sus to me, largely because they're so niche. Nick Fury's Pager is the one I buy the most of these, just because it's such a strange choice that I don't think Pie would claim it in an effort to give himself cover, but I'm still iffy about it. I'm similarly iffy on the Kimoyo Beads, but I'm slightly more sus of Water because it sounds like something that he and his partner could have come up with as a weird, niche choice. As for Redwing, it's something that appeared in the movies, but it's such a little known inclusion. It screams "safe claim" to me. So, right now, I'd say that Water and Draft seem the most sus to me, with the former showing more behavioral suspicion based on what I've been reading. However, I don't think they're on a team, so I believe at least one of these calls is wrong. Still, my vote stands for now.
reeeeeeeeee

Elminster
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@Lunatic
Because you were going to hard tunnel me if I didn't and I dont want to start a theory debate about this but i'm fully on the drafter side of how stupid this is lol
Elminster
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@Lunatic
Instead of engaging in a reason as to why I don't agree with it, it's easier to go along with it instead of refusing. If I said no , I was about to get hammered by like 15 pages of block quotes. 

It's not harmful, just not useful 

much for all the reasons drafter has said 
Vader
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Despite me disagreeing with the whole meta of popcorning as I think it's baseless with more negative to it, I think their compliancy yet hesitation leads me to believe that they are scum

VTL Water

I also have an FoS on Mikal. He definitely seems more lax than pushy IMO than usual, diverting from his normal play of aggressive pushing of something. But it's a play deviation and isn't detrimental to town so I don't have a slight scum, but an FoS

Drafter is still a gut town read and I can't shake it for some reason and it isn't good
Elminster
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@Lunatic
I also think the not harmful part ties into the fact the dp was largely dead and you were wanting to start getting people active. So I don't read it as scummy, asking people to do it. Just trying to kickstart the dp
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@Elminster
Because you were going to hard tunnel me if I didn't and I dont want to start a theory debate about this but i'm fully on the drafter side of how stupid this is lol
I am actually more interested in the the bit about you thinking I was going to "hard tunnel" you. Why did you think that? Did you not pick up that early interaction was a joke? If you thought that was serious maybe it was because your scum and paranoid lol. I guess a joking back and forth turned into a reaction test eh?!


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@Elminster
Your analysis of my post is, sincerely, baffling. I never implied a split. And yes, people do have reason to lie about their claim, particularly if they think they stand to gain more by providing less information. A character claim may not always obviously link to a given role, but the point stands that the main reason that we even had all these partial claims is to expose liars down the road when people do full claim. Why are you anticipating that no one would try and false claim their character to better fit a false claim role? 
Vader
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Also there delay makes me think that scum team knows the theme and wants to fake claim so they don't get caught, and were taken off-guard, which is why I think Water and Croc are likely scum. This strategy is baseless and has no effect for experienced players like Mikal, Danielle, and lunatic, would could think of fake claims easier than the others
Elminster
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@Lunatic
No I actually expected you to tunnel me and I didn't want to deal with reading pages of text lol

Not because I was paranoid, I just remember the exchange from the other game we were in and after like 3 back and forths of the debate, I was willing to lynch myself. That is actually bad for town lol
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@whiteflame
Do you think there are characters that imply a certain role?
Do you think any of those characters imply an affiliation ?

The wording of that post was literally we can look at characters and narrow down a scum list. Implying that people who claimed certain characters ping you as town. That was you literal wording for why you town read me lol
Elminster
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@whiteflame
The Stormbreaker claim from Elm makes him a slight town read for me as well, since either that and/or Mjolnir was nearly certain to be in this thing. By the by, since Stormbreaker is here, I wouldn't be surprised if Mjolnir is not. One major Thor weapon is enough.
This is literally you saying you town read me off my character lol