Town is winning a lot lately

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#1

Lunatic

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Lunatic

11.15.2020 05:26PM

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11.15.2020 05:26PM

Pulled the last ten games and 3 months of data (exluding mharmans and bears game) and this is what I found:

Riddle Mafia- Town win

Avatar Mafia- Town win

uWu Mafia- Town win

Technology mafia- Town win

Arrowverse mafia- Mafia win

BAMF mafia- Mafia win

Civil war generals- Town win

Naruto mafia- Town win

Bastard states- Town win

Stormlight Archive- Town win

8/10 of the last games are town wins. My question is: What's up with this? I remember multiple complaints on Debate.org all the time how town rarely won, mafia tended to go on huge win streaks. Looking at the general balance I'd say most of these games were pretty fair and balanced, with maybe slight variables, or arguments that some are swingy, but in general I don't think those aspects would effect mafia skill all that much. I have my own theories and ideas for what's going on, but I am genuinely curious what some of your thoughts are on this trend.

#2

Speedrace

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Speedrace

11.15.2020 05:34PM

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11.15.2020 05:34PM

Mafia kept quitting, but a lot of those gave mafia large disadvantages like in Avatar mafia

#3

Speedrace

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Speedrace

11.15.2020 05:40PM

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@Vader

When you have the only mafia win in the last ten games B)

#4

Vader

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Vader

11.15.2020 05:41PM

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@Speedrace

I’m not good at being mafia lmao.

#5

Vader

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Vader

11.15.2020 05:42PM

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@Speedrace

I’d argue Avatar was definitely a swingy game, but Lunatic blatantly worked for town versus your team so that’s why you had a disad

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#6

Lunatic

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Lunatic

11.15.2020 05:45PM

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11.15.2020 05:45PM

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@Speedrace

Mafia kept quitting, but a lot of those gave mafia large disadvantages like in Avatar mafia

Even the two mafia wins though were very close. BAMF, supa survived by a miracle despite doc not making sense with a flipped jailkeeper, and me and sir won arrowverse on a lucky gambit that paid off, but could have easily backfired and killed both of us had intelligence not quick hammered.

#7

Speedrace

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Speedrace

11.15.2020 05:53PM

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@Lunatic

Even the two mafia wins though were very close. BAMF, supa survived by a miracle despite doc not making sense with a flipped jailkeeper, and me and sir won arrowverse on a lucky gambit that paid off, but could have easily backfired and killed both of us had intelligence not quick hammered.

Every mafia win is close lol

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#8

Lunatic

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Lunatic

11.15.2020 06:11PM

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11.15.2020 06:11PM

From the DDO archives list:

Town won 103 games of 283.

Towns total win percentage was 36.4%.

From the Dart archiveslist:

Town won 17 games of 37 (minus concept games that aren't actual mafia)

Towns total win percentage is 45.95%

Now obviously this data doesn't mean much considering the length of DDO vs DART, but I am interested in streaks and trends and the reasons behind them

#9

SirAnonymous

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11.15.2020 06:14PM

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@Lunatic

It's probably because most scumteams lack the sheer awesomeness that we had.

#10

Speedrace

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Speedrace

11.15.2020 06:14PM

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11.15.2020 06:14PM

Funny that everyone complains about lazy town here

#11

Speedrace

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Speedrace

11.15.2020 06:14PM

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@SirAnonymous

It's probably because most scumteams lack the sheer awesomeness that we had.

+1

#12

warren42

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warren42

11.15.2020 06:22PM

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11.15.2020 06:22PM

Town is usually OP because everyone on this site hates VTs so they give way too many roles and then mafia is up against a town with 6 PRs and 3 other people have passive roles

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#13

Lunatic

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Lunatic

11.15.2020 06:29PM

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11.15.2020 06:29PM

To prove my point on how bad some of these scum win trends on DDO were

DDO's had some insane scum streaks usually maxing out at ten, but not getting a whole lot better in between. The worst period was this:

Epic DDO, Fire and Ice, American politics, School Districts, Battlestar Galactica, HvV, Harry Potter, Christmas Mafia, Philosopher Mafia, Steampunk mafia

After steam punk there was only 2 town wins between that and the next 10 games. After the Rosario Town win, there was ONLY 1 Town win between that and the next 10 scum wins.

Out of 30 games, town only won 4 games lol. This was the the worst trend for town victories on DDO history.

For a while it evened out a bit.

Mafia went on a another big streak between civilization mafia, and movie characters Mafia, with town only winning 3 games out of 15.

So yeah DDO was known for some pretty big scum streaks. I find it very interesting and rare for people from Dart/DDO to see such a big town win streak. This is kind of record breaking in context to how this is almost never seen, which is why I am so curious and think this is fascinating.

#14

Speedrace

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Speedrace

11.15.2020 06:30PM

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@warren42

Good point

#15

Speedrace

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Speedrace

11.15.2020 06:30PM

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11.15.2020 06:30PM

I may have polluted with my rolemadness only games ;-;

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#16

Lunatic

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Lunatic

11.15.2020 06:30PM

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@warren42

Town is usually OP because everyone on this site hates VTs so they give way too many roles and then mafia is up against a town with 6 PRs and 3 other people have passive roles

This was also a problem with DDO though. It was rare to see more than one vanila townie per game. I remember a time where if there was 2 Vanillas it was considered a counter claim and one of them would almost always get lynched lol.

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#17

Lunatic

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Lunatic

11.15.2020 06:33PM

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@Speedrace

Funny that everyone complains about lazy town here

My theory is that the majority of the players are lazy, which hurts mafia almost more than town in most cases since the chance that one of the few non-lazies will become scum seems much lower. While their are plenty of non lazy's on the site, it's rare to get all of them in the same game. We usually end up with like 2-3 sometimes 4 non lazies per game.

#18

warren42

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warren42

11.15.2020 06:42PM

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@Lunatic

I don't remember that but you played longer than I did

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#19

Lunatic

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Lunatic

11.15.2020 06:45PM

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@warren42

I don't remember that but you played longer than I did

Pretty sure you joined in the golden age of DDO where players were maturing and games were a lot less one sided. We started fixing a lot of those silly trends. We also just had some pretty decent players around when you joined.