Comprehensive list of the polls that are the most + least fucked

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#1

Imabench

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Imabench

11.12.2020 05:22PM

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11.12.2020 05:22PM

Okay I know that polls have really shit the bed TWICE in a row now on elections, whether that's some sort of effect Trump has on politics or if there is systematic flaws in how polls conduct polling is another conversation entirely. What we can do with the shit polls that came out though is figure out which ones hit the closest, which ones are sorta reliable, and which polls if printed on toilet paper would still be less valuable then the shit you would clean them with.

Im list polling conducted in specific swing states and then comparing the poll results to the actual vote results to indicate which polls hit and which ones miss. I tried to pick the ones that happened within the final two weeks of the election

MICHIGAN https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html#polls

Final Result: Biden by 2.7

CNN had Biden at +12.0 (Missed by 9.3)

Fox News had Biden at +12.0 (Missed by 9.3)

The Hill had Biden at +11.0 (Missed by 8.3)

Reuters had Biden at +10.0 (Missed by 7.3)

CNBC had Biden at +7.0 (Missed by 6.3)

ABC had Biden at +7.0 (Missed by 6.3)

Emerson had Biden at +7.0 (Missed by 6.3)

New York Times had Biden at at +8.0 (Missed by 5.3)

Trafalgar had Trump at +2.0 (Missed by 4.7)

Insider Advantage had Biden at +2.0 (Missed by 0.7)

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WISCONSIN https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html#polls

Final Result: Biden by +0.7

ABC had Biden at +17.0 (Missed by a fucking hilarious 16.3)

New York times had Biden at +11.0 (Missed by 10.3)

Reuters had Biden at +10.0 (Missed by 9.3)

CNBC had Biden at +8.0 (Missed by 7.3)

Emerson had Biden at +8.0 (Missed by 7.3)

CNN had Biden at +8.0 (Missed by 7.3)

Fox News had Biden at +5 (Missed by 4.3)

Susquehanna had Biden at +3.0 (Missed by 2.3)

Trafalgar had Biden at +1 (Missed by 0.3)

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PENNSYLVANIA https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html#polls

Final Result: Biden by 0.8

CNN had Biden at +10.0 (Missed by 9.2)

USA Today had Biden at +7.0 (Missed by 6.2)

Rasmussen had Biden at +3.0 (Missed by 2.2)

Monmouth had Biden at +7.0 (Missed by 6.2)

ABC had Biden at +7.0 (Missed by 6.2)

Quinnipiac had Biden at +7.0 (Missed by 6.2)

New York Times had Biden at +6.0 (Missed by 5.2)

Reuters had Biden at +5.0 (Missed by 4.2)

Fox News had Biden at +5.0 (Missed by 4.2)

NBC had Biden at +5 (Missed by 4.2)

The Hill had Biden at +5.0 (Missed by 4.2)

CNBC had Biden at +4.0 (Missed by 3.2)

Emerson had Biden at +4.0 (Missed by 3.2)

Trafalgar had Trump at +2 (Missed by 2.8)

InsiderAdvantage had Trump at +2.0 (Missed by 2.8)

Susquehanna had Trump at +1.0 (Missed by 1.8)

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GEORGIA https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_biden-6974.html#polls

Final Result: Biden by +0.3

Trafalgar had Trump at +5.0 (Missed by 5.3)

Monmouth had Biden at +4.0 (Missed by 3.7)

InsiderAdvantage had Trump at +2.0 (Missed by 2.3)

PPP had Biden at +2.0 (Missed by 1.7)

Emerson had Trump at +1.0 (Missed by 1.3)

CBS News had it at a tie (Missed by 0.3)

New York Times had it at a tie (Missed by 0.3)

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ARIZONA https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_biden-6807.html#polls

Final Result: Biden by 0.9

New York Times had Biden at +6.0 (Missed by 5.1)
Rasmussen had Trump at +4.0 (Missed by 4.9)

Trafalgar had Trump at +3.0 (Missed by 3.9)

CNN had Biden at +4.0 (Missed by 3.1)

CNBC had Biden at +3.0 (Missed by 2.1)

Susquehanna had Trump at +1.0 (Missed by 1.9)

Reuters had Biden at +2.0 (Missed by 1.1)

Emerson had Biden at +2.0 (Missed by 1.1)

NBC had it at a tie (Missed by 0.9)

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OHIO https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_biden-6765.html#polls

Final Result: Trump by 8.2

Quinnipiac had Biden at +4.0 (Missed by 12.2)

Emerson had Biden at +1.0 (Missed by 9.2)

Fox News had Trump at +3.0 (Missed by 5.2)

Rasmussen had Trump at +4.0 (Missed by 4.2)

Trafalgar had Trump at +5.0 (Missed by 3.2)

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IOWA https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_biden-6787.html#polls

Final Result: Trump by 8.2

New York Times had Biden at +3.0 (Missed by 11.2)

Monmouth had Biden at +3.0 (Missed by 11.2)

PPP had Biden at +1.0 (Missed by 9.2)

Emerson had Trump at +1.0 (Missed by 7.2)

Quinnipiac had Trump at +1.0 (Missed by 7.2)

InsiderAdvantage had Trump at +2.0 (Missed by 6.2)

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FLORIDA https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Final Result: Trump at +3.4

Emerson had Biden at +6.0 (Missed by 9.4)

Monmouth had Biden at +6.0 (Missed by 9.4)

NBC News had Biden at +4.0 (Missed by 7.4)

Reuters had Biden at +4.0 (Missed by 7.4)

The Hill had Biden at +3.0 (Missed by 6.4)

New York Times had Biden at +3.0 (Missed by 6.4)

CNBC had Trump at +3.0 (Missed by 6.4)

CBS News had Biden at +2.0 (Missed by 5.4)

Rasmussen had Biden at +1.0 (Missed by 4.4)

Quinnipiac had Biden at +5.0 (Missed by 3.4)

Susquehanna had Trump at +1.0 (Missed by 2.4)

ABC News had Trump at +2.0 (Missed by 1.4)

Trafalgar had Trump at +2.0 (Missed by 1.4)

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IN CONCLUSION, of all the polls that were listed and took polls across multiple different swing states, heres the final ranking, from most shittest to least fucked, of polling in the United States:

Shit Tier (Missed by an average of more than 6.0% at least 3 times)

Monmouth (Missed by 6.2, 3.7, 11.2, 9.4)..................................... Average miss = 7.63%

ABC (Missed by 6.3, 16.3, 6.2, 1.4) ................................................ Average miss = 7.55%

Quinnipiac (Missed by 6.2, 12.2, 7.2, 3.4)..................................... Average miss = 7.25%

CNN (Missed by 9.3, 7.3, 9.2, 3.1).................................................. Average miss = 7.23%

The Hill (Missed by 8.3, 4.2, 6.4).................................................... Average miss = 6.30%

New York Times (Missed by 5.3, 10.3, 5.2, 0.3, 5.1, 11.2, 6.4)...... Average miss = 6.26%

Bad Tier (Missed by an average between 5.0% or 6.0% at least 3 times)

Reuters (Missed by 7.3, 9.3, 4.2, 1.1, 7.4)...................................... Average miss = 5.86%

Emerson (Missed by 6.3, 7.3, 3.2, 1.3, 1.1, 9.2, 7.2, 9.4)............... Average miss = 5.63%

CNBC (Missed by 6.3, 7.3, 3.2, 3.0, 6.4)......................................... Average miss = 5.24%

Fox News (Missed by 9.3, 4.3, 4.2, 3.0).......................................... Average miss = 5.20%

A Tier (Missed by an average of between 3.0% to 5.0% at least 3 times)

NBC (Missed by 4.2, 0.9, 7.4)......................................................... Average miss = 4.17%

Rasmussen (Missed by 2.2, 4.9, 4.2, 4.4)...................................... Average miss = 3.93%

Trafalgar (Missed by 4.7, 0.3, 2.8, 5.3, 3.9, 3.2, 1.4)...................... Average miss = 3.09%

Insider Advantage (Missed by 0.7, 2.8, 2.3, 6.2)........................... Average miss = 3.00%

HOLY FUCKING SHIT GOD Tier (Somehow missed by average of under 3.0% at least 3 times)

Susquehanna (Missed by 2.3, 1.8, 1.9, 2.4).................................. Average miss = 2.10%

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#2

Imabench

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Imabench

11.12.2020 05:25PM

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11.12.2020 05:25PM

TL;DR

1 - TV networks other than NBC for some reason cant poll for shit
2 - Susquehanna is fucking outstanding with their accuracy, they polled four different states towards the end and never missed by more than 2.5%
3 - InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen, and Trafalgar are also pretty reliable and accurate

#3

SirAnonymous

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SirAnonymous

11.12.2020 05:34PM

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11.12.2020 05:34PM

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@Imabench

And Trafalgar's the one everyone laughed at. I'll be eating humble pie, though. I laughed at them too.

#4

Vader

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Vader

11.12.2020 06:29PM

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11.12.2020 06:29PM

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@Imabench

How the fuck did people think Iowa would go for Biden...?

#5

Trent0405

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Trent0405

11.12.2020 08:12PM

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11.12.2020 08:12PM

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@SirAnonymous

And Trafalgar's the one everyone laughed at. I'll be eating humble pie, though. I laughed at them too.

I did too, I never necessarily distrusted them, but I always thought they were biased. Perhaps they knew something everyone else didn't.

#6

ILikePie5

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ILikePie5

11.12.2020 09:48PM

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11.12.2020 09:48PM

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@SirAnonymous

And Trafalgar's the one everyone laughed at. I'll be eating humble pie, though. I laughed at them too.

Nate Silver needs to be fired. He disregarded the three best polling firms: Traf, Susquehanna, and InsiderAdvantages.

#7

Dr.Franklin

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Dr.Franklin

11.12.2020 11:59PM

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11.12.2020 11:59PM

so polling companies do better than media outlets

not a big surprise

#8

Crocodile

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Crocodile

11.13.2020 01:45AM

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11.13.2020 01:45AM

ABC had Biden at +17.0 (Missed by a fucking hilarious 16.3)

Ah yes, truly reliable polls

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#9

Imabench

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Imabench

11.13.2020 02:19AM

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11.13.2020 02:19AM

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@ILikePie5

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

If you scroll down on the 538 site Susquehanna shows up and its ranked C which is COMPLETE horse shit in light of what the actual results were

Quinnipiac and Monmouth getting B+ and A+ is also horse shit since those polls statistically were the first and third worst polls out of all of them!

#10

ILikePie5

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ILikePie5

11.13.2020 02:27AM

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11.13.2020 02:27AM

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@Imabench

If you scroll down on the 538 site Susquehanna shows up and its ranked C which is COMPLETE horse shit in light of what the actual results were

Quinnipiac and Monmouth getting B+ and A+ is also horse shit since those polls statistically were the first and third worst polls out of all of them!

Yup, but there’s not going to be any accountability. Nate Silver will continue to earn thousands to be a glorified poll reader.

#11

ILikePie5

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ILikePie5

11.13.2020 03:47AM

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11.13.2020 03:47AM

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@Imabench

You should take a look at the Maine Senate Polls. Not even close. Susan Collins easily won and she didn’t lead in one poll. Her vote share never went above 44% in any poll which is significant since Maine does RCV. Complete and utter failure.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/me/maine_senate_collins_vs_gideon-6928.html