Naruto Mafia DP2

Author: Vader

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#91
MisterChris
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@Pattern
I argued that he was most likely innocent. No one listened. So here we are. That's why post #25 exists. Also, the idea that I'd have insider info is bs. I always reserved the possibility of Speed being mafia. I just argued that it was most likely not the case. 

As for the rest...random lynching has never seemed like a good strategy to me. I get that you don't have previous games to reference when it comes to my behavior, but it's the truth. 
#92
WaterPhoenix
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@Pattern
But if ragnar is scum, I would also so is pie.
why? it may be a bus but it's more likely than not it isn't from where i see it.

#93
ILikePie5
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@WaterPhoenix
because ragnar rb'd your nk (can rb'er do that?).
Yes, Roleblockers Can prevent NKs
#94
ILikePie5
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@skittlez09
@Crocodile
@BearMan
Im down for any question u throw at me i just want to get rid of the scum 
Top 3 scum and why?
#95
ILikePie5
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@Greyparrot
@MisterChris
@Pattern
How do y’all feel about Oro? He’s seeming a bit lurky which contradicts his town meta where he’s usually more active and aggressively pressuring people
#96
BearMan
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@ILikePie5
Right now, I have absolutely no clue.  By slight tells, I'd say the scummiest person right now is MisterChris. He always flips on whichever side town is basically supporting. (agreed with me when town townread me, agreed with pattern when town townread pattern). Again, this is only a slight tell, and he is a newbie, so it might just be that.

I think we should focus on the protective roles protecting GreyParrot, as he is very likely to be tracker, even with a bad justification. 
#97
MisterChris
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@BearMan
I'd say the scummiest person right now is MisterChris. He always flips on whichever side town is basically supporting. (agreed with me when town townread me, agreed with pattern when town townread pattern). Again, this is only a slight tell, and he is a newbie, so it might just be that.
This is untrue. I did not support a Speed or Grey lynch when both were universally supported. I townread Pie just recently when there was mounting pressure on him.  And I was the one to both help launch and help end the campaign on Pattern. There is a difference between jumping on an already rolling wagon and starting/ending it when the evidence points a different direction. If you want to see what goes on in my head, read my daily observations. You'll see that my opinion changes as the evidence evolves, not to the whims of the town. Am I perfectly logical and consistent? no. But I'm definitely not a pancake. 

Also, if this is about me saying we should investigate you, let me make it clear that I mean investigate. Not lynch. Truth is, I doubt you are scum. You've been too helpful in other areas. But there are admittedly some scummy tells to be found. 
#98
MisterChris
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@ILikePie5
I'm not sure about his town meta... I'm new. But he has actually been fairly active so far (this day phase) and I don't think I've seen any scumtells. That said, this may match his scum meta perfectly
#99
ILikePie5
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@MisterChris
Also, if this is about me saying we should investigate you, let me make it clear that I mean investigate. Not lynch. Truth is, I doubt you are scum. You've been too helpful in other areas. But there are admittedly some scummy tells to be found. 
This is pretty much everyone at this point. Lemme ask you this question: who are the other scum besides scum from your viewpoint?
#100
Greyparrot
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@ILikePie5
Im really curious how Ragnar blocked a role that isn't blockable.
#101
MisterChris
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@ILikePie5
Sorry, I think I misunderstand the question... "who are the other scum besides scum from your viewpoint?"

Can you elaborate a bit
#102
ILikePie5
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@MisterChris
Sorry, I think I misunderstand the question... "who are the other scum besides scum from your viewpoint?"

Can you elaborate a bit
My bad lol, my brain is fried from all the college shit

Sorry, who are the other scum besides BearMan from your viewpoint.
#103
MisterChris
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@Greyparrot
Yeah I mean, Pie has no night action right?
#104
ILikePie5
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@Greyparrot
Im really curious how Ragnar blocked a role that isn't blockable.
Well it’s pretty much an RB hitting a vanilla - their action goes true but no notification is given to the person who’s roleblocked. Speaking of that, I really want to hear his justification for roleblocking me
#105
ILikePie5
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@Barney
What was your justification for Roleblocking me?
#106
ILikePie5
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@MisterChris
Yeah I mean, Pie has no night action right?
The way I understand his action would go through but I wouldn’t receive any message because I can’t engage in night actions.
#107
MisterChris
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@ILikePie5
Ohh gotcha. Yeah as it stands I'm mostly dropping my suspicion of Skittlez, he is much too open. Croc is fishy to me. And I would like to know Ragnar's side of the story too. 
#108
ILikePie5
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Signing off for the night, got class tomorrow 😬
#109
MisterChris
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@ILikePie5
Signing off for the night, got class tomorrow 😬
RIP in peace
#110
WaterPhoenix
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@MisterChris
RIP in peace

#111
Barney
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@WaterPhoenix
i don't really know if the that1 died from hiding behind mafia or because ragnar rb'd your nk (can rb'er do that?)
Yes. They just have to target the whichever scum who was attempting to carry out a NK. I've actually been scum and gotten stun locked, unable to carry out NKs (which resulted in me conceding... please excuse the excessive humor).
#112
Barney
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@Greyparrot
Im really curious how Ragnar blocked a role that isn't blockable.
To my knowledge, RB can target anyone of any role. Kinda like Tracker: you can follow anyone, and they might not leave their house but you'll still have followed them.
#113
Barney
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@ILikePie5
What was your justification for Roleblocking me?
I want to say it's random, but I did not overly like your posts (lead the Speed wagon for example), and the look of Kaguya Ōtsutsuki creeps me out. That combined with ruling out a few choices (croc for example, who if scum might fail to be active enough to NK anyone, and Grey who if town could get valuable results from tracking (and pretty hard to fake if scum)).
#114
BearMan
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I don't really understand town at this point. You say other people are scum, but for some reason you don't interrogate them at all? For example, I and Croc. You claim I have scummy tells, but somehow this does not invite interrogation from other people.
#115
Mharman
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@Vader
Nice to see mafia is still active.
#116
oromagi
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I want to flip Pie.

  • A Weak Hider has two options:
    1) Hide behind the least likely town kill, becoming unkillable for that night and confirming that person as town.
    2) Hide behind the player most likely to be scum: and make no secret that if you end up dead, that is what likely happened during the night phase. This can effectively be a guilty on a player.
    As with all Weak roles, it is best to leave a breadcrumb so that if you die, players can in retrospect work out who you must have hidden behind.
  • I am convinced that1user chose option #1 and was surprised to uncover SCUM.  I suspect that1user did bc but I am not convinced.
    • That means that scum almost certainly attempted NK and failed.  There are multiple possible scenarios that might have caused that failure but Ragnar has presented a plausible scenario and nobody has presented any other alternative.  If somebody is BULLETPROOF, for example, that information would shift probabilities significantly.
      • Pie has claimed SOLDIER, a role that is rare enough to not get mentioned on mafiascumwiki but with sufficient precedent to appear on drafterman's master list of roles.
        • The one precedent we've uncovered so far was from a game run by Pie, so we know that Pie's consideration of the role precedes this game at least.
          • If Pie were SCUM looking for a fake claim, we know that Pie was sufficiently familiar with the role to have considered the option
            • And also, SOLDIER is conveniently untestable.
            • If Pie were SCUM and did not have a visitation role, then claiming a non-visiting role like SOLDIER would be more likely and also make Pie a more likely selection for performing NKs.
      • Furthermore, Pie made the case against Pie's utility and bandwagon'd as soon as I started that lynch.
      • Furthermore, Pie has a self-admittedly scummy character claim and seems to be a principle, powerful enemy of Naruto's.
        • For example, of the eight characters whose affiliation I am able to check so far, ONLY Pie's character was not a member of  the ALLIED SHINOBI FORCES coallition and was, I think, the main BOSS opposing that coalition.  I think this is a theme division worth testing.
      • Pie's most powerful character doesn't match role.  As Pie admits, she is "arguably the most powerful character on the show"
        • Pie's justification that if the BOSS villain survives, TOWN wins doesn't make sense.
          • However, Speed & That1's justifications didn't make much sense.
            • However, my justification is on point.
    • ROLEBLOCKERs are at least as often SCUM as TOWN which makes Ragnar's claim perilous to make.  SCUM would have little motivation to make such a claim now.
      • Ragnar's claim is reinforced by GP's track of Ragnar.  If Ragnar's RB was redirected, GP would have shown otherwise.  This improves GP's claim somewhat to the extent that GP's report seems accurate.
      • Ragnar's role claim is consistent with Ragnar's character claim
In short, the odds that Pie is SCUM is better than any other player's odds and Pie's death has the further advantage of informing TOWN more than any other claim made so far.



#117
oromagi
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oromagi
X.That1User                  Sakura Haruno           HIDER(weak)
X.Speedrace                  Gaara                              VENGEFUL (strongarm?)
TOWN                               CLAIM
Ragnar                          Ensui Nara                         ROLEBLOCKER
iLikePie5                     Kaguya Otsutsuki            SOLDIER
Crocodile 
BearMan                    
Pattern                        Hinata Hyuga
skittlez09
Greyparrot                 Sasuke Uchicha            TRACKER
MrChris
iLikePie5                     Kaguya Otsutsuki            SOLDIER
SCUM                              CLAIM

UVC

iLikePie5 [2/6] Ragnar, oromagi
Crocodile [1/6] Pattern
Ragnar [1/6] GreyParrot





#118
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CORRECTION to POST #116:

  • Furthermore, Pie made the case against Pie's utility and bandwagon'd as soon as I started that lynch.
should read

    • Furthermore, Pie made the case against Speed's utility and bandwagon'd as soon as I started that lynch.
    This player regrets the error.


    #119
    skittlez09
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    @Vader
    hey everyone my wifi is fucked up tdy an crashed during school so unless it comes on soon ill prolly be gone.most of the day
    #120
    oromagi
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    @skittlez09
    You should VTL pie now then and make your character claim as well, please.