Short Version: Im like 80% sure Chauvin is going to get off and be found not guilty of the main charge against him for killing Floyd
Long Version: Prosecutors in Minnesota recently decided to press charges against the 3 officers that stood by as the main incident happened. Thats fine. They also upgraded the main charge against Chauvin from 3rd Degree Murder to Second Degree Murder. THATS a problem.
1st Degree Murder is premeditated, planned, intentional murder. Imagine a wife killing her spouse after planning to do it for a long time
2nd Degree Murder is an intentional murder that does not require planning or pre-meditation. Imagine a wife killing her spouse because she walked in on him cheating.
3rd Degree Murder in Minnesota is causing the death of another because of an inherently dangerous act. This is the one that applied to Chauvin the most.
Of these 3, 3rd Degree murder is the easiest one to convict him on. Chauvin knelt down on Floyd's neck for a lengthy period of time which can easily be argued to be an inherently dangerous action that directly resulted in Floyd's death. If this was the charge prosecutors stuck with, there would be a 70% to 80% chance they would win a conviction, and then the issue would be how long Chauvin actually goes to jail.......... 2nd Degree Murder though, the new charge that the Minnesota Prosecutor is levying against Chauvin, requires the prosecution to prove that Chauvin intended to murder Floyd, and thats going to be fucking difficult to prove. Chauvin can easily testify that he never intended to kill Floyd, he just wanted to keep him pinned to the ground until he stopped resisting, that he did not realize the danger he was putting Floyd in by keeping his knee on him, and that if he could take it all back he would, all while getting nice and weepy for the jury that in Minnesota is probably going to be 90% white at minimum...... The odds that the prosecution will be able to successfully argue that Chauvin intended to kill Floyd is very low, I think theres now a 20% chance at best that they can pull off a conviction compared to 70/80% if they stuck with a charge of Third Degree Murder.
Chauvin also faces a charge of Second Degree manslaughter, where a person's negligence causes death or great bodily harm to another. That charge will almost surely stick to Chauvin UNLESS he testifies that he was following officer protocol he received from his training by the Minnesota PD. Minnesota PD has claimed they do not train or permit Chauvin's tactic of restraint, so this charge has a pretty good chance of sticking.
The problem is that the MAX sentence for 2nd degree manslaughter is 10 years, TOPS.
If the 2nd Degree Murder charge fails because the prosecution cant prove Chauvin intended to kill Floyd, then even if the 2nd Degree Manslaughter charge is upheld, Floyd is looking at 10 years in prison at a maximum.... Chances are though that a judge may decide 8 years is good enough due to the inherently difficult line of work being a police officer is and the circumstances of the incident. Chauvin starts out in prison with 2 years of good behavior, sentence is reduced later to 5 years instead of 8 when he first started out, and then 1 more year in jail later with 2 years left on his sentence, Chauvin gets out on probation for the remaining 2 years, effectively amounting to 3 years in jail for killing Floyd.
I dont like this at all, I think the 3rd Degree Murder was a better charge more likely to lead to a guilty verdict, which combined with the Manslaughter Charge could have put Chauvin in jail for at most 35 years. Now though by going for the higher charge, prosecutors are betting hard they can prove Chauvin intended to kill Floyd and risk him doing maybe 5 years in jail total. This is going to completely fuck up the protests and riots taking place in the country, it will probably reignite 1-3 months from now when the trial will have finished.