please explain your reasoning for #90 / what it means—why would the chronology of Oro's reads matter to Zaradi's pressure play?
The sequence of what happened there isn't just Oro's reads. It's Oro's reads, Zaradi's suggesting Oro is potentially scum, and then Zaradi not voting for Oro.
There are four possible worlds. Both are scum, one is town and the other is scum; vice versa; and both are town.
If they're both scum, then Zaradi has to do something in response to what Oro did otherwise he looked scummy; but bussing a team mate early is risky, especially if a wagon forms.
So in the world where they're both potentially scum, it looked to me like Zaradi maybe had a guilty conscience and while he didn't feel comfortable leading a potential wagon on Oro, he certainly seemed willing to jump on one potentially early so as to preserve himself for later in the game.
Also in the world where Zaradi is scum but Oro is town, then Zaradi is looking like he's laying the foundation for a mislynch but again he's hesitating; he's not willing to lead the wagon, just jump on board once it's rolling.
If Zaradi is town and Oro is scum, then where Zaradi thinks he found a scum tell he should be voting for Oro whether Oro is town or scum, even if for no other reason than to apply pressure. But that didn't happen. So it's weird.
But then i've got to consider the alternative world where Zaradi VTL's Oro. I think that if that had happened, where Zaradi just voted, I would have read that as being very pro-town. Even if he's grasping straws he would still be generating activity and potentially forcing others to take a position. But maybe not. I wouldn't have read it as OMUGS because I don't think as a player Zaradi is about that life.
The problem here is that I agreed with Zaradi that what Oro did was scummy -- but town makes mistakes like that all the time, because they're uninformed. That's what uninformed people do. I also can see how town Zaradi might be thinking that by simply noting the behavior that Oro is up to, he has done his part. So there is a different play style between him and I; except he has been acutely focused on inconsistency in other people's actions, yet doesn't seem to note the inconsistency in his own. Does scum Zaradi identify this contradiction and avoid it? Seems possible, but town Zaradi isn't even thinking about it.
If this was Zaradi's only action I'd be VTLing him and trying to get a wagon started, but independently of this Zaradi has been scum hunting. He's been asking provoking questions and he doesn't seem to be discriminating in who he is talking to. He's generally stayed on point. The questions he is asking seem to be useful, for the time being. The interactions with Oro and the sequence of events still stands out to me, but I think i'll be able to get a better sense of what that means and whether it means anything later on -- especially as I see more interaction between those two.
That's my thinking so far on that limited issue.
