Themeless Mafia 1 - Day Phase 1

Because he's my top candidate for scum. 

And as I stated above, do not do the dashboard thing or whatever it was you previously did.  It confused me and I think it may have confused others.  Maybe I'm just a moron and too stupid to understand what you're doing but accommodate me because a list of hierarchical (or not, says sui) reads on a spectrum from probability of town to scum alone requires me to speculate as to why you are thinking what you are thinking.  Do this with all deliberate speed. 

For the same reasons as you previously posted?  Do you think anything about Lunatic (TUF's) actions subsequent to your case against him change that?  If so, why? 

Do you think there's anything in particular that's exonerated him? I havent seen anything

Also take the full BDSM test.  The partial test doesn't give me the insight I am looking for.  

Translation: take the test again, I didn't find anything to make fun of you for

Too much to get caught up on right now. I left at page 16, and we're on page 21.

Mafia is working to keep me at L-1, and I don't foresee that going away by pointing out the flawed logic on why this wagon was formed.

When I left, people were focusing on the question of whether or not Lucky assigned roles at random. It was random, I can say that with absolute certain.

Further, if mafia have a power role, it's blocker.  Of course by saying this, I'll be dead by morning. I suggest voting for someone who has actually made scum slips.

Not caught up, but Objectivity getting mod-killed stands out to me. Could have sworn there were votes on me based on he and I being a scum team...

I have a much harder time seeing TUF's activity in the second half of the DP after your post as coming from an informed perspective or subjectively as playing consistently with his scum meta, to the extent I am familiar with it.  Maybe you're right, but I think the stronger probability at this point is Ragnar though I am still thinking about this in view of the fact that I now have to entertain the possibility that one of Sui, Oro, or someone else? would be his scum mate.  It doesn't negate the theory, but it does mean I have to think more about the situation and potentially reevaluate. 

Here's the main thing, though.  TUF took the chance on Ragnar and I think TUF's reads on Ragnar, that Ragnar is scum, are right on three levels. 

First, relevant to Ragnar:  Objectively I think Ragnar is the most likely scum candidate based on his actions in the DP.  Subjectively I think Ragnar is playing inconsistently with his town meta.   

Second, relevant to TUF: objectively I think TUF's reads on Ragnar are right for the reason I just said.  Subjectively I have a very hard time seeing TUF coming from an informed perspective and still willing to commit to VTLing Ragnar given that if he is wrong he knows that you are going to come after him with full force tomorrow, and likely with good reason.  When TUF backed off of Ragnar and particularly VTNL'd I was seriously thinking for a minute that I may need to reconsider this, but he quickly corrected the mistake.   The fact that TUF made the mistake suggests he isn't being as calculated and methodical as I would expect him to be at this point in the game and especially after an event as significant as a mod kill.  Scum TUF isn't posting stream of consciousness thoughts.  He's making sure he has a good set of reasons for why he's posting what he's posting because he's got something to hide.  Town TUF on the other hand is thinking about how to figure out what the next steps are and he's not worried about looking like scum because he isn't scum.   Moreover, as scum I would expect that if TUF was scum he would be hunting for very particular kinds of information DP1, so as to maximize utility of a night kill.  Again, the VTNL thing stands out to me as something that is both anti-town and pro-scum, but he corrected that in like less than ten minutes, or maybe somewhere around that.  And the fact that he made that unforced error is telling me that he is posting stream of consciousness rather than being super calculating.  Again, these are not things I expect scum TUF to do.  

Third, relevant to the game in general as between TUF and Ragnar: TUF isn't lurking, posting bullshit or noncommittal reads, evading questions, or suggesting that he should sheep other players while contributing nothing to the game.  Ragnar was, is, and continues to do all of those things, which is why I continue to see him as a better lynch candidate even though I do not have a concrete theory on who his scum mate is.  I am still working that out.  So while I am less confident now in Ragnar than I was pre the mod kill, and while I think Adam's flip doesn't give a whole lot of useful information, I still do not think and am not willing to even pursue a VTL on TUF today.  Tomorrow, after results, idk maybe.  We will see what happens in the night phase but I think that is premature.  That being said, I don't think the case you made against TUF is wrong -- at least it isn't self evidently wrong.  There is potentially something there and it's something I will obviously have to consider more once there are results tomorrow, and if the results are what I expect they will be, I think any doubt to that effect will be resolved.  TUF is still playing like a townie (and a vanilla one at that) to me, and he is not doing the things Ragnar is so I do not see myself VTLing TUF this DP unless something really significant changes like, idk... a total reversal in what TUF has been doing so far.

I like you... and I'm not going to make fun of you.  So not sure why you think I'd be making fun of you.

I might sexually harass you, but only gently.  ;)

A bit more on this.  

In the world where TUF is scum, I think TUF is actively trying to derail the Ragnar wagon whether Ragnar is town or scum.  And again, that isn't happening.  TUF is taking the chance on Ragnar because he thinks that Ragnar is actually scum and he is doing that after he has thought that through and accounted for the implications.  

I dont think this is true in the slightest.

Unvote. If you need me to explain why I won't. Just read ragnars last post and if that doesn't answer why I'm unvoting then you wont be getting any follow up from me on the matter.

Why not?

~~~

So lunatic saw it. Good to know.

And you are 100% sure Zaradi doesn't have what he just claimed to have?

What did I claim to have?

What Ragnar just claimed to have, not you.

?? I think I know what you are saying. Regardless, by nature of the set up, it will reveal itself in later day phases if it's a lie.

If you are soft claiming vanilla I will unvote.  My whole working theory up until this point is that you, and not Ragnar, have the role I think you have. 

Well I'll just spell it out.  I think Ragnar's soft claim is a cheap form of derailment bullshit because Zaradi is the only person I see so far that has been playing like he has that role. 

You know theres no good way for me to answer that question without hard claiming, right?

One of the other set up options gives the possibility of them both being town if your theory about zaradi is correct though.

Actually, walk me through your reasoning for why you think I have the role you believe I do.

Yes, but then why hasn't Ragnar been playing like he has that role?  If Ragnar is scum then he knows the setup and he knows which power role is not on the table that he can fake claim to dodge the lynch; and we are early enough in the DP that he can get away with that.  

The only world in which I see Ragnar as having any role other than vanilla is where he is a mason with Max; an option I think is fairly clear is not viable.  

You sure about that? 

Well, if there was ever any doubt, it should be clear that coal is definitely town now.

Wouldnt have asked if I wasnt sure.