I have reviewed your post in
273 and my thoughts are as follows: You are making a case for why we should be VTLing TUF (Lunatic) for death based on a number of considerations.
I will address the more pertinent ones here. I agree that TUF's post
181 raises several questions, some of which your response identifies. I think
191 also raises similar questions. Specifically, in 191, TUF characterized Dani's list of candidates to investigate further as a "convoluted pressure group". I have a hard time understanding why that group is convoluted. The group Dani identifies in
179 is Ragnar, Oro, Lunatic, and Airmax.
Absent from Dani's group is TUF. If Dani had scum read TUF I could understand his being defensive if he is town. But she didn't. So TUF isn't defending himself, but a group of four others. I do not understand why. If TUF is town then he should be willing to pressure at least one of that group, and he should have a preference for which among the group is the best candidate or he should be suggesting another option based on a set of reads wherein he identifies a more ideal candidate for investigation/pressure. Instead, in
181, TUF is doing one thing that matters and not doing two things that matter. The two things he is not doing is even entertaining a willingness to investigate/pressure while in the same instance he is not suggesting another alternative outside of that group. As town, if TUF has a better idea of who to pressure then he should be speaking up. The one thing he is doing that matters in 181 is he is casting doubt of the very utility of pressuring/investigation in the first instance. You identify this, correctly, as well, and seem to understand the implications to the degree that you are at least willing to state it.
In my prior post I claimed that both of you could not be scum. So, there are three possible worlds: TUF is town and you are scum; TUF is scum and you are town; or you and TUF are both town. The first and the third options become less viable, considering TUF's more recent activity I discuss above; which means that the world I am thinking about now as being the most likely would mean that TUF is scum, but that also would mean you have to be town. So as town, what I would expect you to be doing is at least catching most of the obvious things, and moving the ball forward. Independently of your past interactions with Oro, it seems like you're doing that. The events as they develop also look consistent with my past thinking that you both cannot be scum because you are hard scum reading TUF now to the point that you want him to be at L-1, which is not something I expect scum to do. You are also willing to lead the wagon here whereas you beat around the bush with Oro. I think you are saying that you are more confident that TUF is scum than you were that Oro was scum, and more confident that TUF is scum than that either of Objectivity are scum. (Here's something that's lingering in the back of my mind, though. I think as well you seem to have been demonstrating the most interest of anyone in actually getting something useful out of DP1; difficult as that may be. I think there's two possible reasons for that. More on this tomorrow.)
So there's a huge contrast between what you're doing and what TUF is doing. I am open to revisiting my town read on TUF. As of
278, Danielle VTL'd Ragnar, Sui followed Danielle. The only other vote on the board is yours, after TUF unvoted in
154, which I note is the first instance where my thinking on TUF became less certain. I asked others to post insight on why they thought my town read on TUF was wrong. Admittedly, it wasn't a strong read but one of instinct. I have a lot of thoughts on 154, but I've said enough for now. But here's the key quote from
154 that stands out to me:
Zaradi- Trying to decide on him as well. His aggressive early inquisition (while mostly pointless and mostly self explanatory from what I've seen) seems like a genuine interest to provoke activity, which is pro town. But his line of questioning in both my case, and Oromagi's case doesn't seem to go anywhere, or demonstrate what he specifically thinks is scummy in either case. I'd say it feels a bit convoluted, but again, I am not in his head. Maybe he had a thought and the answers just satisfied that line of inquiry and he didn't feel the need to further the questioning.
(I have added emphasis to this; TUF did not include the bold in the original).
TUF says that an aggressive early inquisition seems like a genuine interest to provoke activity, which TUF characterizes as pro-town to justify in part a potential town read (on you). Then TUF posts what he posts in response to Dani, and then you (note also
266), which I discussed at length above. where by his own standard what he is suggesting is diametrically opposed to not only an "aggressive" inquisition, but any inquisition at all without "a valid reason for it" as stated in
181. So what I am trying to figure out is what counts in the world where TUF is town as "a valid reason"? As well, Dani had reasons for wanting to pressure the group TUF characterized as "contrived". She didn't elaborate on them to the extent I have, but it's not like she was simply saying "pressure for the sake of pressure".
On the other hand, in the world where TUF is town, his reasons for defending that group is that he doesn't want to have a mislynch or waste time on something that isn't going to be productive. That means that he would have to have some alternative candidate for pressure/investigation AND a good reason for it; specifically a reason better than the reasons Dani had for her group. TUF hasn't produced this information. So I am having a hard time seeing TUF's actions from a town perspective. (Note: you in other posts, and others here, have identified incongruence between what I have done/said and what TUF said I have done/said. I agree that TUF has mischaracterized some of my actions, but that doesn't make me scum read him. Town misread people's actions all the time and when you're paraphrasing, as he was, and using adjectives to characterize behavior, there is high risk for miscommunication and misinterpretation. TUF's misreading or mischaracterizing them is null for this reason. My thinking here is independent of that consideration.)
So I am willing to VTL TUF. These actions make more sense as scum to me than as town; and the things he's done post my initial town read make me question my initial town read for a range of reasons, many of which I have stated above.
That means I am town reading you now. Depending on what happens tomorrow I will be more sold on this idea, potentially. We will see.
My list of reads is as follows:
Lunatic - Potentially scum
Ragnar - Potentially scum
Max - Potentially scum
Objectivity - Uncertain; needs to post more and respond to my prior post
199Oro - Uncertain; seems like clueless town
Zaradi - Potentially town, subject to events NP1 and DP2
Sui - Potentially town
Danielle - Town
I'm also willing to VTL Ragnar or Airmax.
VTL Lunatic
