Even though in 2016 Bernie stayed in the race damn near all the way to the end of the race, this time in 2020 he has decided to pull out before officially being eliminated.
Statistically Bernie was in a spot where he would have to win 75% of all contests to win the nomination over Biden, which was damn near impossible to do with Biden polling well in many parts of the country. Statistics never stopped Bernie in the past though, so to see Bernie actually realize he was numerically fucked, and then be forward-thinking enough to actually drop out of the race based on that realization, is a commendable development on his part.
Rather then make this a giant circle jerk/celebration thread though, I'd like to break down why i think Bernie lost the nomination
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Reason 1) Bernie banked on something that never materialized.
The youth vote, as volatile as it is, launched Bernie into contention in 2016 and has kept him viable in the national arena ever since.... In 2020 it was expected that the youth vote would have a large turnout, which would be beneficial for Bernie in a race as packed as it was when it first started. This was an acceptable observation to make since Trump is a very polarizing force, and there was a surge in the youth vote during the 2018 midterm elections that saw the Democrats regain the House of Representatives. Midterms always saw lower turnout than general election primaries, so it looked like the youth vote would be out in force for Bernie from the get-go.
The problem was it never did.
https://www.axios.com/youth-vote-2020-democratic-primaries-db5dbbf3-1295-44ae-9d2a-2283c06fbf02.html
Levels of youth voters stagnated or declined from their 2016 numbers in nearly every early state primary that took place by Super Tuesday when Biden launched into the lead. By banking his campaign on the one voter bloc that failed to materialize, let alone expand from previous levels in 2016 to 2018, Bernie was effectively launching his campaign in a rowboat while others were using wave-runners.
Levels of youth voters stagnated or declined from their 2016 numbers in nearly every early state primary that took place by Super Tuesday when Biden launched into the lead. By banking his campaign on the one voter bloc that failed to materialize, let alone expand from previous levels in 2016 to 2018, Bernie was effectively launching his campaign in a rowboat while others were using wave-runners.
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Reason #2) Bernie didn't bother actually looking around at the surroundings
Bernie had the youth vote on lockdown, there's no question of that, but it takes a bigger coalition than just one segment of the population to win the nomination, so candidates have to expand their base to other segments in order to build a voter bloc. Bernie far and away failed to accomplish this.... Rather then temper down some of his campaign platforms to appeal to more centrist and moderate Dem voters and expand his base, Bernie instead embarked on a campaign to try to convince moderates to move further to the left into his camp and refused to compromise on anything..... Biden did better with female voters, black voters, older voters, and non-college educated voters than Bernie did, which makes up a vast chunk of the American electorate, and he accomplished this mainly by staying as a centrist and letting Bernie push undecided voters closer to him..... Biden was able to built the coalition of voters that Hillary tried to build in 2016, Bernie just repeated 2016 of dominating the youth vote and trying to convince voters to come to his side rather then alter his platform to appeal to more voters.
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Reason #3) His platform wasn't practical.
Medicare for All, free college education, massive Wall Street Reform..... Bernie's biggest campaign cornerstones were very leftist ideas popular among his base, but the simple truth is that none of these things are even remotely able to be enacted into law.... No Republican will green light a single payer healthcare system, free college tuition, massive banking reforms, etc, and in all likelihood the GOP will still hold the Senate going into 2021.... Bernie's platform simply isnt obtainable because of the entrenchment of the GOP in the Senate, and anyone who values legislation actually getting passed and changes being made can see that Bernie was incapable of making that happen.
Medicare for All, free college education, massive Wall Street Reform..... Bernie's biggest campaign cornerstones were very leftist ideas popular among his base, but the simple truth is that none of these things are even remotely able to be enacted into law.... No Republican will green light a single payer healthcare system, free college tuition, massive banking reforms, etc, and in all likelihood the GOP will still hold the Senate going into 2021.... Bernie's platform simply isnt obtainable because of the entrenchment of the GOP in the Senate, and anyone who values legislation actually getting passed and changes being made can see that Bernie was incapable of making that happen.
The only way Bernie could pass a fraction of his legislation would be if the Democrats acquired a massive super-majority in the Senate that could override GOP votes. That was not something that was going to happen if Bernie was the nominee, it wouldn't happen no matter who was the nominee. Yet Bernie acted and campaigned as if it was almost a guarantee that he would walk into office with full legislative capability, and the vast majority of voters who figured out that wouldnt likely be the case therefore would conclude that Bernie would largely fail to accomplish any of the things he was campaigning on, which definitely pushed voters away and more towards the middle where Biden was.
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Reason #4) Bernie couldnt even win Progressive voters.
Let me pose this question. In early October, Warren registered at 26.8% while Biden was at 27.0% When Warren began sliding all the way down to 14% two months later in early December, most of her voters did not go to Sanders, they went to Buttigieg
Why, in the actual fuck, would left leaning Warren supporters who ideologically have more in common with Sanders supporters than any other candidate, decide to support the campaign of a Gay Mayor of South Bend Indiana who is nearly in the exact same camp as Biden?
Warren and Sanders were buddies throughout much of the early days of the primary, in part because their voters had so much in common, yet when Warren lost half her base and Bernie was looking to expand his to stay viable, they went to Buttigieg instead. If Bernie couldnt expand his base to moderate and centrist voters, that's one thing.... Its an entirely bigger and more problematic issue if Bernie couldnt expand his base to include other leftist leaning liberals already within the Democratic Party. If you argue that Warren supporters weren't 'True' progressives and are closer to the center than Bernie's platform, then that there arent enough voters Bernie could EVER convince to support his platform.
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Those are the main reasons why Bernie lost the nomination. He banked on the youth vote that never materialized, He failed to expand his base further outward past a fraction of latino voters, almost no part of his platform could have made it through Congress and arrive at his desk for him to sign, and he couldnt bring in Warren supporters to join his base when he desperately needed to.
