A wager on death; or, the coronavirus and the 2020 election

Author: Swagnarok

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#1
Swagnarok
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Okay. So...

Donald Trump has done something really, really stupid:
He has made, and then has doubled down on repeatedly, statements which have little in way of potential payoff to him and his 2020 campaign but which, on the other hand, could backfire tremendously.

He chose to downplay COVID-19, better known as the coronavirus.
The instinct behind this is obvious: Thus far, the left has tried to paint everything about his time in office as being doom and gloom, so it's no wonder he interpreted their coverage of the coronavirus outbreak from this same angle.
To be fair, there is another practical reason for this: to prevent a stock market panic. But depending on how bad it gets that's eventually gonna happen either way, no matter what he says. If anything, a measured response of "We acknowledge the problem but we'll deal with it strongly" would be far more reassuring (to ordinary people, and certainly also to day traders) than a leader who metaphorically buries his head in the sand.

Of course, the Dems are gonna hammer him on that, and rightfully so. I'm sure some of them already have. But here's the thing: the full consequences of this are not yet clear. We've now gotten the first confirmed coronavirus death in the US, but we're nowhere near the level of mass pandemic just yet. It's still a relatively marginal issue, so far as the 2020 election goes. Railing about "Trump corruption" and climate change is still far more potent a message to their base than focusing on the coronavirus.

But it could get worse. A lot worse. This presents a window of opportunity, between the time of posting and when this finally happens: an opportunity for one of the lagging Democratic candidates.
If said person, preferably somebody who enjoys rapport with the medical profession, turns their campaign around right now and makes the coronavirus their hot button issue, early, and therefore "corners the market" on this talking point while demand for such is still low, then it *could* pay off big time in coming weeks. Maybe not, but it could.
If, as one prediction have put it, 40-70% of all people on earth will catch the coronavirus within the next year, and if the death rate amounts to 1 out of 30 infected, somewhere in the area of 4 to 7 MILLION Americans could die from this thing, easily the biggest national catastrophe since 9/11.

If you'll recall George W. Bush was a dull, maybe not too bright Republican governor, who probably got the nomination because daddy was president, and who in 2000 still lost the popular vote in spite of the 8 year rule, a much more right-leaning America and press compared to today, and a demographic map that was not as skewed by illegal immigration as it is now.
Come a certain terrorist attack and then the year 2004, he won the popular vote by 3 million.

At this point the common assumption has become that this is Bernie's game to lose. He's emerged as the obvious front-runner, and by a large margin. The only person he has to worry about is Trump. You know what that means? The rest of those guys have nothing to lose. They can either drop out now, continue to putter along until they run out of money, or make a wager on death.
#2
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@Swagnarok
I think you're giving trump too much credit. His instincts tell him that if something bad happens, lie. Lie fast, like vigorously and repeatedly. And it has worked for him. His base believes his lies and he gets away with them all the time. So when news came up that could tank the stock market and ruin his re-election chances he just did what he always does. He lied and tried to blame the democrats. 

The only question is will his base continue to believe his lies. As the crisis gets worse, he will find a way for it to be someone else's fault. Maybe it'll be china's fault, or the democrats, or the "deep state" full of "never trumpers" sabotaging his work, or maybe he'll just throw Pence under the bus. But no matter what happens, he's going to continue lying. And based on his history, odds are his base will believe whatever excuse he makes up. 
#3
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This is no time for partisan politics, yet Democrats continue to do so because it benefits them.
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It's always time for partisan politics. Partisan politics are the norm nowadays.

#5
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This is no time for partisan politics, yet Democrats continue to do so because it benefits them.
Trump has been cutting funding to the agencies america now needs to deal with this crisis. He put Pence, a man famous for causing an HIV outbreak, in charge of fighting it. He keeps outright lying about the seriousness of the issue. 

Pointing out how horribly this looming disaster is being handled is a perfectly reasonably thing to do. 


#6
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@Swagnarok
Is there a link to him saying this or like tweeting it or whatever he did?
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#7
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Here he accuses Dems of playing up the coronavirus threat and politicizing it as a weapon against him. He goes so far as to call it the "new hoax".


And here's him, a couple days ago, saying that:
"And the number one priority from our standpoint is the health and safety of the American people.  And that’s the way I viewed it when I made that decision.  Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low."

#8
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Trump has been cutting funding to the agencies america now needs to deal with this crisis. He put Pence, a man famous for causing an HIV outbreak, in charge of fighting it. He keeps outright lying about the seriousness of the issue. 

Pointing out how horribly this looming disaster is being handled is a perfectly reasonably thing to do. 
<br>
Pence is just the person they report too because he has 24/7 direct lines with the President. As for the aid ok, but he’s asking for more. Even if Trump did make a mistake, put it aside if you want to help Americans.
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Pence is just the person they report too because he has 24/7 direct lines with the President.
he is running the show. He is managing it. And what experience he does have in this field is extremely bad.

Even if Trump did make a mistake, put it aside if you want to help Americans.
If trump came out and said something like "i was wrong, this is serious" then fine. At least he would be showing that he is trying to deal with it. As far as I know he hasn't done that. In fact he is calling it a hoax. 

How does me not criticizing the incompetence and mismanagement of a crisis help Americans? If you want to help americans you need to criticize them so they get off their ass and actually handle this crisis. Letting them off the hook with no criticism will only get more americans killed. 

#10
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he is running the show. He is managing it. And what experience he does have in this field is extremely bad.

No he’s not. He’s just being reported to so he can have direct lines to the President.

If trump came out and said something like "i was wrong, this is serious" then fine. At least he would be showing that he is trying to deal with it. As far as I know he hasn't done that. In fact he is calling it a hoax. 
GP disproved this. He called the fake news coverage of him not doing anything a hoax. Maybe you should watch the rallies. And he has said taken actions that are unprecedented. He’s requested additional funds as well. But Democrats want to play politics showing things he’s done in the past.

How does me not criticizing the incompetence and mismanagement of a crisis help Americans? If you want to help americans you need to criticize them so they get off their ass and actually handle this crisis. Letting them off the hook with no criticism will only get more americans killed. 
You can walk and chew gum at the same time. Criticizing him is fine. But give him the money the agencies need to combat this crisis.
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No he’s not. He’s just being reported to so he can have direct lines to the President.
so in your mind, the job means absolutely nothing. He isn't managing anything. Then who is managing it? Do you think the president (the guy who called it a hoax) is managing it?

Maybe you should watch the rallies. 
you think i want to waste my time by watching a narcissist lie dozens of times to the applause of cultists? 

And he has said taken actions that are unprecedented.
What actions has he taken specifically? or are you just repeating talking points?


He’s requested additional funds as well. 
Democrats pushed him to ask for the funding. They want him to ask for more. 

You can walk and chew gum at the same time. Criticizing him is fine. But give him the money the agencies need to combat this crisis.
ok, no one has suggested refusing to provide any and all resources the government needs to handle the crisis. So please don't pretend that anyone has. 

But their bungling is going to get alot of people killed. For example Trump has been trying to cut funding to the agencies needed to handle this. When they sent people to transport the american's on that cruise ship, they gave them no training and no protective gear. They showed up and found CDC employees in safety equipment and they didn't even have a mask. They had face to face contact with infected people and had no protective gear.
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so in your mind, the job means absolutely nothing. He isn't managing anything.
Yes pretty much. He just checks in now and then to see what’s up opand received updates which he can relay to the President.

Then who is managing it? Do you think the president (the guy who called it a hoax) is managing it?
The healthcare offficials. And please source where he called the coronavirus a hoax. Some for Fake News I’ll have to call out considering I actually watched the rally.

Democrats pushed him to ask for the funding. They want him to ask for more. 
Good, more funding. You think he cares lol? 8.5 billion is perfectly fine. He’s said as much.

ok, no one has suggested refusing to provide any and all resources the government needs to handle the crisis. So please don't pretend that anyone has. 
Where’s the money then? Maybe instead of constantly criticizing the President they should get to work.

But their bungling is going to get alot of people killed. For example Trump has been trying to cut funding to the agencies needed to handle this. When they sent people to transport the american's on that cruise ship, they gave them no training and no protective gear. They showed up and found CDC employees in safety equipment and they didn't even have a mask. They had face to face contact with infected people and had no protective gear.
The funds haven’t been cut though. Congress has rejected these cuts. The CDC still has the same spending it’s always had. They’re idiots if they didn’t show up with protective gear.
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That's not good. I guess I can see his standpoint, if he puts a bunch of effort into preventing the virus from spreading and it breaks out in the us then that's gonna be his fault and if he actually does prevent it, then it'll be one of his great achievments. i could see the incentive in not wanting to taking the gamble, but the way he does seems a bit cowardly.
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#14
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You got one thing wrong: If the coronavirus blows over, people will simply forget about it. There's no payoff for Trump.

#15
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I don't know about that one, stopping a never before seen viral infection is at least a semi-decent accomplishment
#16
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There's no payoff for Trump to have the country live in fear over things the government cannot control either.
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Yes pretty much. He just checks in now and then to see what’s up opand received updates which he can relay to the President.
ok. so you assume he is doing nothing. Then the big announcement means nothing and they need to announce who is actually running things since pence is too incompetent. 

Then who is managing it? Do you think the president (the guy who called it a hoax) is managing it?
The healthcare offficials.
Who? That is the whole point. Trump made a big show of putting someone in charge. You are saying he isn't actually in charge and isn't doing anything. So no one is managing this crisis as far as you know. 

Good, more funding. You think he cares lol? 8.5 billion is perfectly fine. He’s said as much.
your point was that democrats shouldn't obstruct it. I explained that they aren't and your point was invalid. 

Where’s the money then? Maybe instead of constantly criticizing the President they should get to work.
what are you talking about? congress approves the money, but they don't actually have any role in managing the crisis. That is trump's job. Maybe he should get to work. 

The funds haven’t been cut though. Congress has rejected these cuts.
Agreed. Trump tried hard to screw over america, the democrats refused to let him. And now here we are with a perfect example of how the democrats are working hard to save america from trump. 

They’re idiots if they didn’t show up with protective gear.
No, they were ordered to go. Trump's team provided no training and no gear. That is a failure of management. And you know who is in charge of that? Trump. 
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ok. so you assume he is doing nothing. Then the big announcement means nothing and they need to announce who is actually running things since pence is too incompetent. 
He’s talking with Governors and other high ranking state officials to coordinate resources and plans.

Who? That is the whole point. Trump made a big show of putting someone in charge. You are saying he isn't actually in charge and isn't doing anything. So no one is managing this crisis as far as you know. 
I don’t think you’re understanding. The suggestions the courses of actions come from healthcare officials in the CDC and HHS. They relay this information to Mike Pence and he relays it to the President if need be and to the Governors. 

your point was that democrats shouldn't obstruct it. I explained that they aren't and your point was invalid. 
They’re criticizing Trump for absolutely no reason lol.

what are you talking about? congress approves the money, but they don't actually have any role in managing the crisis. That is trump's job. Maybe he should get to work. 
I’m talking about the funds. Instead of criticizing the President they should get to work and pass the emergency funding that the Executive requested. And Trump has been at work. He’s banned travel from areas, restricted travel from affected areas, etc. Are you implying that Trump isn’t fighting the crisis or that he doesn’t want to? Cause that’s blatantly false.

Agreed. Trump tried hard to screw over america, the democrats refused to let him. And now here we are with a perfect example of how the democrats are working hard to save america from trump. 
Republicans in Congress also agreed. It was bipartisan. The current question is of the virus. Stop wasting your breath condemning Trump for his past actions and work to help all of America.

No, they were ordered to go. Trump's team provided no training and no gear. That is a failure of management. And you know who is in charge of that? Trump. 
A.) Trump did not want the cruise ship passengers back in the mainland
B.) The CDC has all the resources it needs. If someone wasn’t trained, it’s not Trump’s fault, it’s whoever was in charge’s fault
C.) I would like to see a source for this.
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He’s talking with Governors and other high ranking state officials to coordinate resources and plans.
according to who exactly? And you just said he wasn't managing anything. Now is in in charge of co-ordination? Either he is managing or he isn't. 

I don’t think you’re understanding. The suggestions the courses of actions come from healthcare officials in the CDC and HHS. They relay this information to Mike Pence and he relays it to the President if need be and to the Governors. 
So he is a secretary? He takes messages and passes them along. He isn't managing anything or even doing anything that a 10 year old couldn't do. 

your point was that democrats shouldn't obstruct it. I explained that they aren't and your point was invalid. 
They’re criticizing Trump for absolutely no reason lol.
They are criticizing him for mismanagement of a crisis. That is a very good reason. 

I’m talking about the funds. Instead of criticizing the President they should get to work and pass the emergency funding that the Executive requested.
do you have any evidence that there has been any delay in congress doing this? 

nd Trump has been at work. He’s banned travel from areas, restricted travel from affected areas, etc. Are you implying that Trump isn’t fighting the crisis or that he doesn’t want to? Cause that’s blatantly false.
I'm not saying he doesn't want to. I'm saying he is incompetent and is mismanaging the crisis. 

Republicans in Congress also agreed. It was bipartisan. The current question is of the virus. Stop wasting your breath condemning Trump for his past actions and work to help all of America.
umm no. Democrats didn't agree to the cuts, that is why they didn't happen. It was trump and his lapdog republicans in congress thought it was a good idea to cut funding to all the agencies we need to protect us. 

A.) Trump did not want the cruise ship passengers back in the mainland
I know, he would rather them die locked on a boat. He is such a compasionate man. 

B.) The CDC has all the resources it needs. If someone wasn’t trained, it’s not Trump’s fault, it’s whoever was in charge’s fault
It wasn't the CDC that was the problem. It was employees of the department of health. But if resources were being managed effectively, that would never have happened. Trump, and his administration, are managing the response to this crisis. It is their ineptitude that caused government employees to not be trained or provided protective equipment.

C.) I would like to see a source for this.
Here is an article about it. 
#20
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according to who exactly? And you just said he wasn't managing anything. Now is in in charge of co-ordination? Either he is managing or he isn't. 
Uh Mike Pence said it on live television that he’s talking with governors and other state officials. He is the executive, but he’s leaving the job of resources and research and all that fun stuff to the professionals.

So he is a secretary? He takes messages and passes them along. He isn't managing anything or even doing anything that a 10 year old couldn't do. 
A 10 year old can’t talk to the Governor of Washington State. He’s a middle man, so the professionals can focus on what they’re doing and if they need something they can ask their boss Pence. If there are proposals by healthcare officials he can relay them state officials etc. You can’t have random doctors be calling governors. It would be a clusterfuck. 

They are criticizing him for mismanagement of a crisis. That is a very good reason. 
How so? Appointing Mike Pence somtheres effective communication between the federal government and state government is mismanagement?

umm no. Democrats didn't agree to the cuts, that is why they didn't happen. It was trump and his lapdog republicans in congress thought it was a good idea to cut funding to all the agencies we need to protect us. 
False. Republicans changed the proposal by the executive like the Congress always does. Both sides supported it. In fact most of the Presidents proposal never even goes in the final budget.

I know, he would rather them die locked on a boat. He is such a compasionate man. 
Why would you willingly import a virus into the US? That’s exactly what we’re trying to prevent lol.

It wasn't the CDC that was the problem. It was employees of the department of health. But if resources were being managed effectively, that would never have happened. Trump, and his administration, are managing the response to this crisis. It is their ineptitude that caused government employees to not be trained or provided protective equipment. 
That has nothing to do with Trump. That’s on the bureaucracy. They have enough resources. The President can’t micromanage all of them, that’s not his job. This is exactly why Republicans advocate for a smaller government, so mistakes like these are limited.
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The link is the New York Times. The kings of fake news, currently being sued for libel by Trump in a court of law.
#22
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Even if the coronavirus is not especially lethal, other characteristics of the virus—such as how easily it is transmitted from person to person—are still unknown, fueling fear and even panic. 

As of Feb. 28, 2020, the flu is showing much more of an impact on Americans than COVID-19.

COVID-19: Approximately 2,871 deaths reported worldwide; 0 deaths in the U.S., as of Feb. 28, 2020.
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

so yeah bfd

#23
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@TheDredPriateRoberts
The irony of the entire virus event is that the well-known best defense against the flu besides basic hygiene is making sure your body is healthy and your immune system is ready.

By CHOOSING TO glue your fat nose to the TV screen and waste energy trembling in fear at the latest CNN "report", you are raising your cortisol and stress levels to a very unhealthy level, making yourself a prime candidate for a flu fatality.

TDS isn't just a fashion statement, it's actually physically detrimental to your body.
#24
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#1 preventable disease....obesity
just learned a new word (from the wife actually) diaobesity lol like we need more words for the obvious

funny video of AOC giving advice about hand washing etc, as she is touching her face and hair lol, typical leftist do as I say......

masks aren't useful enough to bother with, yet everyone ran out to buy them, knee jerk reactions based on ignorance, go figure.

when everything else is going pretty well you are left with just making up a crisis. 

now that people are FINALLY waking up to what the media actually is and does their viewership is probably tanking, best thing for them is a real pandemic.  No one watching news for good news or feel good stories, it's very much the opposite.  When there aren't any catastrophes, wars etc you have to make shit up.