Vote Count
drafterman- [1/7] Bullish
oromagi- [1/7] PF4R
VTNL- [1/7] Drafter
iLikePie5- [1/7] oromagi
iLikePie5- [1/7] oromagi
Toaster- [2/7] Singularity, Lunatic
15hrs
South Park Mafia DP1
Posts
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Total:
349
15hrs
Going by character claims, Mr. Garrison and Cartman are most scummy.
Going by role claims Cartman as COP (& claiming COP right off) are scummiest, followed by Stan as DREAMER
Going by gameplay, Lunatic for incompetently outing JOAT with this popcorn bs.
Going by policy, irontoaster for inactivity.
With time running out, I will wagon the toaster
UNVOTE
VTL irontoaster
Vote Count
drafterman- [1/7] Bullish
oromagi- [1/7] PF4R
VTNL- [1/7] Drafter
Toaster- [3/7] Singularity, Lunatic, oromagi
UNVOTE
VTL irontoaster
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@Bullish
Here's the position I'm coming from.
By the very nature of mafia, town's wincon and scum's wincon are mutually exclusive. In order for town to win, mafia must lose, and vice versa. I don't know if there is a third party in this game, but for the sake of simplicity (also because I've rarely seen third parties in these types of mafia games), I'm going to assume that there are only town and scum.
When a game starts out, there are generally more town then scum (though there have been exceptions). That is, the ratio of town to scum is generally higher than 1:1. For this game (assuming there are 3 mafia), the ratio is 4:1.
If I am scum, then I would win if the ratio is 1:1 or lower. I would want there to be less town, so that I would get closer to winning. I would want the ratio to get lower so that it ultimately reaches or goes below 1:1. The closer I get to this ratio, the closer I am to winning.
If I am town, then I would want the opposite of scum. The closer scum gets to winning, the closer I get to losing. So if scum want the ratio to be low, then I would want the ratio to be as high as possible.
Now let's consider DP1 and NP1, the phases when we have the least amount of information available to us. This logic assumes that we don't have much (or any) major information (like scumslips) to tell us who is scum and who is town. Let's focus on NP1 first, since that is more straightforward.
During NP1, unless scum is RB'd, AFK, or willingly chooses to waive the NK, there will be the death of at least one town (most of the time it is one, but not always). For the sake of simplicity, let's assume that it's just one townie that will die in NP1. NP1 will, in most instances, lower the ratio, and thus favour scum.
Now let's think about DP1. Given that we don't have enough info to make a conclusive decision about anyone, the lynch will most likely be probabilistic. Since there are more town than scum, that would mean that we more likely hit town than scum. For this game, since there are 9 townies and 3 scum, there would be a 25% chance of hitting scum and a 75% chance of hitting townies. That is, there is a 25% chance to increase the ratio, and a 75% chance to decrease it. With this setup, a lynch would favour town 25% of the time and scum 75% of the time. A 25% chance for the ratio to be 9:2 and a 75% chance for it to be 8:3. With NP1, this will go to 8:2 or 7:3.
If we decide to VTNL DP1, then there will only be one townie that dies. The ratio will become 8:3.
Now we have three ratios to compare. To prepare these ratios for the math, let's turn these ratios into fractions.
VTL (hit scum) - 8:2 = 8/2 = 4
VTL (hit town) - 7:3 = 7/3
VTNL - 8:3 = 8/3
We also need to take their probabilities into account. Since there is a 100% chance for the VTNL ratio to be 8/3 (in our simplified model), we can make the probability multiplier for it 1. Now let's do the calculations:
VTL (hit scum) - 4 * 1/4 = 1
VTL (hit town) - 7/3 * 3/4 = 7/4 = 1.75
VTNL - 8/3 * 1 = 8/3 = 2.6666...
Now, as town, I would want the highest number. Since VTNL yields the highest number, in the absence of major information, it would make the most sense as town to VTNL for DP1.
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@Lunatic
I just read JARCOM DP1 and his play is totally different! In that game he early pressures and proactively interacts with other players to get reads. This game the most substantive thing he's done is rehash the Water fluff business, which as far as I'm concerned is no longer relevant.Drafter hasn't played a whole lot differently so far than he has in other games
tunnel vision
I was afraid you were going to say that. I'm not TVing, I started this game by calling 3 people scum, and I'm going after 1 of them because he happens to continue to be scummy. In fact I called you scum, then stopped.
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@Vader
How long is there left in DP?
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@Vader
Oh wait nvm it ends at 10AM PST.
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@PressF4Respect
bruh by your own math, you have to add the VTL (hit scum) and VTL (hit town), which would be 1 + 1.75 = 2.75, which is greater than 2.67
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@PressF4Respect
Also you're ignoring the fact that you as town would know 100% that you yourself is town, which makes the rest of the lynch pool more in your favor. So instead of 1/4 and 3/4 for hitting scum/town, it's 3/11 and 8/11.
Trust me bruh I'm career positive on blackjack and poker.
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@Bullish
Well most of that 'pressure' was RVS, and then he spent the rest of the phase defending himself for supa. The lynch of supa was out of self preservation based on Majority lynch mechanics rather than aggressiveness. I agree the water fluff stuff is a dead horse.I just read JARCOM DP1 and his play is totally different! In that game he early pressures and proactively interacts with other players to get reads. This game the most substantive thing he's done is rehash the Water fluff business, which as far as I'm concerned is no longer relevant.
I was afraid you were going to say that. I'm not TVing, I started this game by calling 3 people scum, and I'm going after 1 of them because he happens to continue to be scummy. In fact I called you scum, then stopped.
I just don't see it I guess, I've read your reasoning, and it feels like how I commonly act when I am town and scum read someone passionately, so I do have a town read on you. The only things I find particularly odd about drafter atm is 1. His character claim is a bit wierd, but having played in supas quick fire recently I know he does his roles wierd sometimes, and 2. Him wanting to no lynch, given he usually advocates lynching DP1 from what I recall. I think I even had an argument with him on DDO a while back that involved him trying to prove statistically that lynching DP1 is better than no lynching. So that's the biggest point I think there is against him so far, but even that was a long time ago and chances are his ideals on that subject have changed.
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@oromagi
I didn't ask anyone to role claim. I was asking for characters only. I am just as baffled as you are that everyone is role claiming.Going by gameplay, Lunatic for incompetently outing JOAT with this popcorn bs.
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@Lunatic
That's actually major sus and I was just going to bring that up.he usually advocates lynching DP1 from what I recall
chances are his ideals on that subject have changed
If we're playing chances then we should lynch him, cause that's how mafia is.
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@Singularity
Not sure if I am supposed to full claim or not. I am a JOAT. 2x Doctor and 2x watcher
I guess you are new so I won't be too harsh on this, but if you are actually town, you are likely a target tonight. Not sure if the mod will let you protect yourself, but I would juggle the protection randomly between yourself, Speed, and GP.
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@Bullish
I can almost bite, but after the last game I really don't want toaster to skate free. No way I can convince you to vote toaster this day phase, maybe we can pressure drafter further DP2? Might be a bit more to go on then and I feel more confident about it. Toaster literally has done nothing this phase.
I'm sorry, been busy these past days but nothing but downtime coming up after new years. I am Towelie.
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@Bullish
bruh by your own math, you have to add the VTL (hit scum) and VTL (hit town), which would be 1 + 1.75 = 2.75, which is greater than 2.67
Why would you add them together? If you lynch, you would EITHER hit scum OR hit town.
Also you're ignoring the fact that you as town would know 100% that you yourself is town, which makes the rest of the lynch pool more in your favor. So instead of 1/4 and 3/4 for hitting scum/town, it's 3/11 and 8/11.
If we redo the math with those numbers, we would get:
VTL (hit scum) - 4 * 3/11 = 12/11 = 1.0909...
VTL (hit town) - 7/3 * 8/11 = 56/33 = 1.6969...
VTNL - 8/3 * 1 = 8/3 = 2.6666...
VTNL is still the most favourable option.
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@PressF4Respect
Why would you add them together? If you lynch, you would EITHER hit scum OR hit town.
Are you fucking serious, that's the whole point, hitting scum or town is mutually exclusive, so you have to add them together. If you VTL, the probablity of hitting scum is 1/4, town is 3/4. If you VTNL, the probability of 8:3 next DP is 1.
1/4 + 3/4 is 1. You're comparing 2 scalars the underlying ratio has to be 1:1.
Towelie = TP
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@Bullish
I can see why you'd think that. I wouldn't even blame you for lynching me. I am however, Vanilla Town.
Apparently I'm the co owner of Tegredy Farms, if that meshes with anyone else's role.
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@irontoaster
I can see why you'd think that. I wouldn't even blame you for lynching me. I am however, Vanilla Town.
I don't see why he would think that lol. Why would you?
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@irontoaster
That would be randyApparently I'm the co owner of Tegredy Farms, if that meshes with anyone else's role.
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@Bullish
VTL DRAFTER
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@Greyparrot
Can I get a hell yeah brother
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@Bullish
I'm dead tomorrow anyway so pressure water tomorrow.
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@Bullish
I did some research and
holy shit you might actually be right
Time to move onto drafter I guess
VTL Drafter
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@irontoaster
Who are you pop Corning to?