Virt's Mafia DP 4

Author: David

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#1
David
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LYNCHED LAST DP

WaterPhoenix- Vanilla town

DIED IN THE NIGHT

Lunatic - Town Vig

GRAVEYARD

Pie - Vanilla
Speed - Vanilla
Oro  - Vanilla
Drafter - Vanilla
Warren - Mafia   
Grey - Vanilla
Lunatic - Vig


LIVING PLAYERS


1. PressF4Respect
2. Ragnar
3. Drafter (SupaDudz)

With 3 players alive, it takes 3 to lynch
TODAY IS LYLO!!! TOWN MUST LYNCH CORRECTLY OR THEY WILL LOSE THE GAME

Happy day phase!



#2
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So anyone understand why Water hammered himself?
#3
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The only lead we really have is Warren's behavior. Time to reread some DPs
#4
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@Barney
Temporary insanity
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#5
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Official Vote Count

Not Voting (3/3): press, drafter, ragnar

WARNING: TODAY IS LYLO! TOWN MUST LYNCH CORRECTLY.
#6
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@David
We clearly just lynched this "not voting" guy. Gg
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#7
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@drafterman
Good point. 

Not voting was lynched! He was...not in the game! 
#8
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Going over DP1:


lol
#9
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Okay,  DP1 analysis, specifically looking at Press, Ragnar, and warren

Mostly has to deal with Ragnar's DP1 plan. Press relatively inactive (per usual), warren very critical of Ragnar pushing his lynch.

Question is, was warren trying to bus Ragnar or engineer for a mislynch. With a 2 scum game this large, I am skeptical of a bus on DP1, seems more - to me - like trying to spin Ragnar's plan as a reason for a mislynch.

Additionally, I had press as being more scum than Ragnar.

On to DP2...
#10
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However, NP1, ragnar was convinced speed was vig and would target him. Maybe, if mafia, he thought he could forstall that by Nking Speed? Or maybe mafia Nk'd speed to frame Ragnar?
#11
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Okay, DP2 analysis, a lot of warren trying to redirect the pressure on Grey onto Ragnar. If a bus, this is a VERY dedicated bus.

Also, I see what Grey was talking about with Press, "Town Vanilla."

Both were on the grey lynch though warren conspicuously avoided it (probably why Lunatic vigged him)
#12
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Okay, so, warren was either performing a very dedicated bus onto Ragnar... or he was consistently trying to spin Ragnar's logic about certain things into a mislynch.

Overall, I read Ragnar as being quite on the level and Press lurking until he gains suspicion.
#13
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Something about this warren/Ragnar interaction that just doesn't sit well with me. I would expect mafia to be more... opportunistic rather than focusing on someone across multiple DPs.

#14
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But it could have all been contrived to create town cred for the other if one died and flipped maf.
#15
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@Barney
Are you maf?
#16
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@PressF4Respect
Are  you maf?
#17
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@drafterman
Thanks for the analysis. No I'm not mafia, but without a lie detector my word doesn't prove anything.

I just finished handling some site moderation issues. I'll get re-reading the previous days shortly.
#18
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@Barney
Remember in analyzing my behavior you're looking at SupaDudz.
#19
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Finished an analysis of DP1, I'll share later, but so far nothing conclusive... However, I need to go walk and feed dogs for a friend. I'll try to tackle the remaining days when I get back.

I wonder if I can systematize a search to find interactions between each set of users.
#20
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Upgraded Graveyard:
Pie - Vanilla - DP1 - Lynched (Oro, Supa, Drafter, Ragnar, Grey, Lunatic)
Speed - Vanilla - NP1 - Killed by vig
Oro  - Vanilla - NP1 - Killed by Mafia
Grey - Vanilla - DP2 - Lynched (Lunatic, Drafter, Supa, Press, Ragnar)
Drafter - Vanilla - NP2 - Killed by Mafia
Warren - Mafia - NP2 - Killed by vig
Water - Vanilla - DP3 - Lynched (Water, Drafter, Lunatic)
Lunatic - Vig - NP3 - Killed by Mafia

Yes, I am of course assuming both that the Vig was truthful on his kill claims, and that he did not get depressed...
#21
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@David
@drafterman
@PressF4Respect
DP1:
Kinda weird re-reading these, as the hindsight messes with how it flows. Also weird reading Supadudz and Drafter as the same person, but also as not the same person. Like I want to ask Supa why he did this or that, but Drafter can only make an informed guess at his motivations (I'm finding some of the interaction between him and Speed very interesting).

So day 1 Warren starts posting at #66 (2nd the last to show; feels a bit nice that I almost had scum in my random net). At post #81 I feel a bit of pressure from Press to go through with VTLing Water (last to show).
At the same time, while I want to ignore it, Grey keeps vouching for Supa...
I still don't buy the validity of Pie's reasoning against Press at #291
Supa made me wonder if he might be the vig at #303 (insisting there's no way the Mafia would kill anyone but Speed if they have a brain... just seems more like town trying to peer pressure mafia into limiting the damage), then to make a weird statement at #317 when during the previous game I played with him this was confirmed and reconfirmed; yes, vig and mafia can shoot each other, both kills will occur (initially, this made me really think he was the vig trying to cover it, but now Lunatic is the confirmed vig... I'm confused what that was about).


DP2:
The interaction between Grey and Lunatic at the start is neat to re-read (so many insults without purpose...). I feel shameful for how the day ended, but glad I delayed the mislynch (#64); out of curiosity, was my questioning killing Grey really suspicious as Warren said, or was he just picking on me as a new player? Either way, I don't see how I was pulling a counterwagon, when I offered no votes. It later got Supa to unvote, which aborted the thing... After a lot of back and forth, it gets under way again. At #196 Supa tags me and others to encourage VTLing Grey. At #198 Press joins with some analysis. At #204 I VTL (technically the hammer). At #212 Warren shifts blame to me and Press (while apparently also outing himself to Lunatic). Starting at #222 the Supa/Warren conversation picks up...


DP3:
Guess it's just Supa and Press to look at now... The day ended in 6 hours, during which I did not manage to post anything.
Lets see Supa calls me an L-1 Pusher (I'm assuming a sports term?), gets into a fight with Water during which he focuses a lot on that I was the hammer on Grey. #45 Supa goes through a personality shift and leans town on both Press and I, and swiftly repeats it at #47... 
Press gets on at #54 and does some theory analysis.


Conclusion:
Supa
  • If scum: Tried to get Speed to shoot me. Incredibly well coordinated. Toward the end he leans town on both Press and I, then kills Lunatic. By this logic, Press and I should both vote against him...
  • If town: Tried to get Speed to shoot me. Possibly tried to mis-identity himself as Vig to me in case I was scum?
Press
  • If scum: A lot of lurking. Tried to get me to VTL Water. Pie detects him in DP1 based on a lucky guess, he still doesn't join in VTLing Pie (because he knew Pie was innocent and it would look bad? Or just just AFK?). Warren tried to assign blame to him for camouflage?
  • If town: A lot of lurking. Tried to get me to VTL Water. Warren tried to assign blame to him for future mislynch.

So there's a few reasons. I don't see enough from Press to think scum, but I've seen enough from Supa to firmly think town. I can't envision his actions quite fitting with knowing who is really naughty or nice. Press, being a mostly inactive unknown quantity, I'm open to the possibility...


VTL PressF4Respect
#22
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@David
Gonna have to go with Press. If Ragnar is scum he deserves it just for his effort.

vtl press
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#23
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Press was lynched! He was...well, you just got to wait for the endgame to find out!