Survive The Killer Mafia DP1

Author: Mharman

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Mharman
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From the sign-ups thread:

The will be one Mafia Roleblocker, one mafia bus driver, Two serial killers, one town roleblocker, one town doctor, and six Survivors. Town wins when all mafioso and serial killers are killed. Mafia wins when all town and serial killers are dead. A serial killer wins by killing all three targets. Survivors win by being alive when mafia meets their objective, town meets their objective, or all living serial killers have met their objective. Since this is new concept, I will give each faction one piece of advice.

Town: Mafia doesn’t know who is a townie and who is a survivor. Try to blend in as survivors. Don’t reveal you are town.

Mafia: Use your bus driver to place townies in harm’s way of the serial killers.

Serial Killers: Be aware of the bus driver. Choose your kill order wisely.

Survivors: Band together.

1. Water
2. Drafterman
3. PressF
4. Speed
5. Disc
6. Pie
7. Supa
8. Arose
9. Oromagi
10. Sir
11. Greyparrot 
12. Avoid

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch. Someone please get everyone in here, I am busy.
drafterman
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AROSE hasn't posted yet. Low activity, clearly he's scum.

VTL AROSE
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/s, for those that need it.
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Unvote

Given this set up and mechanics, I'm not exactly sure what the way forward should be. Town and Mafia both want to hide from the SKs. It's in everyone's best interest to just claim Survivor.



Discipulus_Didicit
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I am a survivor.

Not sure whether to team with the SKs or the mafia.

(Sorry town but you can't NK me so I am not too worried about your well-being, you're on your own glhf).
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In fact I think I'll just start town hunting now. I'll decide who to buddy with after NP1 deaths are shown.

VTL PressF4

Gimmie dat claim boi.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Town can lynch you on principle? Also, siding against the SK's and Mafia means you reduce the number of kills per night which increases odds of survival.

That said, I'm sure there is a game breaking combo in here somewhere. If all the survivors sided with one party, then that party autowins.
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@Mharman
A serial killer wins by killing all three targets.
What are the three targets SK must kill?


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A salaam waaley kum brothers
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@drafterman
Town can lynch you on principle?

Only if the survivors let them. Town has less than 30% of the votes needed for a lunch even if they did know who was on their team, which I assume they don't.
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@Discipulus_Didicit
My understanding is that the Survivors don't win or lose as a team, you win or lose individually. Survivors have no incentive to protect or kill any other survivor unless they pose a threat. I would say that deliberately going after the protective roles and siding with the killing roles puts all survivors in danger.
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I’m a survivor. 

This is definitely a wired setup. I think we (survivors + maf) should be more concerned about SKs, since they are the ones that could eliminate us.
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@drafterman
That said, I'm sure there is a game breaking combo in here somewhere. If all the survivors sided with one party, then that party autowins.

Well if all the survivors say they side with an SK but don't know who the SKs are then the fact that there are 2 SKs that are enemies of each other complicates that. On the other hand if they say they side with the mafia it doesn't matter to the survivors that you don't know who they are because at least they know who each other are, however that puts you in the sights of two SK guns as opposed to the one mafia gun pointed at you if you claim to be pro-SK.

Add to that the lynches that are likely to kill survivors suspected of being in whatever team the survivors don't all pledge for (in your hypothetical scenario where they all pledge for the same team) and it seems impossible to break the game just yet. We will need to see who dies tonight first.
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Are the SKs enemies of each other?

That survivors can win when "all living serial killers have met their objective" implies that more than one SK can win.
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My understanding is that the Survivors don't win or lose as a team, you win or lose individually.

Correct. Don't get lynched or shot and you win.

Survivors have no incentive to protect or kill any other survivor unless they pose a threat. I would say that deliberately going after the protective roles and siding with the killing roles puts all survivors in danger.

Smart thing for the doc to do would be to self protect if possible and waive their action if not. They have a 200% larger chance of randomly protecting scum than their teammate at the moment.
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@drafterman
Are the SKs enemies of each other?

That survivors can win when "all living serial killers have met their objective" implies that more than one SK can win.

I doubt they have the same objective. Even if they don't have to kill each other I doubt they can joint win with each other, just the survivors that happen to still be alive when they do whatever they need to do.
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Pushing lynches in general is going to be difficult without tipping your hand as to what affiliation you are.
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VTNL
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@drafterman
Pushing lynches in general is going to be difficult without tipping your hand as to what affiliation you are.

This makes me think you have an affiliation...

Unvote vtl drafterman
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@Discipulus_Didicit
Everyone has an affiliation.
Mharman
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@drafterman
I gave each SK two different targets. I decided three was too difficult, with all the chaos.
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Ah, so each SK has two specific individuals they have to kill. Hm.
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Incentive to lynch just hoping to get one of the SKs, then.

Unvote.

But I see nothing better than to random lynch.
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ATTENTION: once a serial killer can no longer meet their objective, or has already met their objective, they will forfeit their ability to kill. Forgot to mention that.
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@Mharman
Does it count if their target is killed by another party, or is lynched?
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I assume not
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So, to recap:

Town (doc + RB) wants to kill SKs and Mafia. Doesn't care about Survivors.
Mafia (RB + BD) wants to kill SKs and Town. Doesn't care about Survivors.
SKs each want to kill two specific players themselves, doesn't care about anyone else.
Survivors just need to live and avoid being NK'd and lynched.
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@drafterman
If a serial killer’s Target is killed by any other means, the serial killer cannot meet their objective. In any situation when a serial killer’s Target is targeted by the serial killer and someone else at the same time, it will still count towards the serial killer’s objective.
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I assume SK's know their targets identity so can just directly kill them each night. So not only is there incentive to lynch hoping to get an SK, there is incentive to lynch hoping you kill an SK target as well.

Banking on doc protections, role blocks or bus drivers seems like a bad gamble.

Mharman
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The reason for a serial killer forfeiting their kill power is to prevent them from using it for grudge kills once they have already met their objective, or cannot do so.