Office Mafia Endgame

Author: warren42

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#1
warren42
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Mafia wins!

Town Roles
  • GP: You are Jim Halpert, everyone’s favorite salesman. You are a vanilla townie. You can contribute to the game with your voice and your vote. You win with the town.
  • Lunatic: You are Andy Bernard, the Stamford transfer. He went to Cornell, ever heard of it? You are vanilla; you can contribute to the game with your voice and your vote. You win with the town.
  • Drafter: You are Phyllis Lapin, the friendly saleswoman. You are vanilla; you can contribute to the game with your voice and your vote. You win with the town.
  • Press: You are Dwight Schrute. You are one of the top salesmen, the assistant to the regional manager, and a volunteer sheriff’s deputy. As such, you are the cop. Each night, you can choose a player to investigate, and find out if they are guilty or innocent. You win with the town.
  • Airmax: You are Toby Flenderson (sorry) and as such you are the hated vanilla townie, meaning that it takes one fewer vote to lynch you. This will not be displayed in the vote count. (For example, D1 it will still say x/7 votes when for you it will take 6.), but if you're at LYLO the hated modifier will drop. (So the last mafia won't just be able to kill you immediately) You can contribute to the game with your voice and your vote. You win with the town.
  • Oro: You are Pam Beesly (and later Halpert). You start as a receptionist. Since you keep track of everything for Michael (and everyone else) you are the watcher. Each night you can target another player and learn who (if anyone) visited them.
  • Wylted: You are Michael Scott, the incompetent Regional Manager of Dunder Mifflin Scranton. You spend the majority of your day paying attention to what others are doing instead of what you’re doing. As such, you are the tracker. Each night you can target someone and learn who they visited (if anyone). You win with the town.
  • Water: You are Kevin Malone, the dumb but funny accountant. You are vanilla; you can contribute to the game with your voice and your vote. You win with the town.
  • Pie: You are Creed Bratton, the batshit crazy resident criminal. Nobody really knows much about you. Are you even actually Creed Bratton? At one point you implied that you might have killed the real Creed and stolen his identity. As such, you are the one-shot vigilante. On any one night, you can shoot another player. You win with the town.
  • AROSE: You are Ryan Howard, the temp turned wonderkid turned disgraced executive. You are vanilla; you can contribute to the game with your voice and your vote. You win with the town.
Mafia Roles
  • Supa: You are Darryl, the head of the warehouse. You have the final say on what goes on in the warehouse. As such, you’re the roleblocker. Each night you can select a player. If they have a night action, it will fail.
  • Speed: You are Roy, Pam’s former long-term fiancé. You are one of the warehouse employees who appears the most in the show. You were always suspicious of Jim and Pam. As a result, you’re the role cop. Each night you can select a player and learn their role, if they have one.
  • SirAnon: You are Lonnie, one of the familiar faces around the warehouse. You never really get developed much, which means people often forget about you. You can do your work in the background. You are the ninja. If you carry out the night kill it will be unable to be tracked or watched. You win with the Mafia

Night Actions
  • N1- Pie waived, Press cop Water, Oro watch drafter, Wylted track AROSE. Supa killed Pie and blocked GP. Speed rolecop drafter
  • N2- Press cop max, Oro watch Grey, Wyted track Grey. Speed kill water rolecop max
  • N3- Press cop lunatic, oro watch press, wylted track lunatic, speed kill wylted
  • N4- Press cop Grey, oro watch press, speed kill oro
  • N5- Press cop speed, speed kill press
  • N6- Speed kill GP

Feedback
Primary issue was I totally fucked up  Oro's results not once but twice. You can take it to the bank that if I use a watcher again I will be incredibly careful to get the results right.

I also didn't originally tell max about the removal of hated-ness at first. I thought that was something that was assumed, but eventually realized I should clarify. I did so on 11/8, so the knowledge was in max's hands with plenty of time before LYLO, but it should've been even sooner.

Speed played very well, nobody (including spectators) expected him.
#2
Lunatic
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Why did you assume hated ness goes away in final dp? What other game did you see that in?
#3
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Hah! I get to post the first wall of text!

Victory is sweet, especially in the form of an epic comeback.

So what happened in this game that made a perfect start for town go completely off the tracks?

DP1:
I made a noob mistake by claiming vanilla with only 1-2 votes on me,and received exactly what I deserved. However, I was able to defend myself for 30+ pages before the inevitable consequences of my foolishness caught up with me. While I could not save myself, my defense did something with unpredictable consequences: it sold Lunatic on my innocence. Frankly, the case against me was weak. But as seven voters correctly recognized, it was still the best case available. But before that could happen, Lunatic launched a campaign to lynch A-R-O-S-E based on some legitimate but shaky behavioral analysis. This proved to have dire consequences for town.
NP1: ILikePie was killed. He had to die because his top three scum reads were myself, Supa, and Speed. He was right for the wrong reasons, but it wouldn’t save us simply because we got lynched for the wrong reasons.

DP2:
At the beginning of this DP, it looked like town was about to descend into chaos when, to the collective despair and horror of us mafia, Supa followed in my footsteps by making a horrible blunder. Once again, the inevitable happened. But once again, it did not end before Lunatic again shot himself in the foot by VTLing Supa after he was already lynched.
NP2: WaterPhoenix had been confirmed as town by PressF, so he had to die. At this point, the mood in the mafia chat was pretty low.

DP3:
Finally,the tensions within the town that had been simmering were unleashed. Since Lunatic had twice shot himself in the foot with the Arose campaign and the late VTL, he was nearly mislynched in an ugly dogfight with Wylted and drafterman. The amount of tunneling in this and all subsequent rounds was unbelievable. Drafter had launched himself into a kamikaze attack against Lunatic, making himself look scummy and leading to his own lynch.
NP3:
Since Wylted, as a tracker, was essentially a cop, he had to die.

DP4:
What happened here, town? A no lynch? Participation is not optional if you want to win.
NP4: Oromagi had to be killed because we couldn’t take the risk that he was watching when we killed the cop.

DP5:
Again,you do have to participate…
NP5:PressF had to die because he was the cop.

DP6:
At least town put some thought into the VTNL. Given that Airmax wasn’t hated at LYLO, this was the best possible option. However, town didn’t know that.
NP6:
GP had to go because, if anyone had bothered to look, Wylted had tracked him and town-confirmed him several days earlier. Also, since Lunatic didn’t know that max wasn’t hated at LYLO, we figured it would easy to persuade him to VTL max. In fact, he had already convinced himself (although, given the info he had, it was by far his best choice).

DP7:
Largely self-explanatory. However, it probably would have been smart to wait for Airmax to give a defense of himself. It probably would have made no difference in the end, but it would have increased town’s chances.

Players:

Wylted, drafter, GP: I don’t mean to be rude, but what were you thinking?You can never have 100% certainty based purely on behavior.

PressF4Respect: That role claim in DP1 was absolutely brilliant. It looked exactly like an inept PGO trying to trick us into Nking him. We didn’t figure it out till DP3, and then we had to kill Wylted and Oromagi first. You just got unlucky that you never copped Speed until it was too late. Also, I must congratulate you for not losing your mind. You were a voice of reason. However, you largely stayed silent. Activity is good,especially when everyone else is tunneling.

Lunatic: Lunatic was the tragic hero of the town. Throughout the whole game,he was logical and genuinely scum-hunting. However, he shot himself inthe foot early on with the Arose campaign, the late VTL, and the mudslinging with Wylted and drafter. In the last few rounds, he figured out a brilliant plan to catch the last scum. It was his best option. But in a sickening irony, it was also his doom, because he was missing the vital info that Max wasn’t hated at LYLO.

Airmax: When did you know that you weren’t hated at LYLO, and why didn’t you say so when you knew?

Everyone else: While you can get away with inactivity in DP1 when 6 players rack up 30+ pages, you can’t get away with it when those players are dead. You have to be active to win.

TownMVP: Lunatic, with PressF second.

MafiaMVP: Speed. (You didn’t think I would pick an idiot who claimed vanilla or a guy who misread a PM and got himself lynched, did you?)
Seriously though, Speed’s play was excellent throughout the game.

Overall, I think the balance was impossible to determine since two mafia, both with powerful roles, died in the first round. Both sides were highly or even over-powered.

It was unbalanced in a rather bizarre way. The power roles coincided with some of the most active players, so when they were killed, there were was only one really active player left.
#4
SirAnonymous
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oro watch press
I'm really glad Speed decided to kill oro first.


#5
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Press cop speed, speed kill press
That was in the nick of time.


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#6
warren42
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@Lunatic
I’ve seen other games drop the popular status at MYLO/LYLO as the person would become impossible to lynch. For the same reason, a hated would be immediately lynched, like you theorized Max would be. I think this would be broken at LYLO.
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#7
warren42
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My next game will probably be an open setup.
#8
SirAnonymous
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@warren42
What's an open set-up?
#9
SirAnonymous
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@warren42
(including spectators)
Can you tell us who and why they didn't suspect him, and who they suspected instead?


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#10
warren42
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@SirAnonymous
The full list of roles will be openly known. I will post it in the signups.

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#11
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@SirAnonymous
I’d prefer to leave that up to them if they want to.
#12
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@warren42
The full list of roles will be openly known. I will post it in the signups.
That sounds like a big plus and minus. I think I prefer the closed setup, but I can see how that could be good. It would just be different game dynamic.


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#13
warren42
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@SirAnonymous
I usually prefer closed also
#14
SirAnonymous
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I'm curious to see what everyone else thought. I want to hear how completely wrong and stupid my analysis was, and how they would have won if X, Y, and Z had happened instead.
#15
ILikePie5
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@SirAnonymous
He was right for the wrong reasons, but it wouldn’t save us simply because we got lynched for the wrong reasons.

Not really, I caught y’all through slips y’all made. You make seem like they were minuscule and stupid, but that’s what one has to observe and pay attention to
#16
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@ILikePie5
Ok, I looked back at your analysis. You did have the right reasons for me, your reason for Speed was ok, but there were others doing the same thing. I don't know about your reason for Supa because I don't feel like digging up his analysis to see if you described it accurately in your reads. I got lucky enough finding your analysis. I think I have to agree with you, though. You were much more perceptive than other players were.

#17
drafterman
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I've been waiting to say this for a long time.

Speed, you did a fantastic job, especially against those odds. I'm not sure what inspired you to quais-CC, then retract-CC against Press, but that was a rather Townie thing to do. I really don't see Scum doing that kind of thing. And to keep him a live was a very big risk, but I think doing so cast doubt onto his investigations.

Overall you played extraordinarily well. Kudos to you.

For town, I hope you guys learned a valuable lesson:

1. Change in behavior =/= scum. Especially when the person in question only has a couple of games under their belt and has only ever been one affiliation. People can change their behavior for many many different reasons. Yes, affiliation can change behavior. So can role. So can theme. So can not getting enough fiber in your diet. Maybe he had surgery and was on pain killers. Maybe it's mid terms.  Maybe he's been practicing for the big game. You gotta do more leg work than "He play not same, he not town."

2. Bussing is, in fact, rather uncommon. Mafia voting for mafia (when tallying end of day wagons) is rather uncommon. I've been collecting data based on Supa's archives. I know it isn't a lot right now, but I don't feel DDO data applies anymore. Too many new people and the meta is too different. But right now, the base chance of being mafia is around 25%. But if you look at all the wagons so far and pick a vote that was against a mafioso (at the end of the day), the odds it came from a mafioso is around 14%.

3. Claiming last or late isn't a scum indicator. The order in which people claim is, for the most part, random. Yes, scum prefers to claim last, but since claiming is mostly random and at the hands of other people, there is little they can do to force it.
#18
Speedrace
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@Greyparrot
If we had killed Max, would you have still voted lunatic in LYLO?
#19
Speedrace
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@drafterman
Thanks dude!! I'm gonna post why I did everything I did later
#20
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@drafterman
Speed, you did a fantastic job, especially against those odds. I'm not sure what inspired you to quais-CC, then retract-CC against Press, but that was a rather Townie thing to do. I really don't see Scum doing that kind of thing. And to keep him a live was a very big risk, but I think doing so cast doubt onto his investigations.
I think he did that because at first he genuinely thought that PressF was baiting and lying about being a Cop. Speed knew that Mafia had a Ninja but no Godfather/Lawyer/Framer, so it makes sense even as scum to question that out-of-the-blue Cop claim. Plus, he had an awesome fake role claim with the Compulsive Visitor, I assume he had that figured out already when he quasi-CC-ed.

#21
drafterman
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@frenzy
That's fair, but also feeds into it being a good move because it's something he probably would have done as Town anyway and Mafia are usually discouraged from that kind of thing. It was just splendid play all around.
#22
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@frenzy
You're correct in all respects. PressF had us fooled for the first two rounds

#23
SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
When did you guess it was Speed, and who did you suspect before that?
#24
frenzy
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@drafterman
That's fair, but also feeds into it being a good move because it's something he probably would have done as Town anyway and Mafia are usually discouraged from that kind of thing. It was just splendid play all around
I agree. I wasn't trying to take anything away from Speed's play, he certainly had me fooled.

#25
drafterman
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@SirAnonymous
I never guessed it was speed, I had warren tell me because I was itching to know. Speed had me legitimately fooled. At the beginning of DP3 I thought it was Lunatic. After he seemingly placed stock in oro's rather silly theory, I began to FOS him because, from my POV, it looked a scum attempt to leverage one Townie's theory against another to force a myslynch. If you're scum, the only thing better than getting a Townie mislynched is getting another Townie to do it for you.

Oro's theory was objectively silly and an experienced mafia player like Lunatic should have recognized it as such. No one else was picking up on it and I even probably gave it more credit than it was due simply by replying to it at all (but I'm a sucker for that kind of stuff). When Lunatic came in with his "analysis" that continued to build off of it, with all of his misrepresentations of the game, that sealed it for me.

I'll admit, my FOS of him lessened as the DP went on, because his duplicitous and juvenile behavior is identical to behavior that he has exhibited in the past, as Town, but by that point I was too riled up and irritated with his antics I just wanted to see him gone; alive he was just a distraction. Which proved to be true, as he distracted Town all the way to a Mafia victory, flushing a 2 lynch lead down the toilet.

It's hard to say who I would have went after if Lunatic was out of the picture. I really don't operate like that. I look at the information available to me at the time, pick the person most likely to be scum, and push to get them lynched. I generally don't work with giant read lists or put everyone onto a sliding scale. There really isn't a point in trying to figure out the entire scum team DP1; you can only lynch one person a day. Even if you do happen to suspect more than one person, outing all of those suspicions is generally not beneficial.

Hypothetically, say if Lunatic was the NP2 NK target, who would I have went after DP3? I think oro might have been high up on my list. Water would have been alive instead of Lunatic, so the entire DP would have evolved differently and it's hard to say who I would have settled on.
#26
SirAnonymous
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@drafterman
I can't speak for other mafia, but we bussed each other. We were all on each other's lunches (except me because I was lynched first).
#27
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@SirAnonymous
Firstly, simply voting for a Mafia isn't a bus. A bus is actively pushing for another mafioso to get lynched.

Secondly, there was only ever one wagon on a mafia that wasn't yours, and that was Supa. The DP2 situation was kind of forced because it was one vs. the other and he really didn't have a choice. Even then, he made a one-off post about Supa lying and then disappeared for the rest of the DP.

Plugging these numbers into what I have, this game has actually decreased the % chance that a vote on a mafia is from a mafia (down to ~13%)
#28
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@disgusted
Firstly, simply voting for a Mafia isn't a bus. A bus is actively pushing for another mafioso to get lynched.
Ok.
#29
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Let me start off by the fact that I fucked this game up for Speed 100%. I misread what I said and confused what Speed was doing vs what I was doing in the NP chat. Really kinda pissed me off bc I thought I could go on to live, but oh well, mans gotta stop being dude 

I hope town is proud of how shitty they played this game with their bitching and moaning about people and stuff, at this point, no one was gonna win. Activity played a key role in this, and since Cop Press decided to go full blown inactive and kill town by claming a cop but secretly hinting there was a bomb and then not doing anything with it is the biggest you idiot moment

Lunatic shot himself in the foot 2X and then seemed to improve a bit in game, but the cataylst was him voting so early in the night phase. IDGAF if you know the roles and what is going on, you are screwing yourself trying to vote Max within the first 10 posts. You need more evidence than just that “no way his role justifies that.” Then you test voted him!!!! TEST VOTED!!!! If that worked, game over. Not to mention you did the exact same thing you told me as mafia in BM 56.1 on DDO, cause distraction. Your whole play was in all practical sense, distractions to lynch, the reason why AROSE was lynched 

Greyparror. Get your head out of your fucking ass, in a MYLO/LYLO situation, why would you not VTNL vs taking the gambit on Lunatic. Idiotic, pure shit. You were town confirmed in all sense by my fuckery and you did nothing but screw it up for the team and drive mislynches to the ground 

AROSE, I love you man, but get some better reads and play better. You were a detterance for town in this game

Amazing job Speed, fucking terrible job Town

#30
frenzy
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@SirAnonymous

I can't speak for other mafia, but we bussed each other. We were all on each other's lunches (except me because I was lynched first).
To be fair, neither Speed or Supa was actually on your lynch when you died and both of them voted for AROSE when the opportunity presented itself via Lunatic. Frankly, the fact that a known scum(Supa) would have prefered to lynch AROSE over you(other known scum) on DP1 should have given town pause on any future AROSE lynch after Supa's flip.

I also don't think that drafter's trying to convince anyone that mafia would never ever bus. It's just that bussing is usually a suboptimal strategy in role heavy games, so players are going to be naturally disinclined to do it. And this is where Drafter's distinction about what constitutes as bussing is important. Sure, scum may FOS/vote for their teammate as a distancing tactic or when they realisticly have no other choice (Speed on DP2) but it's way less common for scum to purposefully go arounnd (Drafter on DP1) and actively try to convince others to lynch their teammate when there's a competing wagon on someone else.

I mean, honestly, did any of you on the scum team went into any of the DPs with the intention to lynch each other for some sweet town cred? Supa might have been willing to lynch you on DP1 at some point but I feel that was reactionary due to the votes snowballing on you. Basically the key word is context, I think.