The south will give Joe Biden the nomination

Author: Imabench

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Imabench
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I thought about making this a general 'predictions thread' where people can post their theories and outcomes of 2020 electoral stuff, but there was something else I wanted to talk about instead that I didn't want to shove into my primary thread that I update every now and then. 

While on RCP, the site I use to check on primary polls, I found out that the home page only lists the primaries from Iowa through Massachusetts at the top, since those are the first primaries that will actually take place and therefore have substantial influence and importance on the rest of the race.... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Turns out though that the site still collects polling data from other states outside of the first primaries, which you can find in the general ongoing section shown here:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

It was while prowling through this list that I found polls from other states and noticed a remarkable trend, hence leading to the title of this thread. Joe Biden holds such massive leads in the southern states that I am willing to believe he will ultimately win the nomination, due to the size of his lead in these states as well as the size of the states as well. 

The four states I want to highlight are arguably the three most important states in the south that will be voting.... Florida, Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Whlie South Carolina is hardly the largest state in the south, because it's one of the first primaries to be held, it still holds great importance. 

In South Carolina, Biden has regularly averaged around 40% in the three polls that were taken between September and October. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html Both Warren and Sanders in the same polls are hovering only slightly above 15%, meaning that their combined support if one of them dropped out would still be far short of enough to beat Biden in the state..... Regardless of how close or badly Biden might lose in Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada, he can almost certainly bank on a strong win in South Carolina to revamp his campaign and prepare to stay in the race for a long time. 

In Texas, which actually is two states after South Carolina and is fairly early in the primary contest, Biden is somewhere between 25% and 30%.... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-6875.html This normally would make it competitive since Sanders and Warren also poll in that range in some states, but Texas is different because another candidate is standing in the way: Beto O'Rourke, who is polling at around the same rate as Sanders and Warren near 15%.... While Sanders and Warren will do well enough in the early states to hang around in the primary, Beto might not.... Beto only polls around 3% max in national polls and only gets a bump in Texas because it's his home state..... If he falters early in some states, and hard too, he could pull out of the race before Texas comes up to vote.... Even Jeb Bush pulled out right after South Carolina in 2016, and he had a far bigger war chest and name recognition than O'Rourke..... If Beto drops out, his support liekly goes towards Biden. If he tries to stay in, his same supporters may see him doing poorly in earlier states and transfer to Biden anyways. If nothing at all happens, Biden still holds double digit leads over the rest of the competition, and will be able to score a massive haul of delegates by winning the state. 

In Florida, Biden pulled in a whopping 34% in the most recent poll, and topped 40% several months earlier https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-6847.html While Warren has polled better in the state going from 14% to 24%, Sanders has been flatlining at 14%, and did about as shitty as that the last Florida primary in 2016 where Hillary won 64% to 33% when it was just her and Sanders...... Seince Biden polls very well with older voters, Florida being a giant retirement state favors Biden in this contest, meaning that the massive number of delegates to be won in Florida is Biden's to lose, which he likely wont. 

Finally in Georgia, the lead Biden holds in that state mirrors his lead margin in South Carolina. A recent poll showed Biden getting 41% of the vote in the whole state whlie Warren only gets 17% and Sanders falls to 8% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ga/georgia_democratic_primary-6953.html 

The South belongs to Biden, which is remarkably similar to the last Dem Primary between Hillary and Sanders. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries In 2016, Hillary cleaned up in southern states, cleaning up across the board while Sanders struggled. If we assume Georgia and South Carolina are similar to other states nearby such as Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, etc, then we can assume that Biden will clean up in those states given his massive leads he holds in states similar to those ones (Georgia and South Carolina in particular)..... Due to the population size in southern conservative states, Biden's ownership of races in these states could very well deliver him the nomination since other states that swing more liberal could be divided between Sanders, Warren, or even Biden himself if he pulls off a surprise win every now and then. 


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Imabench
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One could also assume that, as Obama's VP, Biden has a very good shot at winning the massive state of Illinois, which is Obama's main home at this point. With Texas, Florida, and Illinois in his pocket, along with a majority of the South, he would only need wins in a handful of other states outside the region such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey (States where Hillary did very well over Sanders https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries ) to win the nomination. 
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@Imabench
Can I ask what your personal opinion on this is? Are you a republican or a democrat? Who do you think is the best nominee and why?

Last time I tried to discuss this with you you began a string of ad hominem attacks. So I would like some context if that is possible. 
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@HistoryBuff
Im operating at like 5% because im tired af so ill make this brief to answer ya:

Political leanings: centrist/moderate democrat. Voted Obama and Hillary in 2012 and 2016. Was open to voting for Kasich or Rubio in 2016, would have considered McCain back in 2008 before he picked Palin as his running mate. 

Best Nominee: While I liked Amy Klobuchar and Tulsi Gabbard the most, they simply have no shot at winning the nomination. Biden is the next closest thing in terms of platform who has a shot at winning, so I currently support him. 
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@Imabench
Thank you for the additional information. 

I don't disagree with large chunks of what you said. if the vote were held today there is a good chance Biden would win. The problem for Biden is that the vote isn't today. He has to get through 4 more months of this. Every time he talks, more people lose interest in him. His platform itself is terrible, but that isn't his primary problem. He is just very clearly not up to running a primary campaign, let alone a general election, and god forbid being president. 

He seems to only have the energy to go for an hour or 2 before he starts getting increasingly nonsensical. He can't remember the names of who he is talking to. For example he has messed up Barack Obama's name several times. He once stumbled for about for 5 or 6 seconds before just saying "my boss".  During the last debate he kept referring to people as "The senator on my left" or "the senator on my right".

When asked about his opinion on a comment he made about reparations, he went on a semi-deranged rant about education, record players, and sending social workers into people's homes. 

He is basically running on 2 main planks.

1) He can beat Trump. But as he goes on crazy rants, it becomes obvious this isn't true. As his poll numbers continue to go down, this argument will collapse entirely. As this image of "the guy who can beat trump" falls away, so will a significant chunk of his support. 

2) He wants to take the country back to the obama era. But the problem is that the obama era is what brought about trump in the 1st place. Making minor changes to a failing system is not what most people want. They don't all agree on what changes they want, but the vast majority of people know that change is needed. 

As more people actually pay attention to the things Biden is saying and not just saying they support him because he was Obama's VP his polls will continue to slide as they have been since pretty much the moment he announced. At the rate he is going, I don't think his current level of support is sustainable. 
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Imabench
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@HistoryBuff
As more people actually pay attention to the things Biden is saying and not just saying they support him because he was Obama's VP his polls will continue to slide
There's two giant things in the way of that happening though which Biden massively benefits from......

The first is that In 2016 for the GOP there was a constant shuffling of standings in the polls because a lot of candidates had similarities to other candidates.... If you wanted a political outsider who would approach things differently, you could pick from Trump, Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson.... If you wanted a super christian conservative candidate, you had ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Mike Fuckabee and Shit Santorum..... If you wanted a moderate who would be a bit bipartisian, you had Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich and Chris Christie..... A lot of candidates bounced back and forth throughout the primary because a lot of candidates were very similar to others and seemingly everyone had a shot at catching lightning in a bottle to become the nominee. 

In the Dem primary though, there are really only 3 who have a shot at winning: Biden, Sanders and Warren..... Since Warren and Sanders are the furthest to the left, the more moderate and centrist faction of the party have ONLY Biden as their option to support, since all the other centrists and moderates poll below 3%...... Hell the reason I support Biden is mainly because Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Kolbuchar dont have a shot at winning the nomination. If either of them did i'd probably be shifting my support between them every other week, but only Biden has a chance at winning the nomination, which is why centrists and moderates will gravitate towards him. 

Its very rare for a massive number of people to all at once shift their political beliefs further to the right or left within a primary cycle. Warren nor Sanders is going to convince a lot of centrist democrats who dont like the idea of Medicare for All or Universal healthcare to suddenly drop their support of Biden and support Warren or Sanders. People will more likely support Biden simply because he -seems- more in line with what their political beliefs are, even if he doesnt explicitly say so

The second thing that shields Biden is the fact that he performs better then either Sanders or Warren in head-to-heads against Trump. Voters in this cycle value a candidate's ability to beat Trump more then valuing candidates who advocate policies they agree with. Because Biden is notably stronger in faceoffs against Trump also causes people to gravitate towards him, and this is in SPITE of the fact that for over 10 years now Biden has been prone to gaffes and questionable remarks. 
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@Imabench
Since Warren and Sanders are the furthest to the left, the more moderate and centrist faction of the party have ONLY Biden as their option to support
Much of the reporting I have seen says that alot of the powers in the democratic party are now pushing for Warren. you can see this in the news coverage of her as well. They have stopped attacking warren and are only attacking Sanders. Warren is being pushed as the compromise candidate. 

only Biden has a chance at winning the nomination, which is why centrists and moderates will gravitate towards him. 
You just hit the nail on the head. Alot of Biden's support rests on the idea that he can win. Very few people actually like him. Very few people are energized by the thought of a Biden Presidency. A chunk of the electorate are willing to hold their nose and vote for him because they think he can win. But his poll numbers are falling. Warren is in 1st place in some of them now and that downward trend for him will likely continue. As it becomes more established that he is no longer the front runner, alot of those people who were parking their vote with him because "he can win" will move to another candidate once it is clear he won't win. He's like a tent with only 2 poles holding it up. If one of those polls starts to fall, it is all coming down. 

Its very rare for a massive number of people to all at once shift their political beliefs further to the right or left within a primary cycle.
Most voters aren't voting based on where the candidate is on the political spectrum. They are voting based on emotion. You can see this in the 2nd choices for candidates. Biden is a right wing candidate. Biden being your 1st choice and Sanders being your 2nd choice makes no sense if you are voting based on platform. If that actually mattered to them then their 2nd choice would have been one the 1%ers I have already forgotten about. But no one does. Political ideology will not keep people supporting Biden as his supports continues to slide. 

The second thing that shields Biden is the fact that he performs better then either Sanders or Warren in head-to-heads against Trump. Voters in this cycle value a candidate's ability to beat Trump more then valuing candidates who advocate policies they agree with.
You are right that this is important, but I disagree with your conclusion. The head to heads show biden with a bit of a lead over sanders. But not a huge one. But as i keep saying, have you actually watched Biden speak? He gets confused about where he is, who he is talking to, what he is supposed to be talking about. Trump would eat him alive on a debate stage and talk circles around him. The current polls show he has a slight edge. The reality of his physical and mental condition says otherwise. You watched a Neo-Liberal (hilary) implode while trying to fight trump. Do you really want to put another Neo-Liberal who is older and less competent up for round 2? He will get eaten alive.

As this gets closer to the actual voting more pressure will be on Biden than ever and i don't think people are going to like what he has to say, assuming they can even understand what he is talking about. 
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Imabench
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I went ahead and filtered out the parts of your response that were either biased opinion or gross over-exaggeration for the sake of keeping the topic somewhat on the rails 

alot of the powers in the democratic party are now pushing for Warren
That might have helped her if she ran in 2016, but its not going to matter this time around since the Dems kneecapped the power that superdelegates have in determining the outcome of events... A lot of them are now required and even mandated to support whoever their state ultimately votes for, which ironically was a rule that was made because Sanders supporters bitched about superdelegates so much in the last primary in 2016.

Political ideology will not keep people supporting Biden as his supports continues to slide. 
The gap between Biden with Sanders/Warren ensures that it will though, and the fact that you label Biden as a 'right wing candidate' proves that... People who are to the center or moderate faction of the party aren't going to leap all the way over to the far left part of the party to support Warren just because Biden isn't perfect. Voters will support an imperfect candidate who is kind of in the neighborhood of policies they support over candidates who clearly and articulately promise policies that they don't agree with... 

Trump would eat him alive on a debate stage and talk circles around him
1 - Trump can barely speak complete sentences, dont make him out to be some sort of master debater when he cant even hold a thought throughout a whole talking point 

2 - When Biden debated Paul Ryan in 2012 as part of the VP debate he was credited to be the decisive winner. Same against Palin in 2008 and you could argue that Palin and Trump have similar debating styles since both of them have brain cells in the single digits. 

3 - Biden has already been in 3 debates now and only really got hammered in the first one before his poll numbers bounced back. He's the most attacked candidate by a far margin out of everyone in the entire field and yet his numbers only slid once before swiftly recovering, testifying to his resilience.... If Biden was 1/10th as incompetent as you make him out to be, he would have already lost all of his support after the first batch of debates and gone the way of Jeb Bush, but he is still in the contest and still leads in 9 out of 10 polls. 

 

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@Imabench
biased opinion or gross over-exaggeration
You keep saying that the things I say are opinion or gross exaggeration, but then you proceed to respond with things that are opinion or gross exaggeration. 

That might have helped her if she ran in 2016, but its not going to matter this time around
Disagree. i understand that super delegates are less likely to play an important role. But being the Neo-Lib "center" candidate is all biden has. If even the democratic establishment doesn't want him that is going to hurt him. Both in the media starting to show him for the train wreck he is, in the lack of endorsement from other dems etc. 

The gap between Biden with Sanders/Warren ensures that it will though, and the fact that you label Biden as a 'right wing candidate' proves that
No it doesn't. I just explained to you why. If you look at people's 2nd choices, they are rarely anywhere close to the ideology of their 1st choice. The majority of the electorate simply doesn't pay close enough attention to see the differences. You or I might look at the policy positions of the candidates and decide which one is the best choice, but most people don't. They have 1 or 2 issues they care about and that determines their vote. It's the same reason why religious people vote for a man who sexually assaults women and has multiple divorces. They only care about abortion. Well informed voters will vote on the policy and ideology of the candidate. The other 85% of people will not. 


Trump can barely speak complete sentences, dont make him out to be some sort of master debater
True. But he is an expert at saying lots of things without saying anything at all. He absolutely crushed the republicans in the primary debates. He crushed hilary too. He is good at spinning things and making innuendo that sounds like it makes sense. If you were to look into it you can see it didn't make sense, but 85% of people won't do that. Biden has a long and very shitty political history. There is alot of very justifiable criticism of his record. The trump team will dig it all up and trump will use it to keep Biden on the defensive. And since much of it is based in fact, the innuendo will hard to fight and it will stick. We've already seen that Biden doesn't do all that well at being on the defensive. Trump will crush him. 

you could argue that Palin and Trump have similar debating styles
The difference is that Trump was able to succeed with it and Palin was not. Also, that was over 10 years ago. As i keep reminding you and you fail to acknowledge, Biden is not as sharp as he used to be. 

his numbers only slid once before swiftly recovering
When Biden announced he was running, he was polling at like 35-40%. He is now polling at 25-30%. He has had a serious decline in support. Elizabeth warren is now polling as the leader in recent polls. Biden hasn't slid as fast as many believed he would, but he is still sliding. 

1/10th as incompetent as you make him out to be, he would have already lost all of his support after the first batch of debates
Clearly not. The media is not showing how incompetent he is. When they play clips on the news they aren't showing his nonsense, they only show the parts where he is coherent. They simultaneously go out of their way to smear people like Yang, Tulsi, Sanders etc. The only way for people to see how bad he is is by watching several hours of debate, which the large majority will not do. But as the media lines up behind warren, hopefully they will be less reticent to point out how bad Biden really is. 
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Imabench
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Went ahead and filtered out the responses that are built on conspiracy theories such as 'the Media will support Warren' and 'The DNC will back Warren' again to keep the conversation at least somewhat sensible. 

 If you look at people's 2nd choices, they are rarely anywhere close to the ideology of their 1st choice.

That's because in this case there aren't many viable choices for moderate centrists outside of Biden..... If Biden were to suddenly drop dead and then his supporters had to pick someone to go against Trump, then their second choice of Warren or Sanders is made simply because they too are the only other viable candidates in the race who have any amount of support north of 8%, and there is actually proof that this is the case.

When Kamala Harris was considered a viable candidate, where she rivaled Sanders and Warren in polls following the first debate, Biden supporters far and away selected Harris as their second option by a 10 point margin over both Sanders and Warren back in July-August. https://www.people-press.org/2019/08/16/most-democrats-are-excited-by-several-2020-candidates-not-just-their-top-choice/. Since Harris was closer to Biden then Sanders or Warren, it made sense that Biden voters would flip to her if Biden suddenly fell off the face of the earth, but now that Harris has slid back into irrelevance, Biden supporters now consider Warren or Sanders just because theyre the only other real options. 

Outside of Biden disappearing into thin air, it's going to be very difficult for candidates on the liberal left to poach voters who are only moderately left, especially since the biggest issues such as healthcare have stark divisions along political leanings of what should be done. Biden is the luckiest candidate with perhaps the easiest path to the nomination since he has effectively cornered the market on being the centrist/moderate candidate. 

Well informed voters will vote on the policy and ideology of the candidate. The other 85% of people will not. 
And that primarily benefits Biden, since a majority of Dem voters care about supporting a candidate who can win, and Biden currently has the best numbers in head-to-head contests against Trump. 

He absolutely crushed the republicans in the primary debates. He crushed hillary too
This is where your ignorant bias and general lack of understanding is showing. 

Polls taken after literally every debate in 2016 indicated that people believed Hillary won, all of them. 
- 1st debate, people believed Hillary won 68% to 32% = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_debates#Reception
- 2nd debate, people believed Hillary won 42% to 28%, the remainder believing it a tie = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_debates#Reception_3
- 3rd debate, people believed Hillary won 43% to 26%, again the remainder considering it a tie = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_debates#Reception_4

The performance in GOP debates by Trump could be in part because of how many candidates were mashed into debates forcing whoever would say the craziest thing to shine and stand out, but in 1 on 1 debates Trump repeatedly failed in beating Hillary, directly contradicting your supposed 'facts' and invalidating a vast chunk of your arguments.  

When Biden announced he was running, he was polling at like 35-40%. He is now polling at 25-30%
And in the 4 to 5 months prior to announcing he was polling at almost the exact same range he is polling at now between 25% to 31%..... The bump up to 40% after announcing he was running you can see clearly came from Sanders supporters since his numbers took an almost identical hit in proportion to Biden's surge.... Once Biden began settling back to his base where it was to begin with, those who dropped Sanders then fueled Warren's rise, in addition to a large chunk of the support Harris once had: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

(Click the MAX button at the bottom to show numbers all the way back to the very earliest days of the race and you can see the trends) 

It's not like Biden started out at 40% and then has been downhill ever since, he simply has a built-in support of 25% to 30% of voters since thats what his campaign averaged, before it spiked following his initial entry into the race. Even now the latest national poll has Biden near 32% and Warren at 21%


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@Imabench
Polls taken after literally every debate in 2016 indicated that people believed Hillary won, all of them.
This depends very much on what you consider to be winning. Trump's goal wasn't to look like a brilliant statesman. It was to slander Hillary. He was able to effectively do that. Trump won by firing up his base and depressing democratic turnout. They saw all the dirt he threw at Hillary, and because much of it was at least somewhat based in reality, alot of it stuck. Biden is just as dirty as Hillary, if not more so. He has a long history of terrible record that Trump will beat him over the head with. Trump just has to convince enough people that Biden is dirty so they don't vote for him. He doesn't have to win over any new voters. 

It's also worth noting that Hilary was alot more coherent and competent that Biden currently is. There is no reason to think he could do as well as she did. 

But I don't see any reason to think this conversation will be any more fruitful. You seem very set on looking only at polling and completely ignoring the reality of the candidate. 

Joe Biden is not up to campaigning. He is consistently disoriented and nonsensical. You might be right and people continue ignoring what he is saying and he wins the primary. But people will actually watch the debates against trump. And Joe has no chance of surviving once the mud starts flying. 

But in my opinion, Joe's weaknesses will continue to erode his support and he will not be the nominee. 
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Imabench
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@HistoryBuff
You seem very set on looking only at polling and completely ignoring the reality of the candidate. 
Translation: "You seem to be looking only at tangible facts and evidence and ignoring my own personal biased opinion" XD

Thats because how a large sample of American society itself feels about particular candidates taken repeatedly and over extensive periods of time tends to be a more accurate reflection of how they are doing then the opinions of a some random wingnut like you who regularly substitutes his own bias and opinion as reality that can and has been repeatedly disproved..... You claim Biden is falling apart and is senile and that the people will see that, the reality is that people who watch the debates thinks he does okay enough to get by and his support is still massive.... You claim that the DNC will pull it out for Warren and act on her behalf, the reality is that the DNC's hands are tied on this due very much in part to the bitching of Sanders supporters who are still salty about 2016....... You claim Trump can wipe the floor with Biden in a debate, previous results from debate performances shows that Biden does pretty decent in 1v1's, and that Trump would struggle wiping his own ass with anything other then a fellow Republican. 




#13
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@Imabench
What do you expect from such redneck types? Of course they dislike Warren, she speaks the social democratic truth.

You are unblocked, by the way.
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I agree
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Imabench
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@RationalMadman
<3
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Imabench
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@Dr.Franklin
Oh hey welcome back
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thx
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@Imabench
Translation: "You seem to be looking only at tangible facts and evidence and ignoring my own personal biased opinion" XD
No translation, you are insisting that we only look at 1 specific piece of information while ignoring other critically important information that you would prefer to ignore. How people feel about a candidate today is an important thing to consider. The characteristics, strengths and weaknesses of a candidate is important to consider when attempting to draw conclusions about how things will proceed.

However you don't seem to want to discuss the candidates at all. You only want to look at polling. And if you want to have a narrow discussion that is not particularly useful, go right ahead. 
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Imabench
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@HistoryBuff
"tRuMp WiLl WiPe ThE fLoOr WiTh BiDeN, vOtErS dOnT lIkE hIm"

(Presents the closest thing to tangible and factual evidence available showing Biden does well in debates, Trump doesnt, and that voters continue to support Biden at massive rates 

"yOu ArE iGnOrInG iNfOrMaTiOn!!!"

You know what, go be a massive retard somewhere else HistoryBuff.... Its utterly pathetic that you refuse to incorporate reality and evidence into your opinions despite being given multiple opportunities to do so all while trying to claim that its others who are ignoring evidence and not your pathetic self. 


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@Imabench
Presents the closest thing to tangible and factual evidence available showing Biden does well in debates
You showed more polls. That is not evidence he did well. That is evidence that people who watched recaps on the news (which don't show his rambling) interpreted it as well. That is exactly what I am talking about. You refuse to talk about the weaknesses of the candidate and go right back to polls. You only seem to be capable of looking at 1 specific metric. So again, if you want to limit discussions to only 1 kind of information while ignoring everything else, you go right ahead. But that is a useless discussion to have. 

you refuse to incorporate reality and evidence into your opinions despite being given multiple opportunities to do so
Taking a page out of trump's book I see. Accuse others of doing the things you are guilty of. 
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@Imabench
this Bernie news has powerful potential to consolidate the left-wing behind Warren who is already ascending.  

Because Biden is not confronting Ukraine head-on, I strongly suspect that there's more there.  I think Ukraine might take Biden and Trump out together, like exchanging Queens.  If Dems are strategic enough to leave Pence in place (he'll pardon Trump but that's fine - there's plenty more charges to bring) I think Warren trounces Pence.  Biden might even prefer it that way- he said he's only in it to stop Trump.
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#22
Imabench
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@HistoryBuff
"You showed more polls. That is not evidence he did well"
If a sampling of people all over America were directly asked about candidates and their performances in debates, and they felt that he did well enough, then that is literally all the evidence that is needed to prove that he did well and is doing well in the opinion of Americans who are paying attention. 

Congratulations, youre actually a complete dipshit. 

#23
HistoryBuff
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@Imabench
i can't believe you need to keep hearing this. Just because a percentage of people believe something, does not make that thing reality. A sizable percentage of people believe alot of stupid things, like that we never landed on the moon or that the earth is flat. Opinion polls do not tell us if those things are true. 

opinion polls can tell you that people believe, today, that biden can beat trump. It tells you absolutely nothing about what opinion will be once trump begins tearing Biden to pieces. i attempted to engage in a discussion of the weaknesses of Biden that make him losing to trump likely, you pointed back to polls of what people think today. That is a useless discussion to have because those polls are certainly going to move.

I pointed to real examples of biden being confused, disoriented and just plain nuts in some cases. You pointed to polls where people said they would still vote for him. That doesn't tell you anything about why they would still vote for him. Maybe they didn't watch the debate, maybe they only saw clips on MSNBC that showed Biden make sense, maybe the only thing they know about him is that he was Obama's VP. In all of those cases, the moment they see the issues I attempted to highlight to you, they would be repulsed by Biden. But to you, Biden's deficiencies as a candidate are somehow not relevant. All that matters is that the polling today shows that about 30% of people don't see those deficiencies. 

Polling is a useful tool. But to pretend that you can ignore the rest of reality and only look at polling is foolish. I'm sorry you think that looking objectively at the candidates makes people a "dipshit". You can go back to drinking the MSNBC cool aid now. Or are you more of a fox news man?

#24
Greyparrot
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DNC isn't going to listen to smelly Walmart Biden supporters in the historically racist South.
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#25
Imabench
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"Just because a percentage of people believe something, does not make that thing reality"

When it comes to indicating who is doing the best in a primary contest that is decided by what people believe, it does. 

Retard
#26
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@Imabench
Why not just debate with me about why Biden is better than Warren? I'm not going to 'snap' over a heated debate on something, but you seem to be snapping and calling people retards left right and centre fairly unprovoked. I won't bite back or whatever, I'd like to understand how you can even hold Biden to any level near Warren as a proper Democrat. I don't even think Biden is a Democrat, in my eyes he's just a left-leaning Republican who happens to be in the wrong party and staying in it for his career's sake.
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#27
Imabench
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@RationalMadman
To answer the main question: I dont necessarily believe that Biden is 'better' than Warren..... While Warren may certainly have and support policies I prefer over what Biden campaigns on, the only reasons I support him more are 1) Because his policies are more likely to get implemented since on average he is more centrist than Warren. 2) Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar, who I like more than Biden, have only slightly above 0% chance of winning the nomination, and 3) My free time on thsi site is so sporadic I cant commit myself o a lengthy debate...... Sometimes I am on here a decent amount of time, other times I am on between the hours of midnight and 2am every 4th day. 

#28
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@Imabench
I understand the whole 'realistic to be implemented' angle. Warren is very realistic in her aims, unlike Yang and Sanders. She understand what the President can and can't make happen and precisely how to work around the crony funders of campaigns who have a series of "you owe us" policies in mind. She is crowd-funded more so than even Sanders. She takes donations and is funded by very left-leaning organisations if it isn't individual.
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#29
Imabench
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Update: In addition to Florida, Texas, South Carolina, and Georgia being strongly in Biden's corner, North Carolina has released its first state poll on the Dem Primary in quite a while, and in that state Biden enjoys a semi-comfortable lead 31% to 20% to 15% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6874.html 

That lead is far from a given to hold for him compared to what we've seen in other states, but North Carolina is far more purple and centrist then its neighbors such as South Carolina and Tennessee. If Biden continues to do well in the South, polls out of NC indicates that Biden could walk away with this state as well, adding another hefty prize to his delegate count since NC is the 9th biggest state in the US 

Interestingly, recent polls in California, Ohio, and New Hampshire have also come out where Biden performs impressively as well. In California he is 1 point behind Warren and 1 point ahead of Sanders despite the liberal leftist reputation of the state ( https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/ ) and in Ohio's first released poll in almost forever, Biden leads Sanders by 2 points and Warren by 8 points ( https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-6873.html ) 

Most impressively, in the state of New Hampshire that borders both Sanders' home state of Vermont and Warren's home state of Massachusetts, Biden is safely in second and competing for first against Warren, where he averages 24% to Warren's 25% while Sanders is suffering with just 11%! https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

With Biden's dominance in the south and surprising ability to hang around in both swing states and ultra liberal states, just a few surprise victories in these close contests would definitely be enough to put him over the top and give him the nomination barring an early withdrawal from Warren or Sanders. 


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#30
Imabench
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Super minor update: Another poll from North Carolina conducted about a week ago has been released and it holds tremendous news for Biden as a candidate. 

Previously in the state (Mid September) it was Biden 31%, Sanders 20%, and Warren 15%.... Now the numbers have improved in Biden's favor, he currently leads the state with 39% while Warren has 22% and Sanders caved in to 6%... (Buttigieg pulled in 9%) https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6874.html#polls

The 8% gain by Biden and 7% gain by Warren both appear to came from the 14% that Bernie lost, which now puts him well below the 15% requirement needed to actually win delegates from a state contest in the primary (as discussed in one of my other threads) 

This strongly reinforces the perception that Biden effectively has the southern United States on complete lockdown, and a handful of surprise victories in other states like Ohio or Illinois would likely be enough to propel Biden into the general election as the Dem nominee