I thought about making this a general 'predictions thread' where people can post their theories and outcomes of 2020 electoral stuff, but there was something else I wanted to talk about instead that I didn't want to shove into my primary thread that I update every now and then.
While on RCP, the site I use to check on primary polls, I found out that the home page only lists the primaries from Iowa through Massachusetts at the top, since those are the first primaries that will actually take place and therefore have substantial influence and importance on the rest of the race.... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Turns out though that the site still collects polling data from other states outside of the first primaries, which you can find in the general ongoing section shown here:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/
It was while prowling through this list that I found polls from other states and noticed a remarkable trend, hence leading to the title of this thread. Joe Biden holds such massive leads in the southern states that I am willing to believe he will ultimately win the nomination, due to the size of his lead in these states as well as the size of the states as well.
The four states I want to highlight are arguably the three most important states in the south that will be voting.... Florida, Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina. Whlie South Carolina is hardly the largest state in the south, because it's one of the first primaries to be held, it still holds great importance.
In South Carolina, Biden has regularly averaged around 40% in the three polls that were taken between September and October. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html Both Warren and Sanders in the same polls are hovering only slightly above 15%, meaning that their combined support if one of them dropped out would still be far short of enough to beat Biden in the state..... Regardless of how close or badly Biden might lose in Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada, he can almost certainly bank on a strong win in South Carolina to revamp his campaign and prepare to stay in the race for a long time.
In Texas, which actually is two states after South Carolina and is fairly early in the primary contest, Biden is somewhere between 25% and 30%.... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-6875.html This normally would make it competitive since Sanders and Warren also poll in that range in some states, but Texas is different because another candidate is standing in the way: Beto O'Rourke, who is polling at around the same rate as Sanders and Warren near 15%.... While Sanders and Warren will do well enough in the early states to hang around in the primary, Beto might not.... Beto only polls around 3% max in national polls and only gets a bump in Texas because it's his home state..... If he falters early in some states, and hard too, he could pull out of the race before Texas comes up to vote.... Even Jeb Bush pulled out right after South Carolina in 2016, and he had a far bigger war chest and name recognition than O'Rourke..... If Beto drops out, his support liekly goes towards Biden. If he tries to stay in, his same supporters may see him doing poorly in earlier states and transfer to Biden anyways. If nothing at all happens, Biden still holds double digit leads over the rest of the competition, and will be able to score a massive haul of delegates by winning the state.
In Florida, Biden pulled in a whopping 34% in the most recent poll, and topped 40% several months earlier https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-6847.html While Warren has polled better in the state going from 14% to 24%, Sanders has been flatlining at 14%, and did about as shitty as that the last Florida primary in 2016 where Hillary won 64% to 33% when it was just her and Sanders...... Seince Biden polls very well with older voters, Florida being a giant retirement state favors Biden in this contest, meaning that the massive number of delegates to be won in Florida is Biden's to lose, which he likely wont.
Finally in Georgia, the lead Biden holds in that state mirrors his lead margin in South Carolina. A recent poll showed Biden getting 41% of the vote in the whole state whlie Warren only gets 17% and Sanders falls to 8% https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ga/georgia_democratic_primary-6953.html
The South belongs to Biden, which is remarkably similar to the last Dem Primary between Hillary and Sanders. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries In 2016, Hillary cleaned up in southern states, cleaning up across the board while Sanders struggled. If we assume Georgia and South Carolina are similar to other states nearby such as Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky, etc, then we can assume that Biden will clean up in those states given his massive leads he holds in states similar to those ones (Georgia and South Carolina in particular)..... Due to the population size in southern conservative states, Biden's ownership of races in these states could very well deliver him the nomination since other states that swing more liberal could be divided between Sanders, Warren, or even Biden himself if he pulls off a surprise win every now and then.