Trump's log was released today, will he be impeached. Discuss.
He won't be impeached. pass the house cause the butterfly dems want him out cause they will lose the presidency to Trump. Won't pass the Senate
Trump Impeachment Inquiry (Discussion)
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@Vader
Now that the investigation has started, they will find that trump has committed crimes. We already know that he is guilty of at least 8 crimes as per the mueler report. The memo released today (please note it wasn't at transcript, they had a disclaimer saying the text wasn't exactly the same) says very clearly that Trump asked a foreign government to interfere in a US election, that is crime. He withheld 400 million which had been appropriated by congress, alleged to increase pressure on Ukraine to find or create dirt on biden. that is anther, separate crime.
Once the investigation determines he is guilty of numerous crimes, the house will have no choice but to impeach him. So, barring some very weird twist, he will likely be impeached.
Will be found guilty and be removed from power by the senate is a different question. please note that being impeached by congress and convicted by the senate are separate things. It's possible the evidence that comes up in the inquiry will be enough to undermine Trump's support among his base. If that happens and there is a smoking gun then I think alot of republicans in the senate would love to watch trump go down in flames. However that is highly unlikely. Most trump supports are either so disconnected from reality that they honestly don't think he is a liar and a criminal, or they simply don't care that he is a liar and a criminal. So his support is unlikely to sink enough for the republicans in the senate to feel safe convicting him.
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@HistoryBuff
Republicans seem to favor the side of Trump on this one. I don't think that some of his party is going to vote him out personally, and I will be totally shocked if it does. The crimes may be there, but the votes are not
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@HistoryBuff
Unless Senate has some alterior motive to put Pence as POTUS, I do not think we will see an impeachment
The first interesting thing to note here is that the entire Senate unanimously passed a resolution to release the initial whistleblower complaint regarding the Ukraine incident. The fact that the GOP majority in the senate UNANIMOUSLY voted in favor of releasing the details regarding the scenario indicates one of two things, perhaps both:
1 - That the GOP in the Senate will not bend to every last crazy demand by the trump administration. IE withholding potential PR disasters from being released to protect Trump
2 - That the GOP are confident enough that an impeachment proceeding will not materialize out of the scandal, therefore it is okay to release it since they will just get flak for a few weeks or months before it passes with Trumps inevitable next fuck up.
Regardless of which one it is (probably both in my opinion), there simply isnt enough time to launch an impeachment process before the conclusion of the election. Bill Clinton's impeachment officially lasted 4 months, not including several additional months worth of time beforehand gathering evidence and investigating the whole thing, and all he did was have an affair with an intern..... The Watergate scandal, which is much closer in terms of size and complexity, that triggered impeachment proceedings against Nixon lasted ten months before Nixon opted to resign and cut the impeachment process short. Considering that Trump would never be able to bring himself to resign on his own, any impeachment proceedings against him would by default take up to a year or probably longer, and there simply isnt enough time to pull one off before election day.
What I see happening, if Dems are smart enough, is that simple 'inquiry's' like these to collect evidence of Trumps actions keep popping up every now and then in the coming months. There was speculation if an impeachment inquiry would be used to obtain trumps tax info, its currently being used regarding the Ukraine thing, I'm sure that Trump will fuck something else up and give Dems more ammo to dive into in the future.... They wont try to carry out an actual impeachment because that would turn the election from a referendum on trump's presidency to a referendum on the current scandal, which could get squirrely if shrouded in enough vague results like the Mueller investigation..... Instead what the Dems will do is sit on this info for a bit, keep it going with additional info requests every so often, and then should Trump win re-election in 2020, launch the impeachment proceedings during his second term.
If Trump gets re-elected, Dems will full charge go for impeachment since there would be nothing left to lose at this point. If he loses re-election, then it will probably be dropped and the scandals will just be footnotes of history used as ammo against future politicians who were compliant with the administration while it was in power.
TLDR version:
Wont happen before the election, will only happen after it if Trump gets re-elected.
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@Imabench
Yea either way its an Lose-Lose situation for Republicans everywhere. idk if we will see a Conservative Prez for a while which sucks cause liberal agenda is absolute garbage
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@Imabench
I was only for Trump bc of his anti liberal approach. He wasn't my first choice as a president (Kasich and Rubio were mine), but he was 2nd option was Trump. His policies were OK from my perspective. Nothing terrible to me, but overlook by his blatant horrible communication
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@Imabench
If Trump won the presidency, wouldn't it be very unlikely that the Dems would have the numbers in the House to impeach?
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@Vader
I actually think we're in a period now where a lot of presidents will only serve one term...
George W Bush, Bill Clinton, and Obama all won second terms. The last time 3 presidents in a row won re-election was back in the fuckin 1800's with Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe who won a second term all in a row.... After that it would be another 50 years before another president won re-election and got a second term (Grant, I don't count Lincoln since the country was still in Civil War in 1864 and weren't available to field a challenger)
Considering how candidates posture themselves mainly to be the antithesis of the previous administration these days, rather then campaign on their own merits, I also think that will factor into re-electability since its easier for candidates to get elected by comparing themselves to their foe rather then their own accomplishments. 'Ill be better then the other guy' doesn't carry over well as a message long term, but is pretty potent in the short term and has been used since the beginning of elections.
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@bmdrocks21
From the outset in 2020, sort of...... Dems probably will have the numbers in the House, but not the Senate, since worst case scenario for the GOP they only lose 2 or 3 seats tops..... However, If you look at the senators up for election in 2022 though, the GOP could lose a LOT of ground in the Senate and potentially face catastrophic losses.....
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina.... All of these states are contests that the GOP could potentially lose if resentment at the Trump administration continues to snowball over time.... Alabama even managed to be lost to the Dems in a special senate election back in 2017, if the GOP could slip up in Alabama of all places they could definitely lose a lot of the purple swing states up for grabs in 2020, right smack in the middle of Trumps second term.
Whether or not it would even be worth impeaching trump in the second half of a second term is worth a discussion, but i imagine if the Dems had the numbers they could give it a shot just as an ultimate 'fuck you' to Donald and try to put that stain on the Republican Party for the forseeable future.
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@Imabench
The real loser in all of this is Pelosi and all the moderate democrats in contested districts.
Pelosi masterfully orchestrated for 3 years investigations into impeachment without calling a vote for an inquiry, which allowed the far left to be satisfied with investigations and the moderated Dems to legitimately go to their districts and say "I didn't vote for this"
Those moderates will now have to defend their impeachment votes in contested races in 2020.
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@Greyparrot
The real loser in all of this is Pelosi and all the moderate democrats in contested districts.
That's great. All those moderate democrats need to be removed anyway. They are just republican sellouts pretending to be democrats. Hopefully they all get primaried and defeated by actual democrats.
The establishment Democrats need to learn that Neo-Liberalism is a failure. They have to stop fighting their own base and get behind real change. Either that or they need to go. The latest polls show that Bernie Sanders could beat trump in Texas, as well as most other places. The energy in the democratic party is the left, not what they consider "the center" (which actually right wing).
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@HistoryBuff
Socialists are real democrats?
I hate that when your party radicalizes, you pretend that human filth like Pelosi and that pedophile Joe Biden are really just Republicans. They are not. They are career politicians who didn't change with their party. A party which is going down a rather self-destructive, un-American route.
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@bmdrocks21
Democrats are socialists that will take our society into a dark and plummeting path of an un American society
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@Vader
Am I sensing some sarcasm?
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@Vader
Democrats are socialists that will take our society into a dark and plummeting path of an un American society
You do realize you already have socialism right? You have social security, old age pension, minimum wage, food stamps etc.
America has been a socialist society for decades. It has brought you wealth, security and increased the standard of living. All the left is talking about is improving and adding to the system you already have. It is the same sort of thing that virtually all other modern countries have been doing for decades. I'm not sure how anyone could describe taking care of sick people as a "dark and plummeting path".
I keep hearing talking points about how america is the greatest country, but that they can't implement the same protections for their people that other countries have had for a long time. Medical bankruptcy isn't a thing in most of the world. It is almost a uniquely american phenomena.
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@bmdrocks21
Nope. I am a conservative. Look at profile. Democrats are socialists
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@HistoryBuff
You have social security, old age pension,
It's going bankrupt.
minimum wage,
Killed jobs in every socialist dystopian state where enacted.
food stamps
Lowest participation rate in food giveaways since Obama.
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@Greyparrot
Because right wing republicans and right wing democrats haven't been properly funding it.It's going bankrupt.
Killed jobs in every socialist dystopian state where enacted.
If employers need to pay wages so low that it is impossible for the person to survive on them, then that company doesn't deserve to exist. If you need to pay wages so low that your employees are living below the poverty line in order to turn a profit, then you are a shitty business. Once you are out of the way a better business with a better business model can rise in it's place.
Lowest participation rate in food giveaways since Obama.
These were just examples. the intention was to show you that socialism has been a part of american society longer than you have been alive. Socialism IS american. It's just that the right wing and the Neo-Liberals have highjacked the terminology to try to pretend that the right wing is actually the center. When you provide people with left wing ideas without any kind of pre-framing, they love them. Medicare for all is wildly popular. But the right wing wants people to believe that it is a far left idea. Polls are suggesting it is a centrist idea.
These were just examples. the intention was to show you that socialism has been a part of american society longer than you have been alive.
Yah but America has been around a lot longer than FDR.
The nice thing about America is that we have the opportunity to discard bad ideas like Slavery and Socialism and Imperialism.
We don't actually have to wait for the entire country to look like California with homeless leaving feces in front of your house.
We actually don't have to wait for a Civil War either.
This is how you cheat to win an election. Remove the competition.
Oddly enough, I'm not talking about Trump getting dirt on Biden.
Really though, politics is in the sorriest state it has ever been. Maybe a sign that we are in for some drastic changes in the near future. I am not terribly optimistic.
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@Greyparrot
Yeah, and companies had free reign to abuse their employees which caused enough populist unrest to make FDR's changes needed. The height of american power and culture was totally intertwined with socialism. Pretending that socialism is un-american is insane. It is a core part of your political and economic identity.Yah but America has been around a lot longer than FDR.
This is how you cheat to win an election. Remove the competition.
What are you talking about? it wasn't clear.
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@HistoryBuff
Yeah, and companies had free reign to abuse their employees...
What companies? FDR destroyed them along with all the jobs.
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@Greyparrot
This is useless hyperbolic language. America's economy has grown many, many times over since FDR brought in those changes. You seem to be pretending that every single person in the US is unemployed.What companies? FDR destroyed them along with all the jobs.
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@HistoryBuff
his is useless hyperbolic language. America's economy has grown many, many times over since FDR brought in those changes. You seem to be pretending that every single person in the US is unemployed.
Oh, and companies have "free reign to abuse their employees" isn't hyperbolic?
You seem to be pretending that every single contract laborer can't work somewhere else or hire a lawyer for damages.
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@Greyparrot
Oh, and companies have "free reign to abuse their employees" isn't hyperbolic?
Actually no, it is quite accurate. Are you unaware of what employment was like in the early 20th century before "socialists" put labor protections in place? For example, the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire is an example of how a terrible company caused 146 of it's employees to burn to death. They locked all of the doors to prevent them from taking breaks while they earned their income which was little more than slave labor rates. Government regulations mean that this kind of stuff doesn't happen any more.
You seem to be pretending that every single contract laborer can't work somewhere else or hire a lawyer for damages.
If all companies were allowed to pay their workers a wage that would leave them below the poverty line, then where would they go? It's well and good to say they could find another job. But all companies want to pay as little as possible. They all would pay poverty wages and then there are no jobs to be had that they can actually feed their families on. At that point you are forcing a large percentage into the population into poverty so that rich people can earn more of a profit.
But we have veered seriously away from the topic of impeachment.
You're living in a fantasy world. They go to that company's competitor that pays more. Cartels don't exist in a competitive world. (that's the real world we live in.)If all companies were allowed to pay their workers a wage that would leave them below the poverty line, then where would they go?
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@HistoryBuff
Triangle Shirtwaist Factory fire is an example of ....
Example of what? A bad company getting away with doing something bad?
Pretty sure those owners lost their civil suit.
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@Greyparrot
You're living in a fantasy world. They go to that company's competitor that pays more. Cartels don't exist in a competitive world. (that's the real world we live in.)
No. We live in a world where corporations are greedy. They will only pay more if they absolutely have to. Since all companies can benefit by paying their employees as little as possible, they will do so. It doesn't require them to communicate with each other. Corporate greed is universal. If the government allowed them to, a large number of companies would pay wages that would driver their employees into poverty. If you think that companies will pay their employees more than the bare minimum, then it would appear you be you who lives in a fantasy world.
Example of what? A bad company getting away with doing something bad?Pretty sure those owners lost their civil suit.
They probably did. Does that make their employees less dead? Lawsuits after they killed them won't help the dead people. Regulations preventing them from killing them would have. And that is exactly what happened. This tragedy forced the government to step in and regulate. No more locking your employees in. You had to have escape routes in case of emergency. There is no telling how many thousands of lives have been saved by those regulations. This is a perfect example of why lawsuits can never replace regulation. Lawsuits would provide some financial compensation to the families who have already had their lives shattered. There would be nothing to prevent other companies from continuing to do the same things. Regulation meant this sort of thing would stop happening. No more people had to burn to death because their employer didn't want to let them leave.