Predict the 2020 dropout order

Jim Swalwell dropped out of the race on July 8th, and Tim Ryan recently suspended his campaign following the Dayton mass shooting in his home state (He says its temporary, but I have my doubts https://www.tribtoday.com/news/local-news/2019/08/ryan-suspends-his-campaign/). Last year in 2016, Rick Perry was the first person to drop out of the GOP primary race (September 10), so we may now be entering the period of time where the lesser known candidates in the primary start dropping off. 

Based on your own gut feelings and current poll numbers, who do you think will be the next candidate to drop out, and if you had to guess, who will follow after them? With 12 different candidates polling at 1%, its a pretty big crapshoot to really narrow own who will drop out when, but maybe someone will nail it and then get bragging rights for the next four years. 

(RCP polling for reference: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html)

So, in what order do you think the Dem candidates will drop out? Here's my guess: 

21 - Ryan (Recently suspended campaign) 

20 - Steve Bullock (Genuinely forgot he was even running in the first place) 

19 - Hickenlooper

18 - Bennet

17 - De Blasio 

16 - Williamson (Author, she'll drop out whenever she feels like it)

14 - Gillibrand 

13 - Delaney

12 - Steyer (Billionaire who recently entered the race, he'll stick around for a bit)  

11 - Klobuchar 

10 - Castro

9 - Gabbard

8 - Yang 

7 - Beto 

6 - Booker 

5 - Buttigieg 

4 - Warren

3 - Harris

2 - Sanders  

1 - Biden becomes the nominee

If you look at results showing who Dem voter's second picks would be after the main candidate they support drops out, there is a candidate who benefits the most: Biden. 

Of the voter bases that support Sanders, Warren, Harris, Beto, Booker, and Klobuchar, only Warren's voter base's second choice is someone other than Biden (They would prefer Sanders more, to no one's surprise). 

The fact that Biden already has a massive polling lead among more centrist-leaning Dems, combined with polls showing Biden is close to everyone's second favorite pick after the person they currently support, suggests that once candidates start dropping out, Biden will be the one who benefits the most from it...... With Sanders and Warren splitting the more left-leaning base deep into the primaries as well, and Harris kind of between the left wing faction and the more centrist faction, I don't see anyone putting together a base that can rival Biden's in time for the end of the primaries. 

So what do you think will be the dropout order if you had to put together a list? 

I don't care, I just know that if Trump wins this next election an absolutely horrific era of white supremacist shootings and much else will occur both domestically in the US and via ripple effect start to make the world more and more right-wing and it has to stop NOW or the Imperialist past we think will never happen again WILL HAPPEN and we WILL see a new Rome, led by the Trump-types which WILL NOT BE THWARTED EVER if they truly take power.

You think you know Illuminati, you think Trump is anti-establishment?! Stop that fucking bullshit, he IS THE ESTABLISHMENT and it is NO JOKE if he wins the next election what can snowball around the world; a series of hatred, divisions and unbelievable toxicity that a world war three will have to be prevented by a Roman Empire version 2... Which is complete dystopia.

So if I catch your drift, the US should keep hegemony over the world order and staunchly oppose the Russians so that nations of Europe remain weak and divided in the absence of a call to arms against a common threat.  Donald Trump should not be allowed to seek improved relations with Russia, and bitch about NATO.  Is that about right?

- Booker (As people learn about him, they move to Buttigieg/Harris)

You and Franklin can twist whatever you want. Warren is not a pro-gun white supremacist lunatic she is very much against all that, so I have zero clue why a person who 'says' they support her is doing that.

I could not give a damn about what a die hard Trump supporter says to twist the reality of how horrid his regime is and what it's doing to the US citizens and world as a whole. You can preach your BS as you want, just don't think for a single second I will fall for it or that the neutrals won't turn Dem when exposed to the truth.

I believe at this point, that 2020 is totally up for grabs.  I'm in the camp where Joe Biden is my second choice, and that he is a solid and competent candidate to nominate and run against Donald Trump.

I couldn't really understand what you were getting at in your first post, so I asked as best I could relate. I'm sorry if it came across offensively

Anyway, I support Warren but I guarantee you this is nothing to do with what a Denver lunatic thinks they support.

Warren's politics are very similar to my own, as were Hillary's. If not Warren, I'm open to Yang but Yang is not exactly understanding social democracy in practise. He has a utopian view of how to share and care and it will probably lead to a more centrist Dem in 20214 but this is absolutely fine by me as that's what I want (a centre-Dem).

USA is actually so hilarious because it thinks Yang is far left. No, Yang is left wing, so was Bernie. They are not 'far left' they are merely actual Left. Most Dems are right-leaning centrists relative to the world and all Republicans are pretty far Right, so US has a very skewed scaling that they won't even admit. Similarly, in Western Europe there exists no truly Right Wing majority Party (Western Europe doesn't include Russia even though it physically comes West). The Right Wing parties of Western European nations are left-leaning centrists, that's how much more left their skewing is than the US.

If you don't think the shootings and hatred spreading in the world today is as a result of the Trump and Milo-type fandom on social media, you don't know much of the Internet. Trump started a fad that seemed funny and stupid at first, it went from rude Internet Memes to dead bodies.

You support Warren, well so did the left wing shooter

The problem with Bernie as far as being successful is just the way he talks.  Of course its problematic to use the S word like a French sailor.  If he will ever be relevant on healthcare he is unwavering to a vision that is ahead of his time.  He is laser focused on the issues, which I like, but he tends not to open up much about his views and how he would go about things.  His family says things like "in a capitalist society".  He says things like "tax cuts for the rich" when he should be adopting Pelosi's "tossing them crumbs".   In the fairly recent past he discriminated against an economist, a number cruncher who defended a religious college by making employment decisions based on conformity to doctrine.  If I remember correctly, shortly after inquiring into their religious views and saying to the effect, "That is not what this country is supposed to be about".  I don't think he can win the primary elections, and Joe Biden is actually utilizing him in contrast.

The perceived spectrum in the United States is different than in Europe since we have a foundational commitment to liberty and justice.  The European brand of conservatism isn't associated with classical liberalism.  Really, we shouldn't be inviting their sort of social conservatism/progressivism into our political rhetoric.  We still have a more advanced system than some of their countries in that regard, having a long standing commitment to the separation of church and state, and our ruling class rejecting gradual transition from rulers selected by social hierarchy from the get-go.

You mean on economics though right? (UBI, economic mobility, healthcare etc...)   I'm not addressing this in my last paragraph.

What I mean by my last paragraph is that many people still don't have rights in the sense that Americans do in Europe.  They never developed a basic framework to build a free country, and the state is benevolent for the time being but not subjected to the people.  The people are subject to the favored party of the majority, and this is generally viewed as favorable to their previous condition.  We won't hardly discuss "burka bans" in the US.  People would look at you like you have two heads.  What we are thinking is only a worry in our social standing before God and the peers of our society.  That is totally separated from our politics. 

Why won't you discuss burqa bans? Do you know which wing Sharia and Islam are? I don't think you realise the super irony of the right-wing hating that religion when they are as right-wing as it gets.

People have far more safety and happiness as citizens of say, Germany or Netherlands, than they do as citizens of the US. Don't even get me started on how stupid aiming for 'freedom' instead of 'joy and safety' is.

Well I mean, its fine to discuss, but its still a relatively foreign concept for it to be a matter bandied about by the fed, or a state for that matter.  A dress code is something people agree to adhere to, and society is fulfilled independently of the state, which is formed in respect of the people.  People take that for granted.

Maybe it's because who someone supports has nothing to do with why they shot up a place.

Oh, it does though. From the guy in Norway who slaughtered so many schoolchildren on a pro-Liberal campaign schooltrip to 2019 NZ and America, it's all about ridding the world of humans that the Right Wing lunatics deem unworthy of being in their country.

Then why was the Dayton shooter an Elizabeth Warren supporter? Why did a Bernie Sanders supporter open fire on Republicans who were practicing baseball?

What is Warren's approach to gun control? That is how you can tell it's a fake supporter.

Bernie supporter clearly doesn't have a damn fucking clue what Bernie stands for either.

On the other hand, the white supremacist shooters and 'love my gun rights' maniacs who don't say they're right wing but blatantly are enjoying the privileges of such a stupid society that will let them get such weapons so easily all know precisely what Trump and the likes of him stand for... It's why they have their guns in the first place.

Don't dare to tell me gun control doesn't work and only leaves the criminals with guns. That's utter bullshit. Japan, South Korea, UK, Germany, Norway and Australia are 5 beautiful examples of just how effective gun control can be. Okay, if you want then remove Australia due to the recent thing in NZ but it's still so severely rare in the past decades of the nation(s) of Aussie and NZ.

Mass shootings happen under every president, not just the ones you love or hate the most. Get over it.

Liberal logic:

-There was a shooting done in the name of Islam.  Not all Muslims are terrorists.

-There was a shooting done in the name of Trump.  Every Trump supporter is a terrorist.

Oh I think you'll find I dislike Islam and find it extremely right-wing and conservative.

Perhaps statistics and massive increases don't apply when it's Trump?

who cares if the KKK goes from 3000 members to 4000? You're statistically more likely to be hit with a bicycle lock or milkshake from an Antifa fag than you are likely to meet a member of the KKK.

KKK are, and I can't believe I am saying this, not the main issue at this point. They have evolved to become lunatics via speech and influence as opposed to via violence.

And it's going to take a hell of alot more than the deaths of 1 passenger airliner to rewrite the Constitution. Last time we fundamentally rewrote the constitution it took 600,000 lives. Better strap in for some serious carnage boi.

The Constitution is about fighting the government, not murdering Innocents.

We had less suicidal crazy people when we had a sense of purpose as a nation. This problem is only going to get worse as technology advances to replace the human purpose for living. Government has no solution.

Getting rid of guns might have been a feasible aid at the technology level of the 1980's, but in 2020, you can manufacture a home arsenal of various mass killing devices at the speed of Wifi and amazon and bitcoin. 

A nuclear winter, natural massive volcano event, or asteroid impact may be required to restore a sense of purpose for humanity, otherwise, the robots won't even have to try to take us over. We will be begging them to do it.

Yet in Western Europe and other social democracies around the world no such issues happen nearly as often.