The new foreign Policy of the Trump administration and thucydides trap

There is a theory and I would say we should ignore the theory known as Thucydides trap. It essentially states that an established global power when faced with a rising power must fight. Foreign policy experts knowing of Thucydides trap are acting and talking as if an evential war with China will happen. WHen Thucydides trap is back tested its accurate less than 75% of the time, but it's part of the reason the United States doesn't tolerate rivals and part of would scares the geezers from the cold war era who still have a major influence in foreign policy.

The Trump team is essentially looking to avoid or win Thucydides trap with the following foreign policy changes. This is how the New World Order will look and you will begin to gradually see more and more shifts that represent this. First the United States will soften it's stance against Russia and split them from China by making us better economic partners than the CHinese. Notice the Russians still have some petty border disputes with China as well that get swept under the rug so there is some unnamed tension there. 

The United States will secure Greenland and cut off the Chinese ships that appear way to close to the coast. The Canadians also aren't doing much to scare off Chinese "drive bys" Which is why Trump is considering how he could either acquire Canada or get them to beef up security. The Panama Canal was recently removed of Chinese companies and replaced with ones loyal to the United States.

We are also going to hand off a lot of global security to the Europeans, while we personally will soften our stance on Russia the Europeans will slowly start to rearm so invest in american Arms companies since they will be forced to buy from us. Essentially America will merely exist to counter the Chinese and The Europeans will exist solely to counter Russia. Since the Chinese and Russia also have their hands in the middle east you can expect to see the Europeans help Americans and Israelis more in that region as well. 

So that's the new world order and how Trump will get rid of cold war politics and prevent Thucydide's trap.

TLDR

China < United STates

Russia < Europeans

Middle east/ Africa < Europe, United States Israel

south/Latin America < United States

China is disgusting. The only thing China and Russia are good for is enabling North Korea to become a superpower. China and Russia are just pawns of Kim Jong Un. Kim Jong Un gained more from Russian invasion of Ukraine than Russia did.

What you're saying about Europe, Russia, and our need to pivot is Asia is the conventional wisdom but I say we need to hold off for another year or two. One study has it that Russia lost 360,000 soldiers in Ukraine last year, which was roughly on par with the number of new recruits (and not counting people who retired from the Russian military when their contracts expired; when put together, the Russian army is probably shrinking).

Those numbers are insane. If the US had to suffer one year of that for a foreign war that we could tap out of at any time, we would indeed tap out, and perhaps lynch the President who got us into that mess for good measure. Now for an affordable cost we can make the Russians repeat that in 2025 and then a third time in 2026. We Americans will be shopping at the mall and eating fast food, while the Russians will be pushing their nation closer to the brink of collapse. Even if they replace all their soldiers and the regime survives, at some point they'll have none of the well-trained people from before the war left over. The new people have gotten like 5 weeks of training and only know how to do primitive meat grinder tactics like we're seeing in Ukraine.

Seriously, we'd have to be idiots to pass up on this once in a lifetime opportunity. Our mortal enemy has volunteered to let us bleed them dry without us having to risk our own necks in the process.

But the Greenland thing is stupid. We need some kind of intact alliance with Europe if this is to work. Making them pull their own weight is fine, because deep down they know that's what they are supposed to be doing, but imagine if the Canadians stole Alaska from us and then were like "Hey, let's stay allies".

And then there is everywhere that you didn't mention.

Though a 1984 Orwellian style world order does seem to be emerging. 

It feels sick to trade lives like that. There is two ways to destroy an event. One is to defeat him but another is to become friends. 

If they did it but it better secured us from threats it seems like a fair trade. Besides, Russian ships and Chinese ships are coming close enough to Greenland to be scary.  There is only 50k residents and so is they want to become American so they aren't taken over in a large scale war later on down the road, especially since it would literally have zero impact on any of the residents lives in any way that's even noticable but it creates more world peace, why would Greenland residents oppose it?

Especially if Trump makes an offer like one million dollars to every single resident if they vote yes on joining the United States in the name of securing world peace

I would be hopeful. Yes free speech did come close to ending in the United States and England is arresting people for wrong think. 

Yes many countries are looking to put big brother in charge of more things instead of of the people but some of that seems to be weakening.

Because they all want Greenland's natural resources.

Do you think that everything is just about humans squabbling over stuff until such times when the Earth is engulfed by the Sun.

Or are we endowed with greater objectives.

So it would be mutually beneficial? Not only would we better secure them but we would create great jobs in the area by building the infrastructure for mineral extraction?

Good for Greenland. I wish I lived there to take advantage of these rare opportunities, we give up resources we never had the capability to extract and develop for security and prosperity. That is actually awesome

Great points about bleeding russia out

I tend to think taking over Greenland and the Panama canal is crazy talk, but u definitely make a decent argument about it. Trump is the king at moving Overton windows. What was once unthinkable is now an option worth considering and debating. Trumps cult will move in any direction he says plus if his ideas r good ideas he can peel off a good bit of independent voters 

The middle east won't be pushed around like that. mark my words because in 204X, Iran will be the one calling the shots.

Right now Israel is getting the bad end of this, but it's coming to the rest of the west.

Look at the competitor countries in the International Olympiad in Informatics, and you will see that Iran has as many golds as Germany has silvers. But Germany joined all the way back in 1989! So shouldn't they be ahead?

Pretty much every year, Iran has won gold.

Basically, you take a nation of budding young hackers, and combine that with a ruler bent on nuclear proliferation, and what do you get?

I know the United States has some work to do. Its probably not a good thing that a hacker can make 100k working for the United States or legally sell a zero day for Iran and get 20 million for it