In 3 days, Germany will be holding its parliamentary (Bundestag) elections. The polls have AfD (right) in second place, and CDU (center-right) in first place. Right now AfD controls around 10-12% of seats, but it could plausibly rise above 20% when this is done.
I predict that if both the CDU and AfD perform well enough to win a combined 50% of seats, then the longstanding "firewall" against AfD will collapse.
This is due to two factors: first, the CDU has to some extent moved rightward in the past few years in a bid to court voters who would otherwise support AfD. Second, an ascendant AfD will cause the German left to panic. They've already psyched themselves into believing that your average AfD voter is a crypto-Nazi, even though this obviously isn't true, and after such an upset loss they'll scapegoat the CDU and start hurling Nazi accusations at them too.
In other words, the CDU post-election will have heightened expectations that the German left parties work with them to pass an at least vaguely right-wing agenda, and the German left parties will be more strongly inclined to refuse than ever before. Eventually the CDU will get frustrated enough to reach across the aisle and work with AfD parliamentarians to pass something.
Once that taboo has been violated once, it'll cease to exist. CDU will grow more amenable to the idea of cooperating with the AfD, while the German left parties will respond to this initial violation by doubling down on its refusal to work with the CDU. At this point, the CDU will be forced to team up with AfD to have a governing majority, and that will be that.
That's my prediction, anyway.
