Gunplay Mafia DP3

Author: Mharman
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#1
Mharman
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Round 3 begins in 3...2...1...

Lobby Focused Last DP

Austin - You are Map Objectives! You are a mechanic preventing players from roaming a little too far around the map, thus directing the game flow.

You are a Compulsive Roleblocker! Each night, you must select a player. That player will be prevented from using their night action. Upon failing to submit a night action, a random player will be chosen. If that random player if mafia, the roleblock will fail. If a random player is selected, you will not be told who. If you select a player, your roleblock will function as normal.

You win with the town.

In the Killfeed

Savant - You are Minimap Dots! You are a mechanic that displays a dot on the minimap, telling the player the location of gunfire.

You are a 2x Watcher! You have the ability to select a player. You will view who visited that player that night.

You win with the town.

Offline

Greyparrot - Mafia - Sniper - JOAT (1x Strongman, 2x Role Cop, 2x Car Thief)
Pie - Town - Deployable Cover - 2x Doctor
Austin - Town - Map Objectives - Compulsive Roleblocker
Savant - Town - Minimap Dots - 2x Watcher

Lobby List

1. Casey
2. Wylted
3. Vader
4. Lunatic
5. Whiteflame

Reminder

All townies have the following ability…

Faction Perk: Disciplined- Avoiding the wagon on the day of a mislynch, or being the hammer on a correct wagon makes your next night’s ability guaranteed to succeed.

DP Time

The DP ends on Tuesday, February 11, at 8:00pm EST.
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#2
Mharman
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@Lunatic
@Vader
@whiteflame
@WyIted
@Casey_Risk
I'VE GOT YOU IN MY SIGHTS
#3
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@Casey_Risk
So... wait. Why did Austin claim JK instead of just claiming Compulsive RB? Did he think that would be more believable?

Also, sadly, not surprised that Savant's dead. Killing the claimed Watcher makes a good deal of sense for scum.

Don't really like that WyIted went ahead and lynched without waiting for me to get online that night, though he seemed pretty fed up with waiting on the lynch. Not a great look for him even if he weren't common to nearly everyone's POE by the end of the last DP. 

As far as I'm aware (I might have missed it, so correct me if I'm wrong), we still don't have claims from Casey and Luna, and at this point, I'm not taking chances. I want claims from both of you.

#4
Vader
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Well it is safe to say I was pretty wrong about Austin. Yeah I know that I am probably going to have some suspicions on me during this DP. I will be out tonight so I can't respond to much but right now I think the obvious lynch in Wylted unless we somehow have any info that needs to be shared

Right now I'd say my strongest town read is probably Lunatic. I feel like he wouldn't have been so hard stuck to not lynch Austin if he scum and I think he's put into my solid town pile

I just find it really hard to scumread Casey for pushing so hard on Grey straight away. Even when I was partner's with her, she was never strongly scum reading me til the block happened. She also had sus on Austin going into DP2 as well. I just think doing that gambit so early on seems wasteful

My POE is WF and Wylted with a lean on Wylted. If I am not mistaken, he claimed a vanilla mid DP2, which just seems like a safe claim. Plus not to mention if he was scum and knew about there only being just a tracker, he would've likely wanted to kill Savant and force a mislynch on Austin so his theories don't come true

I think it's Wylted tbh. Unless there's evidence that suggests otherwise that's where my vote will likely be

Not going to be excited for the flack on that last lynch but it is deserved
#5
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I also think I was a bit paranoid from old games I played with where Speedrace would waive a kill and fake a claim to draw suspicion. Think that kind of clouded my judgement but hindsight is also a bitch
#6
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My POE is WF and Wylted with a lean on Wylted. If I am not mistaken, he claimed a vanilla mid DP2, which just seems like a safe claim. Plus not to mention if he was scum and knew about there only being just a tracker, he would've likely wanted to kill Savant and force a mislynch on Austin so his theories don't come true
Honestly, pretty baffled to be in your POE after I claimed Commuter. Considering that one of GP's JOAT roles was Car Thief, either a Commuter exists in this game, or Mharman just included the role for no reason.
#7
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Actually yeah you are right. My fault. I think I was stuck on just behavior analysis I didn't think about role


Yeah I think it has to be Wylted
#8
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That's the conclusion I'm coming to on this. I'd still like to get everyone's full claims at this point to make sure I'm not missing anything glaring.
#9
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Yep I agree. Obviously I am not placing a vote down right now but unless there is some really damning evidence I think it just has to be Wylted
#10
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Gonna be logging off for the night. Going out and won't be back til like late-ish
#11
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@whiteflame
So... wait. Why did Austin claim JK instead of just claiming Compulsive RB? Did he think that would be more believable?

Also, sadly, not surprised that Savant's dead. Killing the claimed Watcher makes a good deal of sense for scum.
My thoughts on the flips exactly.

As far as I'm aware (I might have missed it, so correct me if I'm wrong), we still don't have claims from Casey and Luna, and at this point, I'm not taking chances. I want claims from both of you.
Fair enough, I was going to claim anyway. I am a Ranking System, found in many games with online multiplayer to sort players into tiers based on their skill level. Because ranking systems have multiple different tiers, I have multiple different abilities and am therefore the Town JOAT. One of my abilities was actually a 1x Cop, which was a major part of why I didn't believe GP's claim and went after him so aggressively during DP1. I could have fullclaimed but still wanted the chance to use my ability during NP1. Unfortunately for me, I ended up choosing... Pie. So, that was a waste.

Last night, I used my other ability with investigative power, a 1x Motion Detector on Wylted. No motion detected, so either it's not him, or he's the Ninja. I'm leaning towards Vader being the partner.
#12
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Alright, so investigative JOAT. Considering that we've had a Watcher rather than a Tracker, the Motion Detector isn't out of the realm of possibility, especially a 1X. I've also just been townreading you for pushing GP so early, and I still do. I think if you weren't, you wouldn't have said that the Motion Detector showed nothing on WyIted.

All that being said, given that we have a Watcher and a Motion Detector, wouldn't be surprised if scum have a Ninja.
#13
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All that being said, given that we have a Watcher and a Motion Detector, wouldn't be surprised if scum have a Ninja.
Agreed, it's a pretty common addition in a game like this. And with all the roleblocking abilities that have been claimed already (your Commuter, Austin's RB, plus GP's Car Thief as well), I feel like this game was probably designed to punish town play that relies too heavily on abilities rather than behavioral reads.

Wylted being a Ninja is a possibility that I can't ignore, but so is Vader being the Ninja. The problem with either of these theories is that both of them had behavior early in DP1 that points toward them being town, Vader with his very quick Gravedigger claim, and Wylted with being quick to jump on the GP wagon. That being said, on balance, I think scum claiming something like Gravedigger given that they have a Ninja is somewhat more likely than hardbussing their partner DP1, which is why I lean Vader. (Also my gutread on Wylted as I've stated before. Ever since LOLOLOL Mafia, I've always trusted my gut on him.)
#14
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@Casey_Risk
Wylted being a Ninja is a possibility that I can't ignore, but so is Vader being the Ninja. The problem with either of these theories is that both of them had behavior early in DP1 that points toward them being town, Vader with his very quick Gravedigger claim, and Wylted with being quick to jump on the GP wagon. That being said, on balance, I think scum claiming something like Gravedigger given that they have a Ninja is somewhat more likely than hardbussing their partner DP1, which is why I lean Vader. (Also my gutread on Wylted as I've stated before. Ever since LOLOLOL Mafia, I've always trusted my gut on him.)
I'm not dismissing Vader as potential scum - he's in my POE right now - but I think it's important to recognize that Vader doing so would be incredibly strange as a means to cover for himself.

I gave the full logic here for why I don't think he'd claim Gravedigger as Ninja, but the short version is that I just don't buy that someone who would not be trackable at all would go out of their way to fake claim a role that tracks to the NK. We'd have to assume that Vader made a big mistake claiming a negative utility role that could not be mechanically proven. It's not impossible that he fumbled this that badly in an attempt to give an early SOP claim to make himself look townie, but I just don't buy that he'd choose this specific role instead of the usual suspects (e.g. Miller). Really, the only way I'd believe this is if he and GP made a mistake and believed they had each others' roles.

So while I agree that WyIted jumping on his own scum partner that early is surprising, it's also the easiest to explain.
#15
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Really, the only way I'd believe this is if he and GP made a mistake and believed they had each others' roles.
Well, something like that did happen in Pie's Recycled Roles. That is a fair point, though, more likely than not that didn't happen in this game. Though, it's also possible that there's just no Ninja. The town factional perk implies that scum have some sort of roleblocking ability, after all. It's not necessarily imbalanced for there to be no Ninja depending on what the partner has and what the scum factional perk is.
#16
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@whiteflame
I just know it's frustrating because I was right that a jailkeeper couldn't exist.

For future reference if anyone does lie just come clean at some point. It's no big deal
#17
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a night action, a random player will be chosen. If that random player if mafia, the roleblock will fail.
This explains why his testing of savant made no sense to me as far as how he went about it.


#18
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@Casey_Risk
Well, something like that did happen in Pie's Recycled Roles. That is a fair point, though, more likely than not that didn't happen in this game. Though, it's also possible that there's just no Ninja. The town factional perk implies that scum have some sort of roleblocking ability, after all. It's not necessarily imbalanced for there to be no Ninja depending on what the partner has and what the scum factional perk is.
Yeah, that's all possible, it's just hard to believe given that there are two tracking roles that there wouldn't be some capability by scum to scuttle it. I guess you could argue that the Car Thief can kind of do that, but that seems to be here to balance my role, not the Watcher or the Motion Detector. I wouldn't be surprised if scum had something to redirect or otherwise mess with a role instead, though that doesn't help narrow things down.

Regardless, I recognize that your result at least places WyIted in uncertain territory.
#19
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I think we should all full claim.now and lay out our actions and results to this point. Especially since it seems like most roles are 2x anyway and useless by now.
#20
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I think we should all full claim.now and lay out our actions and results to this point. Especially since it seems like most roles are 2x anyway and useless by now.
I agree, but there's literally no value to town for me to claim what I did with my role. I either used it or I didn't, I either have shots of my Commuter or I don't. If you think there's value for town to know those things, I'd like to know what that would be.

#21
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A large part of my scum read was because I felt like he was lying about his role.

I don't know if it's Vader or lunatic but I feel like lunatic thinking Austin is town, is pretty suspicious. I feel like he was so scummy you almost have to have inside information to put Austin in your town pile, but lunatic was also playing a lot of wifom with his logic and has does that routinely as town also .
#22
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Not you but everyone else. I agree not much value in getting more information from you
#23
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Also if it is X shot I don't think saying the number of shots is necessary unless the claim is suspicious
#24
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@whiteflame
So... wait. Why did Austin claim JK instead of just claiming Compulsive RB? Did he think that would be more believable?
I would have done the same if I was him. I think compulsive roleblocker sounds way scummier. Either way. Really frustrated that people didn't stick to the plan, it literally made 0 sense not to do it. You are confirmed town IG you get a pass but I want answers from the others. 
#25
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Anyways, I am Splash Damage, a mechanic that deals area effect damage. I am a 1x bookie. I didn't really get the justification for it, but mharman explained since weapons that deal splash damage are often used to guess where players are, the justification for guessing who the lynch is is based on that. 

I chose savant np1 despite not really scum reading him because I felt like he is usually a likely lynch target and I figured that was my best chance at getting the vig. 

A huge part of the reason I wanted to follow through with austins plan too was so I could get a confirmed vig by guessing austin np2. Apparently I was wrong about how bookie worked though, mharman said I was 1x which I thought applied to the killing ability only, not the guess. But yeah I guess my role is useless after guessing savant np1 as I used the x shot. 
#26
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Part of me wants to townread wylted for pushing austin so confidently, but part of me also thinks he is capable of doing that as scum. Dude was so fvcking caucky I hope that humble pie tastes good. Anyway, forcing himself as the hammer didn't do any favors especially over letting someone like savant do it. But if he really was that confident that austin was scum and it would end the game, maybe there's a world he just didn't care as town, but it was horrible play regardless.

Supa pisses me the fvck off. Literall ignored all the logic me and austin HAMMERED into him for hours last day phase about the math and logic of lynching outside of austin first, and in his responses was either just not understanding the logic cuz he kept misrepresenting our arguments, or was willfully ignoring it. Behaviorally, that was fvcking atrocious, and supa just looks soooooo bad for that sh1t. I'm the most pissed at him for not even trying to understand the logic, others at least understood it, Supa didn't feel like he even fvcking tried. I still have a really hard time buying that as scum his play with GP was to come right out and both insta claim, and his role looks very good as well with the existence of a watcher. Supa may be town, but I just can't excuse the behavior last day phase.

WF is town based on role.

Casey has a strong town case for him based on his role claim and his early push of GP. I don't want to dismiss a bus, but if he did bus that was a genius play. If wylted is scum I wouldn't be surprised if he was a ninja based on us having a watcher. 

Idk I need to think on things, but I think atm it's probably between wylted and supa, I am leaning stronger towards supa because of WIFOM reasons about wylteds behavior just being TOO cocky, but idk I guess he could be capable of that as scum. 
#27
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@WyIted
A large part of my scum read was because I felt like he was lying about his role.

I don't know if it's Vader or lunatic but I feel like lunatic thinking Austin is town, is pretty suspicious. I feel like he was so scummy you almost have to have inside information to put Austin in your town pile, but lunatic was also playing a lot of wifom with his logic and has does that routinely as town also .
Bro I had literal paragraphs of reasons to town read austin. He was so aggressive on the GP defense, he even went as far as to scum read the people pushing GP. Who the hell does that as scum? And who the hell claims jailkeeper directly after a doctor flip? Anyways, I hope that humble pie tasted real fvcking good ya sh1t.
#28
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Also I feel like a single vanilla does fit well into the balance structure of this game. And I know mharman wanted to balance this one well, based on his comment in the sign up thread about avoiding the disaster of his chaotic last game. 
#29
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I ended up coming back early and I have some thoughts I am going to say
#30
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Supa pisses me the fvck off. Literall ignored all the logic me and austin HAMMERED into him for hours last day phase about the math and logic of lynching outside of austin first, and in his responses was either just not understanding the logic cuz he kept misrepresenting our arguments, or was willfully ignoring it. Behaviorally, that was fvcking atrocious, and supa just looks soooooo bad for that sh1t. I'm the most pissed at him for not even trying to understand the logic, others at least understood it, Supa didn't feel like he even fvcking tried. I still have a really hard time buying that as scum his play with GP was to come right out and both insta claim, and his role looks very good as well with the existence of a watcher. Supa may be town, but I just can't excuse the behavior last day phase.
I won't say too much because I know I was wrong. I can accept being victory lapped about and admit that my logic was incorrect in hindsight and knowing what we know now. 

The part I am going to disagree is that I willfully "did not try to understand." I weighted options and everything. You claimed "ok once Wylted lynches I'm insta hammering Austin." You couldn't even use your role so that makes even MORE likely believe my logic. No one should be fully believed as town unless they are fully confirmed. What reason did I have to trust you that you were going to hammer Austin besides word? You may be a town read but I have no reason to trust that you would do and if Austin waived and framed someone like WF and said "ohhh then let's lynch Austin tmrw then." Sorry don't believe I was misrepresenting the arguments. 

So yes, my logic was wrong. I am a dumbass and Luna was right all hail Luna. But to say I was misrepresenting and willfully ignoring is just plain wrong. My top read was Austin and explained why I thought behaviorally he was scummy in DP1.