What we can do to make Ukraine unwinnable for Russia

Author: Swagnarok

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#1
Swagnarok
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It is Putin's hope that, with time, the West will get tired of propping up the Ukrainian military and throw in the towel. The best way to deter future Russian aggression is to prove this is not the case, or, if Ukraine does fall, to make sure the Russian people continue to face consequences after the last bullet has been fired. Here are some low-cost measures we could take to render more help to Ukraine than we are currently giving them:

#1. Wartime use of friendly soil
Russian POWs captured by Ukraine should be held in European prisons, and preferably guarded by Western personnel so that the Ukrainian manpower tied up in keeping them from escaping could be reallocated to the front lines. More importantly, it would ensure that Russia doesn't automatically get its POWs back by conquering Ukraine.
On this note Ukrainian should be allowed to set up armament factories in, say, Poland or Romania so that the good work of making defensive weapons can go on unimpeded by Russian bombs. Of course, they shouldn't be allowed to use these weapons before these have been shipped to Ukraine first. Ukrainian drone pilots should also be allowed to work from the safety of Europe or the United States, if this is practical. Finally, Ukrainian weapons that won't be used for a while should be kept under the safety of Polish or Romanian soil until such a time that they're needed again.

#2. Call Russia's Bluff
Ukraine should be allowed to use any weapon in its arsenal against military targets on Russian soil, regardless of where those weapons came from. Russia's been drawing nuclear red lines in the sand for the better part of the last 3 years, and every time that Ukraine crosses them nothing at all happens. Russia's existence virtually by definition cannot be threatened in this war, because Ukraine is weak and because Ukraine would be willing to make peace with Russia at any time, assuming they get their territory and people back.

#3. Contingency Plan
To signal to Putin that even conquering Ukraine won't spell an end to his troubles, the US and its First World allies should sign a treaty codifying into law this pledge: that a Ukrainian government-in-exile, if the country should fall, will be diplomatically recognized for at least 40 years after the fact, and that no sanctions levied against Russia during the war (such as the oil price cap) may be lifted unless the Ukrainian government, be it the current one or a government-in-exile, consents to a peace treaty first. This entity would also receive the necessary funding to sustain basic operations for 40 years, and its employees and leadership will be allowed to stay in a Western country.
Russian POWs, likewise, would never be released without the permission of the Ukrainian government-in-exile in this event, even if this meant their imprisonment for the next 40 years. Since these men are war criminals who invaded a peaceful country, and have probably committed murder in doing so, this outcome wouldn't be unjust. In the US it's not abnormal for a murderer to spend 40 years behind bars.

#4. Olympic Games
Related to #3, the West should pledge to exclude Russia from any Olympic games hosted on their soil, or boycott any Olympic games held elsewhere which does not include the restrictions placed on Russia in 2024, in the event that the war continues without a peace treaty which the Ukrainian government, be it the current one or a government-in-exile, consents to. The 2028 and 2032 summer Olympic games will be held in Los Angeles and Brisbane (Australia), respectively, while the 2026, 2030, and 2034 winter Olympics will also be held in Western countries. The bloc of countries which agreed to the aforementioned treaty should also clench the 2036 summer Olympic games and the 2038 winter Olympic games at the next round of bidding so that there's no chance of Russia participating before 2040 at the earliest, unless Putin agrees to peace with the Ukrainian government.

#5. Denmark
Denmark ought to permanently suspend passage through the Danish Straits for all Russian Navy ships. Furthermore, it should impound and ultimately seize Russian vessels identified as part of the "shadow fleet" which skirts the $60 price cap on oil (much of this activity begins in the Baltic Sea and passes through the Danish Straits). This is probably legal where proven through stuff like satellite imagery that said vessel has sold oil either directly or indirectly to countries party to the cap, including all EU member states. Since much of this fleet is uninsured, losing just one or two vessels could be a huge blow to the fleet's profitability.
Again, these terms ought to be enforced for so long as the Ukrainian government, be it the current one or a government-in-exile, has not signed a peace treaty with Russia.
#2
Best.Korea
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@Swagnarok
Russia's been drawing nuclear red lines in the sand for the better part of the last 3 years, and every time that Ukraine crosses them nothing at all happens. 
Well, lets keep pushing and hope nothing keeps happening. But out of curiosity, what happens if Russia nukes Ukraine?
Do we go to total nuclear war and end of the world, or do we just start pointing fingers at who is responsible that Ukraine got nuked?
Neither sound good, but if Ukraine is willing to get itself nuked, I guess it doesnt matter anyway.

The actual and only winning strategy is probably to lure Russia on Ukraine soil and have Ukraine fight guerilla warfare for decades until Russia leaves. Thats the only possible scenario where Ukraine doesnt get nuked or doesnt sign peace by giving up its territory to Russia.
#3
ADreamOfLiberty
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@Swagnarok
Since these men are war criminals who invaded a peaceful country, and have probably committed murder in doing so, this outcome wouldn't be unjust.
... and your definition of "war criminal" is?

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#4
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@ADreamOfLiberty
They took part in an illegal, unprovoked war of aggression. I'm using moral language here, not legal. Legally, I guess, the real estate involved would be like a consulate for Ukraine and the prison guards would have diplomatic immunity as they detained Russian POWs and shot those trying to escape. For this to work, the guards may have to be Ukrainians as opposed to Westerners, which would still accomplish the goal of keeping Russian POWs out of Russia's grasp.
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#6. Criminalization of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) Abroad
Putin should be given a deadline to end the war. After this deadline expires, the EU and Canada should designate the ROC to be a terrorist organization. This is legal for them to do; for example, Canada slapped the Proud Boys with this label a few years ago despite a lack of actual terrorist acts or plots by this group. Europe at large is one step removed from fascism anyway, so they might as well put this to good use. Likewise, an arrest warrant should be issued for Patriarch Kirill.
All properties of the ROC in Europe and Canada should be seized and handed over to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU). Ideally, the OCU would assign priests, bishops, and abbots who are against Russia's war in Ukraine. On Mount Athos, these new abbots should mandate that all monks under their charge sign a written statement condemning Putin's war; those who refuse should be defrocked, excommunicated, and finally deported from Greece if applicable. Where this would leave too few monks left to maintain the properties, the properties should be handed over to, say, the Greek Orthodox Church, erasing Russian presence from the holiest site in Eastern Orthodox Christianity. Which is all too fitting, since the ROC is not a Christian church in any sense of the word.
As for the threat of Russian retaliation, who cares? They're already shutting down Evangelical churches and persecuting believers. There's little point threatening to do something that you're already doing.

Finally, pursuant to the above, the West should grant asylum to top officials of the OCU should Ukraine fall to the Russian invaders, so that it can continue to wield spiritual authority over Russians abroad without having to fear reprisals from the Russian state.
#6
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@Swagnarok
They took part in an illegal, unprovoked war of aggression. I'm using moral language here, not legal.
Well "illegal" isn't really moral language.

Given how dogmatic you seem about the rest I have more than a little doubt about the mechanism by which you know (as opposed to have been told) there was no provocation.

All Iraq needed to do was be mean and apparently fail to track down terrorists in its territory and that counts as "provocation".


This is legal for them to do; for example, Canada slapped the Proud Boys with this label a few years ago despite a lack of actual terrorist acts or plots by this group.
"this is legal for them to do, look at when they didn't care about the facts". I'm all about the golden rule but the ROC is not the one who designated the proud boys terrorists.


All properties of the ROC in Europe and Canada should be seized and handed over to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU). Ideally, the OCU would assign priests, bishops, and abbots who are against Russia's war in Ukraine.
Why not the USA? Something about one of those pesky rules and regulations in the bill of freaking rights?


ROC is not a Christian church in any sense of the word.
You have really been taking a bath in that propaganda. Have they renounced Jesus Christ as the son of god and savior of the world? Or is the issue that they have political commentary you disagree with?


Finally, pursuant to the above, the West should grant asylum to top officials of the OCU should Ukraine fall to the Russian invaders
It would be hilarious if after letting in a millions of people fleeing from poverty, a few priests couldn't get in.
#7
WyIted
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Quick question. Why should we care if Russia is aggressive.  Literally just nuke them if they come to our front door but nothing else matters from what I CAN SEE
#8
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@WyIted
Why should we care if Russia is aggressive
I dont care. Even if Russia conquered entire Europe, it would be a problem for Russia to regulate it later. Besides, if Russia wants to waste its resources on bunch of local wars, it will only drain Russia.
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#9
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@ADreamOfLiberty
Well "illegal" isn't really moral language.
What I originally said is that they're war criminals. This is a legal term, but the average person understands it to have moral connotations as well. It brings to mind Srebrenica or Bucha, or the Einsatzgruppen going from village to village in Eastern Europe shooting unarmed Jews and Gypsies. It's worth saying that the Russians do indiscriminately bomb Ukrainian cities, and Ukrainian civilians do die in these attacks. But morally speaking, anyone who kills a Ukrainian soldier who didn't want to fight and would've rathered live in peace is a murderer.

Given how dogmatic you seem about the rest I have more than a little doubt about the mechanism by which you know (as opposed to have been told) there was no provocation.

Given that Russia started this war, the burden was on them to prove that a provocation happened. And they've yet to do so.

Putin had in 2022, and still has in 2024, access to every classified document put out by the Russian government. He's privy to all the conclusions reached by the Russian intelligence community. He could've declassified and published some piece of incriminating evidence against Ukraine if it existed. Heck, Putin could've doctored evidence if he wanted to, since his control over the Russian state is such that no government insiders would've refuted him. But he didn't even do that much. All he's done is babble nonsense about Nazis (Russia itself has a few neo-Nazi paramilitaries, but like in Ukraine they don't control the government) and nonexistent "biolabs". We're talking Trump-level nonsense from a man who by all accounts is supposed to be a hundred times more professional.

All Iraq needed to do was be mean and apparently fail to track down terrorists in its territory and that counts as "provocation".
Or, you know, be led by a bloodthirsty megalomanic who already tried to annex Kuwait, who used chemical weapons on his own people,  who led his country down a disastrous path of international isolation that saw half a million Iraqis starve to death, and who (as confirmed by the US government post-2003) tried to maintain the infrastructure to rebuild his WMD stockpile after sanctions were lifted.
What did Ukraine do? Where are the mass graves of dead Russian speaking women and children in Donbass? How many countries did Zelensky invade?

"this is legal for them to do, look at when they didn't care about the facts". I'm all about the golden rule but the ROC is not the one who designated the proud boys terrorists.

Look, Europe's a sketchy place. We both know that. Rule of law is weak, human rights are hardly respected, and they have zero intention of changing course. They might as well take advantage of the few perks that come with being fascist-lite, such as striking a heavy blow at their enemy in a way that America can't.

You have really been taking a bath in that propaganda. Have they renounced Jesus Christ as the son of god and savior of the world? Or is the issue that they have political commentary you disagree with?
The ROC has spent the last 20 years preaching "Russian world" ideology that justifies foreign aggression like in Ukraine, a war that's killed or wounded a million people. By priming the Russian people and government to think of violence as a good and glorious thing, they're co-responsible with Putin for the fact that this war happened. I don't know about you, but to me this sounds like the polar opposite of a Christian church.
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#10
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@WyIted
Say it's the zombie apocalypse, but so far there's just one zombie. Why interfere? Sure, he could bite other people and create more zombies, who themselves would create more, and so on, but you live far away enough that he won't be able to personally reach you. Why not just relax and do nothing?
#11
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@Swagnarok
Exactly. Seal the border and it's none of our business. You know Russia would never attack the United States right? Militarily they would be crushed. There is nothing they can do. In fact even if they were more powerful. If we do not mean them any harm than there is zero incentive for them to attack us
#12
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@Swagnarok

It brings to mind Srebrenica or Bucha, or the Einsatzgruppen going from village to village in Eastern Europe shooting unarmed Jews and Gypsies.
Yes... something that had to be proven to the public. Not just "look what uniform you are wearing, 40 years for what I think you probably did"


It's worth saying that the Russians do indiscriminately bomb Ukrainian cities, and Ukrainian civilians do die in these attacks.
Even if I believed that, if area bombing made a soldier a war criminal then what do you call RAF bomber command?

Do you have pilots as prisoners? Artillery crew? No you have paratroopers and infantry. So now the war crime is to be in the same army as people who commit war-crimes (that didn't use to be warcrimes).


But morally speaking, anyone who kills a Ukrainian soldier who didn't want to fight and would've rathered live in peace is a murderer.
Almost all soldiers would rather live in peace. When you can see through every piece of propaganda and escape a draft you'd be in a better position to judge.


Given how dogmatic you seem about the rest I have more than a little doubt about the mechanism by which you know (as opposed to have been told) there was no provocation.
Given that Russia started this war, the burden was on them to prove that a provocation happened.
I've seen more evidence that neo-nazis armed and condoned by the Ukrainian government attacked people on the Donbas than I've seen evidence of nuclear or biological weapons in Iraq.

The question is, do you care about proof?


Russia itself has a few neo-Nazi paramilitaries, but like in Ukraine they don't control the government
Does the government (of Russia) accidentally post photos of them with their nazi symbology? (because the government of Ukraine did) That would be interesting. This is all extra hilarious when you contrast it to people in the US desperately trying to call any right-tribe milita nazi and pointing to a symbol like the gadsden flag.

Did the government of Russia send an original nazi to the Canadian parliament to promote support for their war effort?


All Iraq needed to do was be mean and apparently fail to track down terrorists in its territory and that counts as "provocation".
Or, you know, be led by a bloodthirsty megalomanic who already tried to annex Kuwait, who used chemical weapons on his own people,  who led his country down a disastrous path of international isolation that saw half a million Iraqis starve to death,
Like I said, he was mean.  If the target is evil the attack is justified. I actually agree with that, but there is no such international law and I am certainly not convinced that Russia didn't see evil in what was happening in Kiev and the Donbas.


and who (as confirmed by the US government post-2003) tried to maintain the infrastructure to rebuild his WMD stockpile after sanctions were lifted.
Those "WMDs" were chemical. Calling mustard gas a "WMD" is bordering on absurdity. Tabun is worse but half as toxic as sarin which I would consider the weakest possible weapon that could be classed a "WMD".

"infrastructure" So the provocation was "He had roads and buildings and stuff"


I don't know about you, but to me this sounds like the polar opposite of a Christian church.
So you're not christian if you aren't moral according to Swagnarok. A better argument would be that you aren't christian unless you're a pacifist, of course then that would mean there are barely any Christians.
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#13
Swagnarok
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@WyIted
You know Russia would never attack the United States right? Militarily they would be crushed. 
Picture this. Russia invades Ukraine. Nobody helps them, and Ukraine rolls over and gets crushed.

Russia waits a few years. It rebuilds its army, and so does its puppet government in Ukraine. Then they invade Belarus. It rolls over. They wait a few months. Then Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus invade Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Nobody helps them. Russia waits a few months. Then it, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia invade Moldova and Romania.
Wait a few years. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, and Romania invade Poland. Wait a few years. Then they invade everything east of Germany. Wait a few years. Then Russia + the entirety of Eastern Europe invades Germany.

Wait a months. Then Russia, Eastern Europe, and Germany invade everything to the east of France, including Italy and Scandinavia.

They wait a little while to recover, then turn east. Russia + all of Europe to the east of France conquer Turkey. Then Russia + all of Europe to the east of France + Turkey conquers Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Mongolia. By now, the de facto Russia empire looks like this:


Give it another 10, 20 years and soon this will be a globe-spanning empire with a massive force garrisoned on America's doorstep. Would you rather America had to face down an invasion from this empire, or gave Ukraine some money to fight off Russia at stage one of Putin's attempted conquest?
#14
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@Swagnarok
Give it another 10, 20 years and soon this will be a globe-spanning empire with a massive force garrisoned on America's doorstep. Would you rather America had to face down an invasion from this empire, or gave Ukraine some money to fight off Russia at stage one of Putin's attempted conquest?
I am trying to think of some sort of cost benefit analysis where this makes sense to them. Literally what would they benefit from doing that? Putin has all the money and whores he could ever dream of. It doesn't make sense from a security standpoint either. 

I turn on CNN occasionally and the only argument that security analysts give because apparently this is the level of sophistication they operate at is thag Ukraine is Democratic. They don't even bring g up do mm into theory like you just mentioned or anything. 
#15
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@Swagnarok
They took part in an illegal, unprovoked war of aggression...

But morally speaking, anyone who kills a Ukrainian soldier who didn't want to fight and would've rathered live in peace is a murderer.
Honest question: Were you this upset in 2014 when Kiev illegally destroyed democracy in Ukraine, killing thousands to do it; or are some criminals worse than others?

The way you seem to frame this conflict seems overly simplistic.
#16
ebuc
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@Greyparrot
The way you seem to frame this conflict seems overly simplistic.

Get real OGP, as it is your views that are to simplistic since were talking many European countries who see Russia a tyrannical dictator who would not stop with only Ukraine in its land grabs and destruction of democratic freedoms.

Please move to Russia and get drafted --or in your case volunteer--   into Putin's military unnecessary war. 

You can still post at DArt if Putin will allow it. He may even encourage your posting here. Maybe you could get him to buy DArt and pay for hosting service.

Contact Trumpet also as Im sure he and you are in political alignment and may have a few bucks to pitch into DArt hosting payments.

And maybe even the Looney Laure Loomer lady would listen to you and pitch in a few bucks. 

OGP > Putin > Trumpet > Looney Laura Loomer > ? 

Yeah thats the ticket to saving DArt........Go OGP.....Save DArt Today......OGP for marketing.......OGP for president.......OGP Saves DArt....OGP...OGP

Orange Greyparrot today tommorrow and forever ours saviour.


#17
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@ebuc
What's so magical about Ukraine that they get a free pass to exile their democratically elected leaders and get praised for doing so?

Why do you think it was Putin that overthrew Ukrainian democracy in 2014? The guy that was exiled was open to negotiate with Putin!
#18
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Former first lady Melania Trump, who was born in Slovenia, another Eastern European country like Ukraine, has broken her silence on Vladimir Putin's military invasion.
"It is heartbreaking and horrific to see innocent people suffering. My thoughts and prayers are with the Ukrainian people. Please, if you can, donate to help them," Trump tweeted, along with a link to a donation page for the International Red Cross.


#19
Reece101
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When conservatives hear ‘immigrants’, they think of invasion. 

Maybe the left needs to start calling the Russian invasion an immigration problem if they want to win over the right. 
#20
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@Reece101
Maybe the left needs to start calling the Russian invasion an immigration problem if they want to win over the right

Reece,  I agree, it is just like when Jan 6th insurrection was called a visit by tourist.  Of course it is important to keep in mind in the following that the Russians and Jan 6th inurrectiontis were white aka caucasian peoples, aka people of privilege.

Georgia Nutter..." Georgia Rep. Andrew Clyde (R) suggested that the insurrection was far less serious than it’s been portrayed.

“Watching the TV footage of those who entered the Capitol and walked through Statuary Hall showed people in an orderly fashion staying between the stanchions and ropes taking videos and pictures,” Clyde said.

“You know, if you didn’t know the TV footage was a video from January the 6th, you would actually think it was a normal tourist visit.”....

..."Not only did five people die during the riot, but there are scores of videos and pictures showing insurrectionists attacking police officers, smashing windows and committing all sorts of other violence as they overran the Capitol building. (More than 100 officers were injured during the riot.)
If you haven’t seen the body camera footage from the assault of DC Metropolitan Police Officer Michael Fanone, you – and Clyde – should watch it. And then ask yourself if it was “a normal tourist visit.”...





#21
sadolite
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What's this "WE shit. I would like to go on record by saying I don't want my name connected to anything having to do with  the US Govt or Ukraine. The Ukraine and the US govt  in my opinion is one giant money laundering, child sex trafficking collection of pedophiles and perverts.