Indie Games Mafia [DP2]

Author: Mharman
Mafia

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#541
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@AustinL0926
Ok frick it, I'm going to roleclaim since it seems like the only way to get town off this insane wagon.

I am a x1 motivator. Once per game, I can motivate a player and allow them to act twice that night. Mechanically speaking, and in terms of my role PM, there literally has to be at least two active town roles. That's why I'm dead set on getting BK to survive the lynch: because he can protect himself and his top townread, thus implicitly confirming us both.
Okay again: that doesn’t confirm Korea as town. There could be other town PRs. Also assuming you didn’t motivate anyone last night, have you asked Mharman if the motivated individual can use the second action the same night? 
#542
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@WyIted
Problem. Bullish is almost certainly an active role and doctors can't usually self protect. 
Sigh
#543
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So BK If he is a doctor could perhaps self direct based on mharman allowing doctors to self protect un that other game.i can by it but looking at whiteflames role PM that game he Said "may protect other players" . So if eel the role pm could be written better.
#544
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@JoeBob
I know that behaviorally speaking, BK hasn't been looking great. But mechanics trumps behavioral reads. Someone can't be mafia if they, well, aren't mafia.

In my role PM, it was literally guaranteed that there were at least 2 town PR's. whiteflame died, no one has CC'd, and BK claimed a typical active PR that would be amiss to not have in this setup.

Furthermore, lynching BK hurts town immensely.

-You lose a likely confirmed town player
-You lose the chance to confirm me
-You likely lose me, the most widely townread player rn in the game

We'll head into a 3 v 2 situation where we have 2 mostly inactive players (Bullish, GP) and 2 players who might be mafia for all we know (Pie, Wylted). Does this sound good to you?

#545
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@WyIted
Yea
#546
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@JoeBob
Why do you townread Wylted?

And what do you think of the previous post?
#547
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@AustinL0926
Like I said, I think it’s either pie or b.k
If best Korea truly is town then I’ll vote pie, but he could be lying.

So then who do you want me to vote?
#548
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@AustinL0926
I don't townread Joe per se, but I'm less convinced of his scuminess than before, in light of Wylted acting as he has. He has been actively pushing a likely mislynch with everything he can. One thing I really scumread is someone taking the path of least resistance rather than considering less likely options, because that's what scum do when they want to look like helping town without actually helping it.

I am not against voting JoeBob if it saves BK.
Well right now that’s your only option. 
#549
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Behavioral reads trump everything lol. You know how many noobs I have defeated as scum by claiming I investigated a guilty on somebody at MYLO or I force a claim and CC them at MYLO. It's not just a Mylo thing. Sometimes you make a gambit early so your partner sees if they can play aggressively or are forced to be conservative
#550
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@Mharman
@WyIted
If you hypothetically had a doctor in this game could thy self protect? 
Adding to this: if a hypothetical motivator motivated a Town PR NP2, would the motivated player be able to use the second action NP2 or would they have to wait till NP3?
#551
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@AustinL0926
I townread Wylted because he trusts pie a little too much. I would say that means they are both mafia but what I think is going on is either 
A: they are both scum or town
Or b: pie has gained Wylteds trust
I am not saying wylted gaining pies trust based off of how at the beginning of the day B.K voted pie without much reason at the start. Which leads me to believe that they are trying to make us think that they are on opposing teams when in reality they are both scum. Similar thing pie did last round was argue with rational the whole day, which is what’s going on right now.

#552
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It’s either what I posted or it’s pie and Wylted as scum. Because once again, they trust eachother a bit too much. And the voting pie from b.k without much evidence could have just been a slip up. Which mean that b.k could actually be doctor.
#553
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@AustinL0926
You have one option right now because I am unconvinced that Wylted is scum:

Vote JoeBob because you scumread him more than BK who is town to you. 
#554
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@ILikePie5
We should just reward joebob for that effort and lynch korea
#555
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@WyIted
We should just reward joebob for that effort and lynch korea
I’m agree, but I want to hear Mharman’s answers to the questions. 
#556
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The reason I’m not including greyparrot or bullish is they haven’t said enough for me to see what they are on. And Austin has not had any slip ups that I read. So I am pretty sure that Austin is town but unsure about bullish and greyparrot.
#557
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@WyIted
Was it you or b.k that said something along the lines of he should know what he’s doing now. Because what you said there is throwing me off. You were content that I was it and then all of the sudden it’s off to best Korea.  I’m keeping my vote on best but if he’s town then I’m betting it’s you and pie.
#558
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@JoeBob
Stay online for a bit, about to post smth pretty important that should factor into ur decision making.
#559
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Prediction. Austin writes more cope to feed into his own confirmation bias
#560
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@AustinL0926
Ok, I’ll stay on for a bit longer. Not much though as it is midnight for me.
#561
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@JoeBob
Ok, I'll keep it simple. Playing mafia is about playing to your win condition. You do that to maximize your winning chances. Playing mafia is not about surviving for the longest, or even lynching who you think is most likely to be scum at the current moment; it's simply that those two things tend to be correlated with winning.

Let's look at four scenarios where we lynch BK or Wylted, and they are scum or town in turn.

Scenario 1: BK is scum, we lynch

-We take out 1 of 2 scummies
-I admit that I f*****d up
-Probably Wylted or Pie dies during the night

Sounds okay right? The problem is that this is mechanically unlikely based on what we know about the game setup and the claims.

Scenario 2: BK is innocent, we lynch

-We lose our last power role
-I die during the night because no one protects me and scum takes out the most townread player
-We go into a 3 v 2 situation as town where the 2 scum can easily manipulate town into mislynching and losing, as there are ZERO town-confirmed players

Scenario 3: Wylted is scum, we lynch

-We take out 1 of 2 scummies
-I motivate BK, he protects us both
-We head into 4 v 1 as town with 2 town-confirmed roles

Scenario 4: Wylted is innocent, we lynch

-We confirm Pie as likely town
-I motivate BK, he protects us both
-We head into 3 v 2 as town with 2 town-confirmed roles + pie, allowing us to POE the last two scum
#562
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@JoeBob
Even if you think BK is more likely to be scum (and I've shown that's not the case), there is far more risk in lynching BK. If we mislynch, we basically lose for town right then and there.

In contrast, if we lynch Wylted, we guarantee heading into the next DP with at least 2 town-confirmed roles and at least 1 likely town.

It's up to you now. Play to your wincon.
#563
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@ILikePie5
Can you just hammer before this genius talks us into a bad lynch
#564
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I agree it’s more risk. But what snakes you think it’s Wylted and not pie?
#565
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@JoeBob
I think both of them are sus, but we have 2 votes on wylted and none on pie.

Also I know you sus pie, be aware he might come online and hammer at any moment.
#566
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Fair
If Wylted is innocent then I’m betting it’s you and b.k
Unvote

Vtl Wylted
#567
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VTL Wylted
#568
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fuck it we ball
#569
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If Wylted is innocent I'm going to look really really dumb
#570
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@AustinL0926
You would